The Chicago Cubs are looking to bring out the brooms this afternoon to finish off their series with the Pittsburgh Pirates and edge closer to an NL wild-card spot, but my Pirates vs Cubs predictions pump the brakes.
While Chicago has been rebounding impressively from a four-game skid earlier in the week, Bubba Chandler and Pittsburgh still get the edge here in my MLB picks for this Sept. 13 clash.
Who will win Pirates vs Cubs today: Pirates (43%)
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This weekend series has likely put the final nail in the coffin for the Pittsburgh Pirates’ wild-card hopes, but don’t expect any let up from the visitors in this NL Central tilt.
Pittsburgh has won seven of its last 10 games as a road underdog, and starter Bubba Chandler boasts a solid 4.23 ERA on his travels. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs have lost each of Matthew Boyd’s last five starts, with the lefty posting a 5.46 ERA during that span.
Sure, the Cubs hold a 7-5 lead in this season’s head-to-head series between these clubs, but three of those victories have been by one run. And while Chicago brings MLB’s most prolific offense (5.34 runs per game), I’m trusting a talented Pittsburgh lineup, which ranks second in the majors in hits, to keep pace here.
The Pirates blew a late lead yesterday, but they’ll get their payback this afternoon. I'd bet this all the way up to 50%.
COVERS INTEL: Boyd has produced a forgettable year at Wrigley Field, with an ugly 5.40 ERA in nine starts at home, and this Pirates roster has posted a .274 batting average against the Chicago lefty.
Pirates vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Over 6.5 (55%)
It’s hard to make any sense of this O/U line given the potent offenses involved. The Over has been a winning ticket in seven of the last 10 matchups between these teams, and it’s 7-1 in Chicago’s last eight outings as a favorite against NL Central rivals.
Plus, neither starting pitcher is throwing his best stuff. Boyd has coughed up three-plus earned runs in four of his last five trips to the mound, and only one of his past seven appearances has led to a total south of 7.
Chandler has looked sharper down the stretch, but this Cubs lineup tagged him for four earned runs back in May.
With both sides in the top five for runs, hits, and OBP, expect the scoreboard to be busy at Wrigley Field today.
Pirates vs Cubs home run prediction: Alex Bregman (13%)
There’s no shortage of home run threats in the Cubs' lineup, but Alex Bregman stands out with his September form.
He’s gone 13-for-37 this month, with two dingers and a 1.039 OPS, and I’ve penciled him in for quality at-bats again today.
With one hit off Chandler in a small sample size, and extra-base blasts off a couple of Pittsburgh relievers, Bregman offers great value here. He’s smashed 18 of his 25 homers off righties in 2026.
- ML/RL bets: 4-8, -5.05 units
- Over/Under bets: 9-3, +5.06 units
Pirates vs Cubs weather
The Windy City is living up to its name today, with gusty, cloudy conditions expected, and temperatures that will dip into the 60s.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Pirates 43% | Cubs 58%
- Run line: Pirates +1.5 (63%) | Cubs -1.5 (38%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Pirates vs Cubs trend
The Pirates’ road form has taken strides in the right direction down the stretch. They’ve won seven of their last 11 games away from PNC Park. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.
How to watch Pirates vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, MARQ |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Bubba Chandler (7-9, 4.25 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (8-4, 4.03 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries
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