Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction, Odds & Home Run Pick for Today's MLB Game

Mike DiStefano - Contributor at Covers.com
Mike DiStefano • Betting Analyst 14+ years betting experience
Updated: May 23, 2026 , 12:36 PM ET • 4 min read

Jesus Sanchez will shine vs. Paul Skenes today, per our MLB expert.

MLB

Match starts: 1 hrs
PIT
0 %
TOR
0 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Jesus Sanchez o0.5  Total Hits (+100) Jesus Sanchez o0.5 Total Hits (+100)
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Toronto Blue Jays MLB Jesus Sanchez
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Toronto Blue Jays right fielder Jesus Sanchez.

Jesus Sanchez has been quietly heating up this month, and I expect him to continue swinging a hot bat this afternoon. 

Read on to see why with my Pirates vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, May 23. 

Pirates vs Blue Jays predictions

Pirates vs Blue Jays best bet: Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits (+100)

Jesus Sanchez has been quietly consistent recently, currently sporting a five-game hitting streak, while going Over his 0.5 hits total in nine of his last 10 outings. 

Sanchez owns a .333 average against the four-seam fastball and a .294 average against the sinker, the two pitches that Paul Skenes uses the most. 

Additionally, Sanchez is just one of three batters in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup to have a hit against Skenes in their career, going 1-for-3 with a double.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Sanchez has a .283 xBA, which ranks him in the 87th percentile in all of baseball. 

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Pirates vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)

Another Blue Jay swinging a hot bat is Daulton Varsho. I’ll take Over 0.5 hits for the Jays outfielder, who has eclipsed this total in eight of his last 10 outings with a .324 batting average in that stretch.

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 21st in OPS vs. lefties this year, so Patrick Corbin could get through most of his start unscathed. He'll eventually give way to a Blue Jays bullpen ranked seventh in xFIP this month.

Pirates vs Blue Jays SGP

  • Jesus Sanchez Over 0.5 hits
  • Daulton Varsho Over 0.5 hits
  • Pirates team total Under 4.5
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Pirates vs Blue Jays home run pick: Jesus Sanchez (+725)

Lets continue with the Sanchez train and bet a quarter unit on him hitting a home run tonight. 

Homering off Skenes isn’t easy, but Sanchez has been a consistent hitter for the Blue Jays and has some pop in his bat, ranking in the 69th percentile in average exit-velocity. 

He also owns a 46% hard-hit rate and a .467 xSLG against the four seamer, Skenes’ most used pitch.

2026 Transparency record
  • Best bets: 23-27, -0.55 units
  • SGPs: 10-40, +0.60 units
  • HR picks: 8-42, +2.15 units

Pirates vs Blue Jays odds

  • Moneyline: Pittsburgh -155 | Toronto +130
  • Run line: Pittsburgh -1.5 | Toronto +1.5
  • Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5

Pirates vs Blue Jays trend

The Blue Jays have covered the F5 run line in seven of their last eight games (+5.90 Units / 63% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Blue Jays.

How to watch Pirates vs Blue Jays and game info

Location Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
Date Saturday, May 23, 2026
First pitch 3:07 p.m. ET
TV Sportsnet, SportsNet Pittsburgh
Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes
(6-3, 2.62 ERA)
Blue Jays starting pitcher Patrick Corbin
(1-1, 4.23 ERA)

Pirates vs Blue Jays latest injuries

Pirates vs Blue Jays weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Mike DiStefano - Covers
Betting Analyst

Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN's flagship radio/tv show "OverDrive" as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.

A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.

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