Two National League powerhouses collide Friday night as the New York Mets host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the opener of a three-game series at Citi Field.
Shohei Ohtani is once again the focal point for L.A., and our Dodgers vs. Mets predictions are banking on the two-way star delivering at the plate. With momentum and matchups leaning his way, there’s solid value in backing a big night from Ohtani.
Dive into our best MLB picks for this marquee matchup.
Dodgers vs Mets prediction
My Dodgers vs Mets best bet: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (-120 at FanDuel)
Shohei Ohtani is a total bases machine. He has averaged a ridiculous 2.6 total bases per game and cleared this line in 54% of his appearances, including 58% featuring a right-handed starting pitcher.
His numbers are great on the surface and they’re even better when zooming in. Ohtani enters play scorching hot, recording multiple bases on 15 of his last 20 games while averaging 3.3 along the way.
Griffin Canning is a veteran pitcher who really seems to have found himself with the New York Mets. Even so, he’s going to be in tough against Ohtani.
Canning has six different pitches in his arsenal but leans heavily on the four-seam fastball, slider, and changeup, with those three accounting for more than 90% of his pitches.
Ohtani owns absurd numbers against those pitches when facing right-handed pitchers. He possesses a .350 expected batting average, 76.4% hard hit rate, and 25.3% barrel rate. Those numbers are so far beyond the norm, it’s hard to believe Ohtani is playing the same sport.
Ohtani has one of the purest swings in the majors and is generating unmatched power against Canning’s pitch mix. It should take just one good swing for Ohtani to get the job done.
For what it’s worth, Ohtani always seems to bring his best against the Mets. He’s recorded at least two total bases in eight of his last 10 vs. New York, including four straight.
Look for Ohtani to have another loud night at the plate on Friday.
Dodgers vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases
Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 hits
Dodgers moneyline
Brandon Nimmo is the Mets’ resident specialist against left-handed pitchers. His batting average was more than 30 points higher against lefties a season ago and the split is even more drastic this season, with Nimmo hitting .250 vs. lefties compared to just .192 against righties.
Nimmo has recorded a hit in 58% of his games this season but that rate soars to 67% when a left-handed starter took the mound for the opposing team.
Clayton Kershaw primarily throws sliders, four-seamers, and curveballs. Isolating those three pitches, Nimmo owns a .282 expected average against lefties this season.
Rounding out the parlay is a bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline. Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and their big guns at the plate all profile very well against Canning’s mix.
As well as he’s pitched this season, it’ll be tough for him to navigate those batters several times without giving up real damage along the way.
The Dodgers, as a whole, are firing on all cylinders at the plate, hitting .278 with the league’s highest xwOBA against righties over the past couple of weeks.
I don’t see the Mets keeping up with this offense.
Dodgers vs Mets odds
Dodgers vs Mets live odds
Dodgers vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Los Angeles -115 | New York +104
- Run line: Los Angeles -1.5 (+143) | New York +1.5 (-162)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-110) | Under 8.5 (-102)
Dodgers vs Mets trend
Ohtani has recorded at least two total bases in six of his last seven against New York. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Mets.
How to watch Dodgers vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Friday, 5-23-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Apple TV+ |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Clayton Kershaw (0-0, 11.25 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (5-1, 2.47 ERA) |
Dodgers vs Mets latest injuries
Dodgers vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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