The Toronto Blue Jays are -150 favorites when they continue their series with the St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday afternoon, sending Kevin Gausman to the mound against rookie debutant Quinn Mathews.
In what could be Gausman’s final home start in Toronto, my Cardinals vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks are backing his strikeout prop against a cold St. Louis lineup.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays predictions
Cardinals vs Blue Jays best bet: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
I fell just short on a strikeouts prop yesterday, but Kevin Gausman’s 5.5 total is far more manageable on Saturday.
Gausman should be extra motivated to show out in what could be his final home start in Toronto, and all he’s done lately is profess his love for the city and Toronto Blue Jays fans.
He’s also coming off a quality start, punching out six batters in six innings against the Boston Red Sox.
Looking at this St. Louis Cardinals roster, I see plenty of strikeout targets for Gausman’s nasty splitter.
Cardinals sluggers Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera are high-whiff bats; inexperienced hitters like JJ Wetherholt and Masyn Winn may not handle it, and Alex Burleson is slugging just .125 against the splitter this year (20-pitch sample).
Toronto also leaned on key bullpen arms in Louis Varland and Jeff Hoffman on Friday, so the Jays have every reason to let Gausman work deep.
I like this bet until -120.
COVERS INTEL: Gausman has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts, and his 9.4 K/9 at home tops his 8.7 mark on the road.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
For the same-game parlay, I’m stacking Toronto’s power against a debuting rookie.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases and Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases lead the way, and both cashed this same prop on Friday, with Okamoto adding an RBI double and Guerrero smoking a 112.4 mph double off the wall.
I’ll finish with the Blue Jays moneyline as a home favorite against a pitcher making his major league debut.
Cardinals vs Blue Jays SGP
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
- Kazuma Okamoto Over 1.5 total bases
- Blue Jays moneyline
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Cardinals vs Blue Jays home run pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+450)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. came so close to his first home run at Rogers Centre on Friday, smoking a line-drive double off the wall at a 112.4 mph exit velocity.
That sixth-inning double would have been a home run in 17 of 30 ballparks, and now Vladdy gets another crack at exciting the home crowd in a winnable spot.
The Cardinals bullpen was overworked on Friday, and its low-leverage arms fell apart. On Saturday, Guerrero draws rookie left-hander Quinn Mathews, who has solid stuff but has battled his command (5.1 BB/9 in Triple-A), so Vladdy can be patient and hunt a fastball.
He’s also well-equipped for Mathews’ best pitch, a 60-grade changeup, slugging .419 against changeups this year.
If you believe in Vladdy, drop a quarter unit on this one.
- Best bets: 13-11, +1.76 units
- SGPs: 3-22, -2.56 units
- HR picks: 3-22, -2.50 units
Cardinals vs Blue Jays odds
- Moneyline: St. Louis +130 | Toronto -150
- Run line: St. Louis +1.5 (-155) | Toronto -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Cardinals vs Blue Jays trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit just .218 over their last 27 games, a cold lineup that plays right into Kevin Gausman’s swing-and-miss splitter. Find more MLB betting trends for Cardinals vs. Blue Jays.
How to watch Cardinals vs Blue Jays and game info
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Saturday, 8-1-2026 |
| First pitch | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Quinn Matthews (0-0, 0.00 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (4-10, 4.51 ERA) |
Cardinals vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Cardinals vs Blue Jays weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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