There should be an enthralling Game 6 in front of us this evening as the Rays look to punch their ticket to the next round, and the Guardians do everything they can to keep their season alive.
Here are my favorite Guardians vs. Rays prop picks and MLB picks for today's matchup.
Best Guardians vs Rays props
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick | Probability |
|---|---|
 Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI |
51% |
| Rays first five winner |
48% |
 Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI |
42% |
Prop pick #1: Junior Caminero Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI
The third-highest-rated hitter in this matchup, per Batters-Box, is Tampa Bay Rays star Junior Caminero.
Not only is he getting an elite rating, but Caminero also covers more than 85% of Cleveland Guardians right-hander Tanner Bibee's pitch mix. The Guardians are set to use an opener (Shawn Armstrong), but it seems highly likely we get a Bibee sighting. Through 47 elite ratings this season, Caminero has cleared this prop more than 57% of the time, gone over 3+ HRR 36% of the time, and homered in 23.4% of those ratings.
Bibee's last postseason appearance came against the Chicago White Sox in the ALDS, when he was pulled after facing just three batters and allowing two runs.
Overall this season, Bibee has been struggling against right-handed hitters, especially on the road, where opposing righties are generating a nearly 44% hard-hit rate and a 62.5% elevation rate.
Back at home with a chance to close out the series, Caminero should make a statement this evening.
This is playable up to 55%.
Prop pick #2: Rays first five winner
I'm confident in the Rays coming out on top early here. But if you don't want to worry about pitching, take the Rays' first-five team total over 1.5 instead. It should be a very reasonable price to pay for two runs.
With this being a bullpen game for the Guardians, we're likely to see Bibee and Slade Cecconi, two pitchers we've been fading all season long. The Rays' best hitters have been humming over the last few games, with Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Díaz, and Caminero stepping up. They should propel this team to at least a few early runs, and get the Rays a lead quickly against two arms that give up a lot of quality contact.
In his last three regular-season road outings, Bibee allowed a barrel rate above 15%, a ground-ball rate of just 32.7%, and he posted a 5.29 ERA. Again, it's been 11 days since his last appearance, and I expect these soaring Rays bats to get on top of him early. This is playable to 50%.
Our Guardians vs. Rays best bets are also in part siding with Tampa to end the series tonight.
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Prop pick #3: Chase DeLauter Over 1.5 hits, runs, RBI
One of the most consistent hitters for the Guardians this series has been their young stud Chase DeLauter, who owns a .297 BA, .319 xBA, and .371 wOBA.
DeLauter draws Freddy Peralta, who has been lights out this postseason. However, the hurler has posted some underlying metrics against left-handed hitters that DeLauter could exploit. The Rays' right-hander is allowing lefties to generate a barrel rate above 15% and a 70% elevation rate, while surrendering a .312 xBA and .587 xSLG.
This is playable to 45%.
Our Chris Hatfield is also backing DeLauter in his Guardians vs. Rays prediction.
- Prop picks: 561-1139, -2.6 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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