Miguel Vargas is one of the league's hottest hitters against right-handed pitchers, and he draws a struggling righty this afternoon in Shane Bieber.
With such an advantageous matchup, Vargas headlines my three MLB player props and MLB picks for Saturday, July 18.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Miguel Vargas |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs | -132 |
 Samuel Basallo |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs | +101 |
 Luis Garcia Jr |
Over 1.5 total bases | -107 |
Miguel Vargas Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-132)
Things have not gone well for Shane Bieber. He is sporting a 7.64 ERA and 2.04 WHIP through just under 18 innings of work. He has also allowed a ton of power, conceding seven homers.
He has struggled even more so against right-handed hitters, allowing an absurd .419 average to date.
That puts Miguel Vargas in a very good spot. He has hit .346 vs. righties with a remarkably strong 20.4% barrel rate over his last 20 games.
He’s hitting for contact, he’s hitting for power, and Bieber is consistently giving up both.
Bet to -150.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, Sportsnet
Samuel Basallo Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (+101)
Samuel Basallo mashes right-handed pitching. He ranks in the 92nd percentile in xwOBA, the 96th percentile in xSLG, and consistently makes hard contact.
He is going to cause problems for Spencer Arrighetti, whose profile against lefties is littered with red flags – and only getting worse.
Arrighetti has allowed a .321 average, .426 ISO, and .491 wOBA when facing left-handed bats over his last five starts.
He is in miserable form, and Basallo is a likely candidate to take advantage.
Back the Baltimore Orioles’ slugger to -135.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN, SCHN
Luis Garcia Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-107)
J.T. Ginn has conceded a .268 average against left-handed hitters over his last 10 starts, which is over .100 points higher than what he held righties to during the same stretch.
Isolating starters who rank in the 45th percentile or worse in xSLG and xwOBA vs. lefties, Luis Garcia Jr. has cleared 1.5 total bases in 68.4% of his games and averaged 3.5 bases along the way.
Garcia also owns ISOs of .320 or higher against three of Ginn’s four most-used pitches.
This is a great spot to deal damage.
Bet to -125.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NATS, NBCSCA
- Prop picks: 5-4, +0.55 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
