The underdog Chicago Cubs (+113) can earn a series victory when they face the Pittsburgh Pirates in Game 3 of their three-game series at PNC Park.
Braxton Ashcroft's underlying metrics are shaky, and my Cubs vs. Pirates predictions and MLB picks expect a Cubs sweep today,
Who will win Cubs vs Pirates today: Cubs moneyline (+114)
The markets are pricing this game off Jameson Taillon's 5.41 xERA and 1st-percentile barrel rate, but three factors point the other way.
Braxton Ashcraft relies on chase (37.2%, 96th percentile), yet he draws a Chicago Cubs lineup that rarely expands the zone and owns an 11% walk rate the past two weeks.
Taillon's fly-ball profile is better protected at PNC Park, especially with Pete Crow-Armstrong's +20 Outs Above Average patrolling center, while the Pittsburgh Pirates corner outfield defense sits at a combined -8 OAA.
Add in a Pirates lineup that chases enough to feed Taillon's sweeper, and I play the Cubs to -105 today.
COVERS INTEL: Ashcraft's four-seam fastball is his most-used pitch at 31.9 percent, and it's been hit for a .290 average, .519 slugging, and a .330 xwOBA with a negative run value.
Cubs vs Pirates Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-116)
It will be warm and dry for the first pitch, and both starters are hittable. Taillon carries a 14.4% barrel rate with 22 home runs in 72 innings and rarely sees the sixth inning.
Ashcraft has served up eight home runs in his last five starts and allows a 90.5 mph average exit velocity and meets a Cubs lineup walking 12.4 percent over the past two weeks.
That puts this in the bullpen's hands early, and Pittsburgh's relievers have walked 10.4% over the same stretch after emptying out Saturday night.
Scoring runs is what these teams do when they meet, as the Over is 7-3 in their last 10 games. I’d play this to -130.
- ML/RL bets: 9-12, -1.01 units
- Over/Under bets: 9-10, -2.45 units
Cubs vs Pirates weather
Warm and dry with light winds blowing out to right field.
Cubs vs Pirates odds
- Moneyline: Cubs +108 | Pirates -117
- Run line: Cubs +1.5 (-186) | Pirates -1.5 (+163)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-117) | Under 8.5 (+104)
Cubs vs Pirates trend
The Over is 7-3 in their last 10 head-to-head meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Pirates.
How to watch Cubs vs Pirates and game info
| Location | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date | Sunday, July 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | MARQ, SNP |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jameson Taillon (2-5, 5.38 ERA) |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Braxton Ashcraft (9-4, 3.95 ERA) |
Cubs vs Pirates latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
