Happy Friday Junior, folks! Read that again: I did not say "Happy Friday."
Despite it being a getaway day, there are a few guys I'm in love with to have success at the dish today: Hunter Goodman, Miguel Vargas, and Randal Grichuk.
Here's how I'm targeting their MLB player props on June 11.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Hunter Goodman |
Over 1.5 total bases | -102 |
 Miguel Vargas |
Over 1.5 total bases | +104 |
| Randal Grichuk |
Over 1.5 total bases | +117 |
Hunter Goodman Over 1.5 total bases (-102)
Over at Coors Field, Colorado Rockies catcher Hunter Goodman finds himself in yet another great matchup against Chicago Cubs right-hander Edward Cabrera.
In the default ratings on Batters-Box, Goodman owns a strong rating, with that data dating back to the start of his career. While the sophomore catcher carries an elite rating in the current season timeframe, his trends toward a strong rating are still worth noting.
Across 30 strong ratings, Goodman has left the yard 26.67% of the time and surpassed this prop in 50% of those games. Not only that, but the Rockies' backstop owns an 87.4% arsenal coverage rating against Cabrera's pitch mix.
The 26-year-old got off to a slow start this season, but he has turned things around over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, batting .304 with a 1.000 SLG and 1.433 OPS while producing a 55.6% hard-hit rate and 33.5% barrel rate.
Since returning from injury, Cabrera has not exactly been a pitcher I'm looking to back.
Against the last 30 right-handed hitters he's faced, he's allowed 47.4% hard contact, a 21.1% barrel rate, and a 52.7% elevation rate. Those hitters have also posted a .311 xBA, .681 xSLG, and .426 xwOBA during that stretch.
At nearly even money for two bases at Coors Field, I'd play this down to -110 if I had to.
- Time: 3:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marquee, COLR
Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 total bases (+104)
The next two guys I'm going to boast about offer a ton of value this evening. Sure, they might not even play due to the thunderstorms expected to roll through the South Side of Chicago, but I don't look at, nor do I care about, the weather.
14 mph winds blowing out, though. Eyes emoji
With how well Chicago White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas has been playing this season — especially against southpaws — it's hard to pass up the value on him tonight.
For those worried about the rain, I actually love a hitter even more if there's a delay. Making a starting pitcher go through his routine twice before the first pitch can throw everything out of whack.
Vargas enters today with a favorable matchup rating on Batters-Box in the default ratings dating back three seasons. More importantly, he owns an elite rating in the current season timeframe.
He also carries a 95.3% arsenal coverage rating against Atlanta Braves left-hander Martin Perez's pitch mix.
The soon-to-be All-Star has been torching lefties. Over his last 30 plate appearances against them, Vargas owns a .409 batting average, .682 slugging percentage, and a 1.234 OPS, while producing 60% hard contact and a 10% barrel rate.
Perez has allowed nearly a 60% elevation rate to right-handed hitters on the road while also surrendering 40.6% hard contact.
With the wind blowing out and the way Vargas has been seeing left-handed pitching, I want to be all over him this evening. I wouldn't pay any juice on this prop, so shop around and grab the best plus-money price you can find.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, BravesVsn
Randal Grichuk Over 1.5 total bases (+117)
The other guy I’m in love with in this matchup is newly added fan favorite Randal Grichuk, who has been a great addition for the White Sox since arriving from the Yankees.
Like Vargas, he has been giving left-handed pitchers hell this season, sporting a .407 BA, .889 SLG, and 1.356 OPS over his last 30 plate appearances against southpaws. During that span, he has also produced a 40.9% hard-hit rate and a 9.1% barrel rate.
The 34-year-old veteran owns the second-highest rating in this matchup over on Batters-Box, marking his 33rd elite home rating. In his previous 32 elite home ratings, he has recorded at least one hit 65.63% of the time and doubled in 37.5% of them.
With Grichuk hitting in the two-hole and two bases sitting at +117, I think this is a great spot for both the No. 2 and No. 3 hitters tonight — assuming the weather cooperates.
For those wondering why I'm backing these props despite the weather concerns, my answer is simple: if they're playing, there's always a chance.
That's how I've always approached it. Others may disagree, but I spend far too much time digging through the data to let the possibility of rain, snow, or even a massive typhoon scare me off a play. If the game is on, it's in consideration.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, BravesVsn
- Prop picks: 208-356-30, +4.01 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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