A classic pitchers’ duel is set for Citi Field as the New York Mets welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates on Opening Day.
With two aces toeing the rubber, the Under is the play in my Pirates vs. Mets predictions below.
Keep reading to see the full analysis of this matchup and get my free MLB picks for Thursday, March 26.
Pirates vs Mets predictions
Pirates vs Mets best bet: Under 7 (-105)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have a generational talent to build around in ace Paul Skenes, who went 10-10 with a 1.97 ERA in 2025.
Unfortunately, Pittsburgh put absolutely no offensive talent on the field last season, scoring a league-low 3.60 runs per game with a putrid .655 OPS.
While Pittsburgh has tried to improve its lineup, the New York Mets have a new ace on the mound in Freddy Peralta (17-6, 2.70 ERA), who led the NL in wins and surrendered three or fewer runs in 29 of his 33 starts.
I don’t have confidence in either of these new-look lineups generating much offense against this pitching, so I’m taking the Under this afternoon.
COVERS INTEL: Peralta was 2-0 with a 2.35 ERA in three starts against the Pirates last season, striking out 18 batters in 15 1/3 innings.
Pirates vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Along with taking the Under this afternoon, I also like both starters to hit their strikeout totals in this game. Peralta struck out at least six batters in 23 of 33 starts last year, while Skenes recorded at least seven in 18 of 32. With both offenses still working their way into the season, I feel good about taking the Over on both starters.
Pirates vs Mets SGP
- Under 7
- Paul Skenes Over 6.5 strikeouts
- Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 strikeouts
Pirates vs Mets home run pick: Juan Soto (+350)
While Juan Soto got off to a slow start last year, he finished with a career-high 43 home runs. That follows a general trend for the superstar, who has back-to-back 40+ homer years and has a slugging percentage of .519+ in three straight. While Skenes is a tough matchup for any hitter, Soto comes in off hitting two homers in the World Baseball Classic and has a great shot to continue that momentum into the regular season.
Pirates vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh -1.5 (+160) | New York +1.5 (-194)
- Run line: Pittsburgh +100 | New York -118
- Over/Under: Over 7 (-122) | Under 7 (+100)
Pirates vs Mets trend
The Pirates have played to totals of seven runs or fewer in 13 of Skenes’ last 16 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Mets.
How to watch Pirates vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Thursday, March 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (2025: 10-10, 1.97 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Freddy Peralta (2025: 17-6, 2.70 ERA) |
Pirates vs Mets latest injuries
Pirates vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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