It's NFL opening day, but there's plenty of time to hammer home run and MLB player props this afternoon and build that kickoff bankroll.
Kazuma Okamoto could pummel Sutter Health Park for a third straight day, but don't count out the Athletics vs. the Jays' bullpen.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, September 9.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Henry Bolte |
11.5% |
 Kazuma Okamoto |
22% |
 Cody Bellinger |
17% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 173.1x |
Home run prediction: Henry Bolte (11.5%)
I'm going long on a leadoff hitter who leads his team in swing speed and home runs while ranking second in HardHit% over the last two weeks. Henry Bolte has great pop for a leadoff guy, and he'll get to see an average Jays middle bullpen that could need six or seven arms today.
He's already 3-for-6 in the series with a homer and three runs scored, while adding four stolen bases. It's almost 100 degrees at Sutter Health Park, which is the best park for runs today, per Ballpark Pal.
I have Zack Gelof as a good look here as well at 5.8x, but getting a similar projection at 8.7x is the move. If you can't get Bolte at 8x, I'd move to Gelof at 5.5x or better. There is a great opportunity for long balls this afternoon in Sacramento.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet
Home run prediction: Kazuma Okamoto (22%)
If it weren't for rookie Kazuma Okamoto's power, the Jays would have hit just 110 home runs, as he's accounted for 21.4% of the club's total. He's already gone deep twice down the left-field line at Sutter Health Park and is looking to dinger-sweep the series.
Okamoto shouldn't be longer than 3x at this park, especially with near-100-degree temperatures and a plus-plus hitting matchup.
Both clubs will be going with bullpen days, and there are some stat-stuffers on the Athletics' side. Both teams can stack runs today, and I think the A's can be competitive. But with the heat and matchup, I'll take the only trusted Toronto bat at three percentage points above my fair price.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Sportsnet
Home run prediction: Cody Bellinger (17%)
I want a left-handed bat in the Bronx today, and Cody Bellinger is answering the call at 17%, with a fair probability of 20%.
He might not be in the best form since coming over, but he's at least hitting .290 and seeing the ball well. It's the matchup and setting that are pushing this into +EV territory.
There will be 14-mph winds blowing out to left-center field at Yankee Stadium. Bellinger also gets a matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano, who has given up 60 home runs over the last two seasons, the second-most in baseball behind Shoto Imanaga (64).
Lefties have taken Sugano deep at a higher rate, with a home run coming every 15.7 plate appearances, which is a huge number. The Rockies' bullpen is also very serviceable, adding to the dinger chances in a Mickey Mouse park.
- Time: 7:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES Network, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 35-175, -15.12 units
Best home run combo for September 9
| Henry Bolte |
Trade Now 173.1x |
| Kazuma Okamoto |
|
| Cody Bellinger |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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