The New York Mets visit Wrigley Field for the first of a three-game set against the Chicago Cubs on Friday, April 17.
My top Mets vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks are calling for the North Siders to fly the flag with a statement win at the Friendly Confines this afternoon.
Who will win Mets vs Cubs today: Cubs -1.5 (+142)
The New York Mets have dropped eight straight while scoring just 12 times, and Juan Soto (calf) isn’t returning anytime soon. Soto was third in win probability added among MLB batters last season, and the Mets are down to 28th in wOBA against right-handed arms.
It’s a different story at the dish for the Chicago Cubs, as they’ve won three of four while averaging 8.8 runs per game.
Cubbies righty Edward Cabrera has also hit the ground running with a 1.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .175 average and .250 wOBA.
COVERS INTEL: Soto and Pete Alonso accounted for 207 runs and 231 RBI for the Mets in 2025, and neither will be in the lineup on Friday.
Mets vs Cubs Over/Under pick: Under 10.5 (-110)
Even with the wind forecasted to be blowing out to left at Wrigley Field this afternoon, and the Cubs playing to the Over in five straight, the Mets are too lost at the plate to do their part in sending this total Over the number.
In addition to the highlighted offensive struggles, New York also ranks last in xwOBA and ISO through 11 games with Soto out of the lineup. Remember, too, the Mets also lost slugger Pete Alonso (87 runs and 126 RBI in 2025) during the offseason.
Finally, New York starter Kodai Senga's underlying 3.43 xFIP suggests there’s positive regression ahead of his 7.07 ERA — especially considering he posted a 3.00 ERA over his first 52 starts in the majors.
- ML/RL bets: 4-7, -3.19 units
- Over/Under bets: 4-3, +0.63 units
Mets vs Cubs odds
- Moneyline: Mets +123 | Cubs -149
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-156) | Cubs -1.5 (+129)
- Over/Under: Over 10.5 (-112) | Under 10.5 (-108)
Mets vs Cubs trend
The Mets have hit the Under in eight of their last 13 away games (+3.60 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cubs.
How to watch Mets vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Friday, April 17, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | WPIX, Marquee |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (0-2, 7.07 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Edward Cabrera (1-0, 1.62 ERA) |
Mets vs Cubs latest injuries
Mets vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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