Toronto Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. gets a favorable matchup tonight against Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo, and his underlying metrics suggest a breakout performance at the plate may be imminent.
Read on for my Blue Jays vs. Phillies predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, June 10.
Phillies vs Blue Jays predictions
Phillies vs Blue Jays best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles (-135)
Jesus Luzardo owns a 4.35 ERA while ranking in the 59th percentile in opponent expected batting average this season. He also hasn't done a great job limiting quality contact, ranking in just the 58th percentile in barrel suppression.
That spells trouble against Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who matches up well against Luzardo's arsenal (four-seamer, changeup, sweeper). He owns a .340 batting average against those pitches along with a 24.4% line-drive rate this season.
He's also displayed an excellent approach at the plate this season, ranking in the 91st percentile in expected batting average.
More so, Vladdy's hard-hit rate against Luzardo's pitch mix has jumped to 57% in June, up from his 45.8% season average. Given his naturally low launch-angle profile, that increase in hard contact should translate into more line drives and sharply-hit balls finding the outfield grass. I'd bet this up to -150.
COVERS INTEL: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s singles make up for 79% of his 67 total hits this season.
Phillies vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Kazuma Okamoto matches up very well with Luzardo’s three-pitch mix, owning a .417 average and a 16% barrel rate against them when facing southpaws. I’ll add Over 0.5 hits for Okamoto to my SGP.
Jays starter Max Scherzer has faced J.T. Realmuto 64 times in his career and owns a 31.2% strikeout rate against him. The Phillies catcher also owns just a .184 average against the four-seamer with a 19.6% K-rate, which is Scherzer's top pitch.
Phillies vs Blue Jays SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 singles
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 0.5 hits
- J.T. Realmuto Over 0.5 strikeouts
Phillies vs Blue Jays home run pick: Kazuma Okamoto (+380)
Luzardo gave up three homers in his last outing, but went four straight starts prior without allowing one, so we’ll just make this a half-unit wager.
However, Okamoto’s hitting profile matches up extremely well against the Philadelphia Phillies starter, making him the best bet to go yard tonight for the Jays.
Okamoto barrels the baseball well against left-handed pitchers, resulting in a .417 average against Luzardo’s three most-used pitches with an .833 slug and a 57.9% hard-hit rate.
- Best bets: 32-33, +3.85 units
- SGPs: 13-52, +7.35 units
- HR picks: 9-56, -1.8 units
Phillies vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -130 | Toronto +110
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+120) | Toronto +1.5 (-140)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105)
Phillies vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have gone Over the total in eight of their last 11 games for +4.8 units and a 41% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Phillies vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Wednesday, 6-10-2026 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC Sports Philadelphia, Sportsnet 1 |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (4-4, 4.56 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Max Scherzer (1-3, 9.64 ERA) |
Phillies vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Phillies vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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