The San Diego Padres will turn to Michael King as they look to snap a five-game losing streak against the New York Mets tonight.
My Mets vs. Padres predictions expect King to provide a pitching advantage that makes the difference on Friday.
Let's break down my MLB picks for June 5.
Who will win Mets vs Padres today: San Diego Padres (-130)
Both of these offenses have struggled mightily, so I’m looking at pitching to decide this game.
The San Diego Padres have an edge with Michael King on the mound. He ranks in the 91st percentile in pitching run value and has the league’s No. 1 bullpen by xFIP backing him up.
Meanwhile, New York Mets starter Christian Scott sits in the 54th percentile in Pitching Run Value, the 43rd in xERA, and has struggled with walks — something the Padres excel at drawing.
That extra traffic could be the difference. Back the Padres to -140.
COVERS INTEL: Scott ranks in the fifth percentile in ground ball rate, while the Padres are ninth in home runs per fly ball against righties.
Mets vs Padres Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (+105)
Scott owns a 2.63 ERA over the past 30 days despite a 3.75 SIERA and 3.88 xFIP. The right-hander is not pitching as well as the results suggest, and a correction is coming.
Meanwhile, King has benefited from some batted ball luck. Opponents have hit .247 on balls put in play the last month, noticeably below his career average of .285.
The Mets rank near the basement in BABIP, yet they’ve still hit .275 against righties when putting it in play.
I see value on the Over to -105.
- ML/RL bets: 23-17, +0.92 units
- Over/Under bets: 19-19-2, -2.71 units
Mets vs Padres odds
- Moneyline: Mets +110 | Padres -130
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-190) | Padres -1.5 (+160)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+105) | Under 7.5 (-125)
Mets vs Padres trend
New York has won only 20 of their last 50 games (-19.85 units, -30% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Padres.
How to watch Mets vs Padres and game info
| Location | Petco Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date | Friday, June 5, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | WPIX-11, Padres.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | Christian Scott (1-0, 2.97 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Michael King (4-4, 3.18 ERA) |
Mets vs Padres latest injuries
Mets vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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