The Los Angeles Dodgers and Pittsburgh Pirates settle their three-game series with the finale at PNC Park tonight.
Mitch Keller takes the hill for the home team, and my Dodgers vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks for Thursday, June 11, don’t envision him finding much success.
Who will win Dodgers vs Pirates today: Dodgers moneyline (-165)
There isn’t much to like about Mitch Keller’s profile at this stage of his career against a potent team like the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Keller’s 4.54 xERA and .278 xBA aren’t encouraging. He doesn’t miss bats (18th percentile whiff rate), which isn’t a surprise given his underhwhelming stuff (93 Stuff+).
L.A. has a .273 xBA — and a 148 wRC+ against right-handed pitching — in the last 14 days and should collect plenty of hits while avoiding the punchout (9.7 swinging strike rate).
Justin Wrobleski gives the Boys in Blue a starting pitching edge. Play them up to -175.
COVERS INTEL: Mitch Keller leads with his four-seamer (33%) and has been fortunate with a .229 BA. The pitch’s .310 xBA is more concerning, and LA — with a league-best 19.4 runs above average against fastballs — will provide immediate regression.
Dodgers vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
The forecast screams hitting weather, so I’ll open up my ears and oblige Mother Nature’s call.
It’ll be a warm day in the low 80s with winds of 9-11 mph blowing out to left field. That’s bumped the total up to 9.5, but it isn’t a big enough increase.
Wrobleski’s underlying profile begs for regression. He’s essentially a two-pitch hurler, and the Pittsburgh Pirates rank sixth against fastballs (12.6 wFA) and eighth against sliders (3.4 wSL).
Both bullpens have been a disaster (L.A. 6.04 ERA over the last 14 days, Pittsburgh 5.88).
- ML/RL bets: 21-21, -4.41 units
- Over/Under bets: 30-13 +16.4 units
Dodgers vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Dodgers -170 | Pirates +145
- Run line: Dodgers -1.5 (-105) | Pirates +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (+100) | Under 9.5 (-120)
Dodgers vs Pirates trend
The Pirates have gone Over the total in 12 of their last 14 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Pirates.
How to watch Dodgers vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Thursday, June 11, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet LA, SportsNet Pittsburgh |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Justin Wrobleski (7-2, 2.62 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mitch Keller (5-3, 4.81 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Pirates latest injuries
Dodgers vs Pirates weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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