The Philadelphia Phillies hope to take a massive step towards the final NL Wild Card berth when they host the Tampa Bay Rays tonight at Citizens Bank Park.
The game is a pick-em in part due to the Phillies handing the ball to their bullpen, and my Rays vs. Phillies prediction breaks down why that benefits the visitors.
Read on for my MLB picks for tonight's critical showdown — which could be shortened due to rough weather — with first pitch scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sept. 26.
Who will win Rays vs Phillies today: Rays moneyline
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The Philadelphia Phillies are expected to hand the ball to Jose Urquidy to start proceedings, a reliever they recently obtained off waivers.
Urquidy was waived for a reason — mainly his lack of velocity and stuff, ranking in the 23rd percentile or worse in velocity, whiff%, and K%.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays turn to Griffin Jax, who's posted an 88th-percentile chase rate and an 83rd-percentile whiff rate. He's also improved significantly at limiting hard contact since the break, allowing 0.69 HR/9 while improving his GB% from 43.5% to 48.6%.
The Phillies looked toothless without Luis Arraez last night, and his absence will hurt them again.
Play the Rays up to 53%.
COVERS INTEL: Over the past week, Philly's bullpen ranks 29th in K/BB% (8.1%) and BB/9 (5.94) and 30th in BABIP (.400). That's led to a .358 wOBA that has allowed opponents to generate runs despite a league-best 29.4% soft-hit rate. 
Rays vs Phillies Over/Under pick: Under 6.5
Given the weather tonight, I would back the Under to 51%.
The nor'easter hitting the area will bring heavy winds blowing directly in, with BallparkPal giving Citizens Bank Park a -10% HR factor.
That's a massive boost to two bullpens that have been the best in baseball over the past week at limiting hard contact, with Tampa's 21.3% hard% bested only by Philly's 17.6% mark.
Given the intermittent rain and precipitation chances climbing to 90% after midnight, any significant delays could shorten this game by multiple innings.
Rays vs Phillies home run prediction: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber has the short-porch advantage and is in a great spot against Jax, boasting a .400 ISO at home against right-handed pitching this season.
Schwarber has also posted a 50% hard-hit rate since the start of September.
- ML/RL picks: 14-18, -5.86 units
- Over/Under picks: 16-16, -1.25 units
Rays vs Phillies weather
Winds of up to 36 mph blowing directly in, combined with temperatures in the low 50s, will have a significant impact on offensive production.
Add in the strong chance of rain throughout the game, and we could be in for a long night.
Rays vs Phillies odds
- Moneyline: Rays 51% | Phillies 49%
- Run line: Rays -1.5 (42%) | Phillies +1.5 (64%)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (53%) | Under 6.5 (47%)
Rays vs Phillies trend
Tampa Bay is 6-4 SU over its last 10 contests. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Phillies.
How to watch Rays vs Phillies and game info
| Location | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date | Saturday, September 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Rays starting pitcher | Griffin Jax (8-10, 3.62 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jose Urquidy (2-2, 4.54 ERA) |
Rays vs Phillies latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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