The WNBA playoffs tip off Sunday afternoon with a matinee matchup between the New York Liberty and Minnesota Lynx, a rematch of the 2024 Finals.
New York won the season series against Minnesota, and my Liberty vs. Lynx predictions and WNBA picks expect the Liberty to cover the spread as 6.5-point road dogs.
TOP PICK
Liberty vs Lynx prediction: Liberty +6.5
The New York Liberty are one of the strongest No. 8 seeds in WNBA history, as the 2024 Finals champs and defending Commissioner’s Cup winners are finally healthy.
Injuries limited Leonie Fiebich to 21 games and Sabrina Ionescu to 31, but both are ready to go for the postseason. Breanna Stewart sat out the regular-season finale with knee soreness, and she’ll have six days off to recover.
Stylistically, the Liberty are a great counter to the Minnesota Lynx, as NY can spread the floor with multiple shooters and defend the paint against Napheesa Collier and Olivia Miles.
New York won two of three head-to-head matchups against Minnesota this season and lost the third game by only five points.
Given New York’s strong play against the Lynx and mostly healthy roster, I like the value in taking the Liberty and the points in a high-profile road matchup.
Play to 4.5.
COVERS INTEL: The Liberty finished with the most PPG (92.3), most made three-pointers (12), and highest FG% (48.3) of any opponent when facing the Lynx this season.
Liberty vs Lynx combo
Games slow down, and defense takes over in the playoffs, so I’m not betting on a monster point total between two teams ranked in the Top 7 in Defensive Rating.
New York has been successful against the Lynx offensively, but Napheesa Collier and Co. can ramp up the pressure when needed. Both teams ended the season hitting the Game Total Under in seven of their final 10 games.
Stewie finished with 20+ points in 21 of 42 games, including 12 of 21 on the road. Of all players who played multiple games against Minnesota, Stewart led all of them with 25.7 per tilt.
Her unique combination of size and shooting puts her in a favorable position to stretch the floor and take threes or score down low to put pressure on Napheesa Collier. Play to 22.5.
Liberty vs Lynx combo
- Liberty +6.5
- Under 173.5
- Breanna Stewart Over 21.5 points
Want more basketball combos? Check out our WNBA parlay picks page!
- Top picks: 37-41, -8.78 units
- Combos: 8-70, -27.5 units
Liberty vs Lynx odds
- Spread: Liberty +6.5 | Lynx -6.5
- Moneyline: Liberty 71% | Lynx 30%
- Over/Under: Over 172.5 | Under 172.5
Liberty vs Lynx trend
New York and Minnesota have gone Under 172.5 in seven of their last 10 H2H meetings. Find more WNBA betting trends.
How to watch Liberty vs Lynx
| Location | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 27, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Liberty vs Lynx latest injuries
Liberty: TBD.
Lynx: TBD.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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