USA vs Dominican Republic Home Run Picks for the World Baseball Classic Semifinal

Shawn Krest - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Shawn Krest • Betting Analyst 20+ years betting experience
Updated: Mar 15, 2026 , 12:52 PM ET • 4 min read

Both teams possess power up and down the lineup, with Aaron Judge and Julio Rodriguez set to go long tonight.

Aaron Judge (99) hits a two run home run in the third inning against Mexico at Daikin Park.
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Aaron Judge (99) hits a two run home run in the third inning against Mexico at Daikin Park.

So far in this World Baseball Classic, 21 different players have hit at least two home runs. More than one-third of them come from these teams.

I have two home run hitters in mind for tonight's semifinal matchup, putting the focus on Aaron Judge and Julio Rodriguez.

For more World Baseball Classic best bets, read our complete USA vs. Dominican Republic predictions for March 15.

USA home run pick

Aaron Judge (+185 at DraftKings)

It should come as no surprise that the best right-handed hitter of our era is the biggest favorite to go yard in the game.

Aaron Judge has two homers in the WBC already, and he has three hits, a double, and a homer in his five career at-bats against Luis Severino.

Judge has a 1.072 OPS in the WBC and had a 1.285 OPS with two homers in five pre-WBC spring training games. The Yankees' slugger is in midseason form already. 

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Dominican Republic home run pick

Julio Rodriguez (+425 at DraftKings)

Rodriguez is a long shot, but offers great value at +425.

He's batting just .200 in the WBC but has one home run to his name. He also has two career extra-base hits against Skenes, while no other D.R. player on the home run board even has a hit against him...

Rodriguez had a 1.556 OPS in his pre-WBC spring training games, and he's in a great spot to go yard tonight.

How to watch USA vs Dominican Republic and game info

Location LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL
Date Sunday, March 15, 2026
First pitch 8:00 p.m. ET
TV FS1

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst

Since quitting his job as bank assistant vice-president in 2000, Shawn has covered Final Fours, Super Bowls, World Series games and title fights in boxing and UFC. His work has appeared on ESPN, MLB.com, Sports Illustrated and dozens of other outlets. His book, Baseball Meat Market was published in 2018. He lives in North Carolina with his dog Toby, eight turtles, and wife.

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