North Dakota State visits New Mexico in Week 8 for a late-night Mountain West Conference showdown at University Stadium in Albuquerque.
Kickoff is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET on The CW.
The Bison are 4.5-point underdogs, but my North Dakota State vs. New Mexico prediction backs them to keep things competitive and potentially pull off an upset in adverse weather conditions.
Here's how I'm approaching the spread, total, and combo, along with more college football picks for Saturday.
TOP PICK
Who will win North Dakota State vs New Mexico: North Dakota State +4.5
Playable up to 53%.
North Dakota State has outgained its opponents in six of its first seven games this season, including each of its last four contests.
The Bison's only outright loss in 2026 came on the road against UNLV, a game in which they finished with three more first downs and 45 more total yards than the Rebels.
North Dakota State was the better team for much of that matchup but threw three interceptions, missed a field goal, and turned the ball over on downs twice. UNLV scored 10 of its 13 points off turnovers and didn't have a single offensive drive that gained more than 50 yards.
New Mexico remains undefeated in conference play, but the Lobos face a difficult scheduling spot after playing in Hawaii in Week 7.
North Dakota State is a talented team with a significant travel advantage in this matchup, despite being the road underdog.
COVERS INTEL: North Dakota State head coach Tim Polasek faced New Mexico three times from 2021 to 2023 as Wyoming's offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach. He went 2-1 straight up in those meetings, including a victory in Albuquerque in 2022.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico Over/Under pick: Under 40.5
Playable up to 52%.
Pro Football Focus grades North Dakota State as the 22nd-best defense in the nation, and the numbers back up that ranking. The Bison have allowed 17 points or fewer in six of their seven games this season.
New Mexico's defense has earned even higher marks from Pro Football Focus, ranking 19th nationally. The Lobos have held opponents to 10 points or fewer in five of their six games this fall.
They also held No. 24 Oklahoma to just 14 first downs and 299 yards of total offense in a road matchup back in September.
Both defenses could get some additional help from the weather on Saturday night. Rain and wind figure to make downfield passing difficult, potentially forcing both offenses to become more one-dimensional.
With two highly rated defenses and challenging conditions, I'm expecting a low-scoring slugfest in this Mountain West showdown.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico combo
Playable up to 22%.
This is the type of game North Dakota State is built to win. The Bison don't have a high-powered offense, but their defense is capable of making life difficult for any opponent.
Rain and wind should slow down both offenses, leading to a lower-scoring affair. If North Dakota State can keep the game close, there's a good chance this stays below the total.
More risk-averse bettors could also tease the underdog and total to create additional breathing room on both legs of this combo.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico combo
- North Dakota State +4.5
- Under 40.5
- Top picks: 7-4, +2.55 units
- Combos: 5-8, +1.47 units
North Dakota State vs New Mexico odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: North Dakota State +4.5 | New Mexico -4.5
- Over/Under: Over 40.5 (52%) | Under 40.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: North Dakota State 36% | New Mexico 65%
For the full slate of college football matchups, check out our college football odds board!
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North Dakota State vs New Mexico weather
Rain and wind could play a significant role in Saturday night's matchup. The forecast calls for an 82% chance of rain, with sustained winds exceeding 10 mph.
Those conditions could make passing more difficult and force both teams to rely more heavily on their ground games.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date information on every matchup.
North Dakota State vs New Mexico trend to know
The Bison are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as underdogs. Find more college football betting trends for North Dakota State vs. New Mexico.
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How to watch North Dakota State vs New Mexico
| Location | University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico |
| Date | Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | The CW |
North Dakota State vs New Mexico latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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