MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on July 21, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

Minnesota Twins logo MIN @ Cleveland Guardians logo CLE Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Kyle Manzardo logo
Kyle Manzardo o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run ability, Kyle Manzardo ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Manzardo is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most humid conditions on the slate today at 76%.
Total Bases
Travis Bazzana logo
Travis Bazzana o1.5 Total Bases (+151)
Projection 1.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Travis Bazzana is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #2 park in MLB for boosting base hits to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Progressive Field.. Progressive Field sits at the 7th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Humid weather has a small but significant link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 5th-most humid conditions on the slate today at 76%.. Batting from the opposite that Kendry Rojas throws from, Travis Bazzana will have an edge today.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI Tue, Jul 21 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez logo
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.63
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. HRs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the 12th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.
Total Bases
Mookie Betts logo
Mookie Betts o1.5 Total Bases (+148)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.. Mookie Betts is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Citizens Bank Park profiles as the #8 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. This game is forecasted to have the 12th-most favorable weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 12.4-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for bats.
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Pittsburgh Pirates logo PIT @ New York Yankees logo NYY Tue, Jul 21 • 7:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Brandon Lowe logo
Brandon Lowe o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.93
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions of the day at 82%.. Because of Will Warren's large platoon split, Brandon Lowe will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.
Total Bases
Ryan O'Hearn logo
Ryan O'Hearn o1.5 Total Bases (+146)
Projection 1.7
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 87th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Among all parks, Yankee Stadium has the 7th-lowest average fence height.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 2nd-most humid conditions of the day at 82%.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the handedness advantage against Will Warren today... and even more favorably, Warren has a large platoon split.
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Tampa Bay Rays logo TB @ Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR Tue, Jul 21 • 7:07 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins logo
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Cedric Mullins is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.8-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Batting from the opposite that Kevin Gausman throws from, Cedric Mullins will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total Bases
Taylor Walls logo
Taylor Walls o1.5 Total Bases (+289)
Projection 1.12
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 5th-best ballpark in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's centerfield fences are the 8th-shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 9.8-mph in this contest, the 3rd-strongest of the day for bats.. Taylor Walls's launch angle this season (20°) is considerably better than his 14.9° figure last season.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ Boston Red Sox logo BOS Tue, Jul 21 • 7:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Willson Contreras logo
Willson Contreras o1.5 Total Bases (+141)
Projection 1.69
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Willson Contreras projects as the 19th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 4th-most humid conditions on the slate at 76%.. Willson Contreras pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences today.
Total Bases
Ceddanne Rafaela logo
Ceddanne Rafaela o1.5 Total Bases (+137)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best park in the game for run-scoring.. High humidity has a small yet noteworthy connection with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report expects the 4th-most humid conditions on the slate at 76%.. Ceddanne Rafaela has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:15 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Austin Riley logo
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Austin Riley is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. Truist Park grades out as the #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for overall righty offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
Total Bases
Drake Baldwin logo
Drake Baldwin o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 22 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best venue in Major League Baseball for boosting offensive stats to LHB.. Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the 2nd-most suitable for hitting of all games on the slate today.
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New York Mets logo NYM @ Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Carson Benge logo
Carson Benge o1.5 Total Bases (+166)
Projection 1.65
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Carson Benge's BABIP skill is projected in the 86th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Carson Benge is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 17-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for hitters.
Total Bases
Gary Sanchez logo
Gary Sanchez o1.5 Total Bases (+195)
Projection 1.42
Best Odds
Pick made: 14 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Gary Sanchez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. American Family Field has the 5th-shortest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. American Family Field sits at the 8th-highest elevation among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. Gary Sanchez will have the handedness advantage against Zach Thornton in today's matchup.. Gary Sanchez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.
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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Tue, Jul 21 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Salvador Perez logo
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #10 stadium in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. The San Francisco Giants outfield defense projects as the 5th-worst among every team today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Salvador Perez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Heliot Ramos logo
Heliot Ramos o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.89
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 91st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #10 stadium in the game for RHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the 2nd-highest level on the schedule today at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Texas Rangers logo TEX Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Sam Antonacci logo
Sam Antonacci o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Samuel Antonacci's batting average talent is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Samuel Antonacci is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Because of Kumar Rocker's large platoon split, Samuel Antonacci will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.. Over the last week, Samuel Antonacci's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 102.4-mph lately.
Total Bases
Wyatt Langford logo
Wyatt Langford o1.5 Total Bases (+127)
Projection 1.73
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Wyatt Langford ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Wyatt Langford is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height in the majors.. Wyatt Langford will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Noah Schultz in today's game... and even better, Schultz has a large platoon split.. Wyatt Langford will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.
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Detroit Tigers logo DET @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Tue, Jul 21 • 8:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Chicago Cubs logo CHC (-108)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Both teams are 7-3 in their last 10 games, but it's the Cubs whom I trust more in this spot. They have been dialed in at the plate of late, and I'm expecting Framber Valdez to return to his struggles against a good-hitting Cubbies side. 

Total RBIs
Kevin McGonigle logo
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+223)
Projection 0.55
Best Odds
Pick made: 48 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Kevin McGonigle ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Kevin McGonigle is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Kevin McGonigle generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like David Peterson.. By putting up a 0.99 K/BB rate this year, Kevin McGonigle has displayed favorable plate discipline, ranking in the 98th percentile.. By putting up a .288 batting average this year, Kevin McGonigle is ranked in the 91st percentile.
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Miami Marlins logo MIA @ Houston Astros logo HOU Tue, Jul 21 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jeremy Pena logo
Jeremy Pena o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.77
Best Odds
Pick made: 48 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his batting average ability, Jeremy Pena is projected as the 19th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jeremy Pena is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.. Jeremy Pena pulls many of his flyballs (34.9% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jeremy Pena will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to last year, Jeremy Pena has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41.7% to 47% this season.
Total Bases
Yordan Alvarez logo
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (-110)
Projection 2.24
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Yordan Alvarez ranks as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Yordan Alvarez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Yordan Alvarez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Phillips in today's matchup.. Yordan Alvarez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Yordan Alvarez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.9-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 96.2-mph.
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Washington Nationals logo WAS @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Tue, Jul 21 • 8:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jose Tena logo
Jose Tena o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 1.97
Best Odds
Pick made: 48 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Tena in the 93rd percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Jose Tena is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.. The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak logo
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (-140)
Projection 2.45
Best Odds
Pick made: 48 seconds ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Mickey Moniak is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #1 venue in the game for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest elevation in MLB, which generally leads to more offense.. The weather report predicts temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of the day at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).
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St. Louis Cardinals logo STL @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jo Adell logo
Jo Adell o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8
Best Odds
Pick made: 10 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run talent, Jo Adell ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jo Adell is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Jo Adell will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Mike Trout logo
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+131)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Mike Trout projects as the 6th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Mike Trout is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Angel Stadium has the lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the 5th-highest temperatures of all games on the slate today at 82°.. Mike Trout will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore in today's game.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Moneyline
Cincinnati Reds logo CIN (-102)
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
Chris Vasile image
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor

Let's dial up a bet on the Reds tonight behind Chase Burns and his excellent strikeout ability. The M's are the third-worst K team at home, and Burns has racked up 7+ Ks in 8 of his last 10 appearances. That'll be enough to help the Reds pick up the win. 

Total Bases
Josh Naylor logo
Josh Naylor o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.56
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Josh Naylor is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fence height (on average) among all parks.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Chase Burns throws from, Josh Naylor will have an advantage in today's game.. Josh Naylor pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 83rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.
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Athletics Athletics logo ATH @ Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ Tue, Jul 21 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Colby Thomas logo
Colby Thomas u0.5 Total Hits (+125)
Projection 0.64
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
68% of the time that Colby Thomas has started against a left-handed starter this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.. Colby Thomas hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's game.. The Arizona Diamondbacks infield defense grades out as the 3rd-best among every team playing today.. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Colby Thomas today.. When it comes to plate discipline, Colby Thomas's ability is quite poor, posting a 7.06 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 10th percentile.
Total Bases
Tyler Soderstrom logo
Tyler Soderstrom o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.81
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Soderstrom in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Tyler Soderstrom is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Chase Field projects as the #3 field in baseball for overall lefty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Tyler Soderstrom is apt to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks has just 1 same-handed RP.. Tyler Soderstrom has made significant strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 10.7% seasonal rate to 40% over the last week.
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Arizona Diamondbacks logo AZ @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Thu, Jul 23 • 5:15 PM ET
6 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Game Prop
St. Louis Cardinals logo o2.5 Team Total (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

The Cardinals are in a premium offensive spot against Zac Gallen, who enters the day with the second-worst pitcher rating in Batters-Box's current season model. Gallen has struggled to limit power and hard contact, carrying poorly rated matchup marks in ISO, hard contact rate, and ground ball rate. St. Louis counters with seven elite-rated hitters and an offense averaging more than 2.5 first five innings runs per game at home. The Cardinals have also been red hot lately, posting a 122 wRC+ over their last 12 games. With so many favorable individual matchups, backing the offense as a whole makes plenty of sense.

Earned Runs Allowed
Zac Gallen logo Zac Gallen o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-141)
Best Odds
Pick made: 25 days ago
Colby Marchio image
Colby Marchio
Contributor

Zac Gallen has been one of the most vulnerable pitchers on the board, especially away from Arizona, where he owns a 7.68 ERA and 6.00 xERA while surrendering plenty of hard contact and barrels. Things do not get any easier against a Cardinals lineup loaded with seven elite-rated hitters according to Batters-Box. St. Louis has been one of the hotter offenses in baseball recently, producing a 122 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .345 wOBA over its last 12 games. With Gallen's struggles and the Cardinals continuing to swing hot bats, this sets up as an excellent spot to back St. Louis early and often.

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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Thu, Aug 6 • 2:20 PM ET
4 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total Home Runs
Kazuma Okamoto logo Kazuma Okamoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+365)
Best Odds
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Okamoto's hitting profile perfectly matches up well against Imanaga’s stuff. The Cubs starter throws a heavy dose of the fastball and gets barreled up at a 10.4% rate. The Jays third baseman barrels the ball better than anyone in the Blue Jays lineup with a 13.5% barrel rate, while owning a 63.2% hard hit rate against the four-seamer. 

3 LEG PARLAY
Dansby Swanson profile picture
Dansby Swanson u0.5 Total Hits
Total Hits
Dylan Cease profile picture
Dylan Cease o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown
Strikeouts Thrown
George Springer profile picture
George Springer o1.5 Total Bases
Total Bases
Bet now
Pick made: 29 days ago
Mike DiStefano image
Mike DiStefano
Betting Analyst

Swanson is just 1-for-6 against Cease in his career. Cease has electric stuff, leading the American League with 110 Ks, while ranking in the 97th percentile in K-rate. Springer is turning a corner with a 1.089 OPS over his last nine games.

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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Chicago White Sox logo CHW Thu, Aug 20 • 2:10 PM ET
5 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Atlanta Braves logo Chicago White Sox logo o8.5 (-105)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.

Moneyline
Atlanta Braves logo ATL (-112)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

I'm fading Chicago White Sox lefty Anthony Kay on Thursday. He's sporting the fifth-highest xERA among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings, after all. Plus, the Atlanta Braves enter ranked eighth in wOBA against southpaws for the season and sixth in overall xwOBA across the past 14 days.

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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ New York Yankees logo NYY Sat, Aug 29 • 1:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks 10 Computer Picks
Total
Boston Red Sox logo New York Yankees logo o8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

The Yankees rank Top-3 in OPS, ISO, OBP, xWOBA, and hard hit rate when facing left-handed pitching. The Red Sox have hit righties very well over the past four weeks, sitting ninth in wOBA, ninth in ISO, and fourth in batting average. Play the Over to -120.

Moneyline
New York Yankees logo NYY (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Todd Cordell image
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst

Ranger Suarez has started four games against teams ranking Top-10 in OPS vs. left-handed pitching, allowing 13 runs and posting a 6.13 ERA during those games. The New York Yankees lead the majors in OPS against lefties so they’re a prime candidate to cause Suarez problems. Playable to -145.

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San Francisco Giants logo SF @ Atlanta Braves logo ATL Mon, Aug 31 • 6:05 PM ET
2 Expert Picks
Total
San Francisco Giants logo Atlanta Braves logo o7.5 (-116)
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and are fourth in xwOBA while averaging 5.5 runs per game across the past 30 days, and the Braves ranks ninth in wOBA against right-handed pitchers and third in overall xwOBA, so I think this total is too low.

Moneyline
San Francisco Giants logo SF (+124)
Best Odds
Pick made: one month ago
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

The Braves have dropped five of six while averaging just 2.8 runs per game and ranking 29th in wOBA without Ronald Acuna Jr. (hamstring), and it’s been a smoke-and-mirrors start for veteran lefty Martin Perez, and there’s serious statistical correction ahead of his .230 BABIP and 80.2% strand rate considering they’re both high-end marks about pitchers with at least 60 innings this season. San Francisco is just the offense to kick-start the regression, too. The Giants are pacing the majors in wOBA and fourth in xwOBA over the past 30 days, after all.

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