Today's MLB player props home run analysis will focus on three well-known sluggers.
Juan Soto is first, followed by NL MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong, and last year's HR king, Cal Raleigh, who is starting to wake up.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sep. 5.
MLB home run props for today
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Juan Soto
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Home run prediction: Juan Soto (27%)
Juan Soto is a strong home run target thanks to his current batted-ball profile. The New York Mets slugger has gone deep twice over the last week while posting a 57.1% hard-hit rate and 24.4% barrel rate.
His 24.4-degree average launch angle has also translated into a massive 64.3% fly-ball rate, giving him plenty of lift.
Anthony Molina has allowed two homers over his last three appearances and plenty of air contact recently, while the San Francisco Giants bullpen is not untouchable.
Soto has multiple paths to leave Citi Field.
Play this pick down to 28%.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SNY, NBC Sports Bay Area
Home run prediction: Pete Crow-Armstrong (26%)
Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to show why he belongs in the NL MVP conversation. The slugger has smacked six home runs over his last six games while posting an eye-popping .667 ISO.
PCA has a 55% fly-ball rate during that span, and 54.5% of those fly balls have left the yard. That is not a typo. He also owns a 30% barrel rate over the last week, showing he is consistently squaring up the baseball.
Ryan Gusto has had home run issues at times this season, and the Miami Marlins’ relief corps has also given up 1.23 HR/9 over its last 22 frames.
PCA has two clear paths to another bomb.
Play this pick up to 25%.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Marlins.TV, Marquee Sports Network
- HR picks: 18-94, -10.89 units
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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