Phillies vs Braves Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's MLB Game

Shawn Krest - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Shawn Krest • Betting Analyst 20+ years betting experience
Updated: Apr 24, 2026 , 12:40 PM ET • 4 min read

If MLB had a perfect example of teams trending in opposite directions, it’d be the Phillies spiraling while the Braves surge with Atlanta clearly holding the edge.

MLB

Match starts: 4 hrs
PHI
34 %
ATL
66 %
EXPERT PICK - RUN LINE
Atlanta -1.5 (+144) Atlanta -1.5 (+144)
Read Analysis
Michael Harris Atlanta Braves MLB
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Atlanta Braves center fielder Michael Harris II (23) celebrates a home run by checking his pulse.

The Atlanta Braves return home to open a series against the Philadelphia Phillies in a series that matches the teams with the best and worst run differentials in baseball.

Philadelphia has lost nine straight, its longest slump in eight years. The Braves have won eight of their last nine and have a 5.5 game advantage in what was supposed to be a competitive division.

Our Phillies vs. Braves predictions and MLB picks look for the teams to continue on their current trajectories as Atlanta wins.

Who will win Phillies vs Braves today: Braves run line -1.5 (+144)

The Atlanta Braves swept three from the Philadelphia Phillies on the road last week. Atlanta has covered the run line in each of their last seven wins. The Braves’ run differential is seven better than the Dodgers. Their run line record is 17-9, just one worse than their straight-up mark.

The Phillies could finish Friday with their first double-digit losing streak of the 21st century. Their run differential is 16 runs worse than the team directly ahead of them, and their record is tied for worst in MLB.

Philly has covered just four games all season and none against the NL East.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Michael Harris has an RBI in five straight games and is hitting .565 with four homers over the last seven. He’s expected to play after leaving with quad tightness Thursday.

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Phillies vs Braves Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-101)

The Braves saw rookie Andrew Painter five days ago, when Philly got a look at Grant Holmes. The familiarity should lead to offense from two pitchers that combined to give up six runs in half of Sunday’s game.

The bullpens aren’t likely to shut things down like they did Sunday. Four Philadelphia relievers have thrown more than 20 pitches in the last three games, and three are over 30. The Braves have three relievers at 19 or more.

The Braves have had a game total of 10+ runs in three of the last four—and the fourth had a total of nine.

Shawn Krest's 2026 Transparency Record
  • ML/RL bets: 7-8 ,-1.38 units
  • Over/Under bets: 9-10, -1.31 units

Phillies vs Braves odds

  • Moneyline: Philadelphia +133 | Atlanta -138
  • Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-156) | Atlanta -1.5 (+144)
  • Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+108) | Under 9.5 (-113)

Phillies vs Braves trend

The Philadelphia Phillies have only covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 24 games (-20.45 Units / -75% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.

How to watch Phillies vs Braves and game info

Location Truist Park, Cumberland, GA
Date Friday, April 24, 2026
First pitch 7:15 p.m. ET
TV Apple TV+
Phillies starting pitcher Andrew Painter
(1-1, 4.42 ERA)
Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes
(1-1, 3.42 ERA)

Phillies vs Braves latest injuries

Phillies vs Braves weather

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Shawn Krest
Betting Analyst

Since quitting his job as bank assistant vice-president in 2000, Shawn has covered Final Fours, Super Bowls, World Series games and title fights in boxing and UFC. His work has appeared on ESPN, MLB.com, Sports Illustrated and dozens of other outlets. His book, Baseball Meat Market was published in 2018. He lives in North Carolina with his dog Toby, eight turtles, and wife.

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