Anytime TD Scorer Predictions: The 25 Best Value NFL Anytime TD Markets Week 3

By Week 3, the betting public stops guessing and starts hallucinating.

It takes roughly 120 minutes of football for collective sanity to exit the room. Two games of noise get treated like gospel: an elite red-zone target who drew eight quarters of bracket coverage is pronounced dead, while a fourth-string gadget receiver running on pure touchdown luck catches more trading volume than a perennial All-Pro.

That two-game delusion is an absolute gift. Prediction market traders aggressively inflate the price on lightning strikes while hanging generous discounts on established studs whose underlying value never actually changed. 

Our mission is finding the friction between surface box scores and actual structural leverage: here are the best Anytime TD Scorer predictions for NFL Week 3.

Best anytime TD scorer predictions for Week 3

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator. Our value grades are meant to complement Josh Inglis' NFL anytime touchdown picks for Week 3.

Rank, Index score	Player	Position	Probability
1, 74	Woody Marks vs.	RB	28%
2, 74	Travis Kelce vs.	TE	38%
3, 70	Rashod Bateman vs.	WR	32%
4, 69	Xavier Worthy vs.	WR	32%
5, 68	Mark Andrews vs.	TE	37%
6, 68	Dalton Schultz vs.	TE	28%
7, 68	Khalil Shakir vs.	WR	31%
8, 68	CeeDee Lamb vs.	WR	45%
9, 68	Rashee Rice vs.	WR	38%
10, 67	Tyquan Thornton vs.	WR	18%
11, 66	James Cook vs.	RB	62%
12, 66	Kenneth Walker III vs.	RB	65%
13, 66	Dalton Kincaid vs.	TE	27%
14, 66	Tetairoa McMillan vs.	WR	31%
15, 65	Kyren Williams vs.	RB	54%
16, 64	Patrick Mahomes vs.	QB	21%
17, 64	Kyler Murray vs.	QB	21%
18, 64	Quinshon Judkins vs.	RB	44%
19, 64	Cam Skattebo vs.	RB	41%
20, 64	Amon-Ra St. Brown vs.	WR	53%
21, 64	Deebo Samuel vs.	WR	33%
22, 63	Jalen Hurts vs.	QB	39%
23, 63	David Montgomery vs.	RB	48%
24, 63	Breece Hall vs.	RB	47%
25, 63	George Kittle vs.	TE	32%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps

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The best Week 3 anytime TD predictions

Woody Marks | RB 28%

• The Market Illusion: “David Montgomery still controls Houston’s short-yardage work, while Marks has not scored through two games.”

• The Structural Reality: Marks has 17 carries and six receptions through two games, giving him both rushing and receiving touchdown paths. Nico Collins’ hamstring injury removes Houston’s primary end-zone target, potentially creating more designed touches for the backfield.

  The Indianapolis Colts present a strong interior front on the backs of DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, so Marks may be better positioned to score through a screen, angle route or outside run than on a conventional goal-line carry. Montgomery remains the primary threat to his touchdown share.

  At 28%, Marks needs to score once every 3.57 games. His versatile role, Collins’ absence and Houston’s 23.5-point implied total make that +257 equivalent price attractive, producing the group-leading index score of 74.

Rashod Bateman | WR  32%

• The Market Illusion: “Bateman’s Week 2 breakout has already captured his expanded scoring role.”

• The Structural Reality: With Zay Flowers sidelined, Bateman led Baltimore with nine targets, producing seven catches, 88 yards and a touchdown. Flowers then missed Wednesday’s practice, preserving Bateman’s potential WR1 role.

  Baltimore carries a strong 28-point implied total, while Dallas has allowed touchdowns on 71.4% of red-zone possessions. Derrick Henry, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews nevertheless create substantial scoring competition.

  Bateman’s 19-point market-value grade reflects meaningful upside at 32%. His 70 index is justified if Flowers sits; a Flowers return would materially reduce his target certainty.

CeeDee Lamb | WR  45%

• The Market Illusion: “Lamb’s two-touchdown Week 2 performance has inflated his price immediately before a difficult matchup with Baltimore’s secondary.”

• The Structural Reality: Lamb caught two of Dak Prescott’s four touchdowns against Washington, reaffirming his status as a designed end-zone option. The Cowboys also carry a 24.75-point implied total in one of Week 3’s strongest projected scoring environments.

  Baltimore can counter with Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins at cornerback, Kyle Hamilton in a hybrid coverage role and Malaki Starks over the top. Roquan Smith also restricts the intermediate areas where Lamb regularly works after motion.

  The 45% market probability is demanding, requiring Lamb to score almost once every two games. His elite red-zone role justifies the 23-point RZG score, but much of that advantage is already incorporated into the price. That balance produces a strong but non-elite index score of 68.

James Cook | RB  62%

• The Market Illusion: “Buffalo is projected to score nearly four touchdowns, so its lead running back should be comfortably more likely than not to score.”

• The Structural Reality: Cook has opened the season with 34 carries for 192 yards and a touchdown, averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. Buffalo also owns Week 3’s highest implied team total at approximately 28.75 points.

  The Chargers can defend the run with Dalvin Tomlinson and Teair Tart inside, Daiyan Henley at linebacker and Khalil Mack setting the edge. Cook must also compete with Josh Allen, one of the NFL’s most dangerous short-yardage quarterbacks, for opportunities near the goal line.

  Cook possesses the best overall touchdown profile in this group, reflected by his 24-point red-zone grade. However, a 62% probability is expensive. The index score of 66 therefore represents an elite role offered at a price that leaves limited value.

Tetairoa McMillan | WR  31%

• The Market Illusion: “McMillan has accumulated 176 receiving yards without scoring, while Carolina’s modest team total limits his touchdown ceiling.”

• The Structural Reality: McMillan has caught 10 passes for 176 yards, including five for 101 yards against Atlanta. At 6-foot-4 and 220 pounds, he is naturally suited to fades, back-shoulder throws and contested end-zone targets.

  The index credits him with seven early red-zone targets, although stricter play-by-play definitions record four official targets inside the 20 and three inside the 10. Either measure confirms meaningful scoring usage.

  Cleveland can deploy Denzel Ward or Tyson Campbell in coverage, with Grant Delpit providing support underneath. However, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah’s absence removes a versatile coverage defender. Carolina’s 21.5-point implied total restricts the overall environment, but McMillan’s size and concentrated red-zone role make the price playable, supporting his 66 score.

Patrick Mahomes | QB  21%

• The Market Illusion: “Mahomes is a passer first, and Kenneth Walker gives Kansas City little reason to expose its quarterback near the goal line.”

• The Structural Reality: Mahomes has already rushed nine times for 40 yards and a touchdown this season after recording 422 yards and five rushing scores in 2025. His touchdown path includes designed keepers, scrambles and goal-line improvisation.

  Kansas City carries an implied total of approximately 28 points against a Miami defense that has allowed 62 points and recorded no sacks through two games. All-Pro linebacker Jordyn Brooks is the Dolphins’ best option for monitoring Mahomes, with Zach Sieler anchoring the interior.

  Walker and Kansas City’s receiving depth create considerable touchdown competition. Nevertheless, Mahomes only needs to score 21% of the time to justify the price. His rushing precedent and elite scoring environment produce an index score of 64.

Cam Skattebo | RB  41%

• The Market Illusion: “Skattebo is being priced like an established lead back even though New York’s quarterback injury could sharply reduce its scoring opportunities.”

• The Structural Reality: Skattebo returned in Week 1 with 18 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown, giving him eight scores across his first nine NFL games. His physical running style makes him New York’s most natural goal-line option.

  Tennessee’s Jeffery Simmons and John Franklin-Myers form a difficult defensive interior, supported by linebackers Cody Barton and Cedric Gray. Coming off a loss to Philadelphia where the Eagles run game was decimated: it’s easy to imagine the Titans front seven will come in with a spring in their step.

  Skattebo will need consistent blocking rather than relying exclusively on broken tackles.

  Jaxson Dart’s season-ending knee injury is the central concern. It may increase Skattebo’s direct rushing share, but it also lowers the Giants’ offensive ceiling and could lead defenses to crowd the box. His secure scoring role supports a 64 index score, although the 41% price leaves little margin if New York struggles to sustain drives.

Jalen Hurts | QB  39%

• The Market Illusion: “Hurts’ reputation as Philadelphia’s goal-line finisher automatically makes him valuable at any available price.”

• The Structural Reality: Hurts has recorded 12 carries for 62 yards through two games but no rushing touchdown. His short-yardage role remains intact: Philadelphia used him on a fourth-and-one sneak in Week 2, but Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby provide competing goal-line options.

  Chicago has allowed touchdowns on 80% of opponent red-zone possessions, although Philadelphia’s modest 23-point team total limits the environment.

  The 21-point red-zone grade supports a 63 index, but the valuation is provisional. The earlier +135 price implied 42.6%; without a confirmed current price, the 14-point market-value grade cannot be fully validated.

George Kittle | TE  32%

• The Market Illusion: “San Francisco’s 28-point projection makes its premier tight end an obvious touchdown purchase.”

• The Structural Reality: Kittle has caught six of nine targets for 92 yards and one touchdown, including four catches for 80 yards and a score in Week 2. However, his snap share has remained around 47% following January’s Achilles tear, creating greater workload uncertainty than his name recognition suggests.

  Arizona’s 62.5% red-zone touchdown rate allowed is favorable, but Christian McCaffrey and San Francisco’s deep collection of finishers dilute Kittle’s goal-line share.

  The 14-point team-environment grade drives his profile. At 32%, the 63 index represents reasonable rather than exceptional value because reduced playing time restricts his touchdown routes.

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The Anytime Touchdown props to avoid this week

Every week, the Covers Anytime Touchdown value index flags the five of the worst Anytime Touchdown propositions on the board.

We aren't talking about the longest odds or the lowest raw probabilities. We are talking about toxic ROI. These are the spots where the public narrative has inflated the price so severely that the bet is mathematically dead on arrival.

If you want your ROI tracker to look like an Atlanta Falcons’ QB passing chart: these are your picks.

Player	Position	Probability	Index Score
Luther Burden III vs.	WR	21%	38
Malik Willis vs.	QB	24%	35
Marvin Harrison Jr. vs.	WR	18%	35
Baker Mayfield vs.	QB	11%	34

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NFL Week 3 best anytime touchdown bets by position

If you are strictly a running back investor, or you only play tight end markets, we have you covered. The index slices the board by position, giving you the top ten clearest value plays across every skill group, ensuring you aren't just betting blindly into a crowded market.

Top 10 quarterback TD props for Week 3

Player	Probability	Index Score	Notes
Patrick Mahomes vs.	21%	64	Designed rushing upside in elite environment
Kyler Murray vs.	21%	64	Mobile scorer facing vulnerable front
Jalen Hurts vs.	39%	63	Premier goal-line role despite missing price
Lamar Jackson vs.	31%	61	Explosive rushing equity in projected shootout
Josh Allen vs.	57%	60	Dominant scoring role fully market-priced
Bryce Young vs.	16%	55	Discounted scramble upside against Cleveland
Brock Purdy vs.	22%	54	Occasional keeper boosted by team total
Deshaun Watson vs.	20%	50	Mobile upside tempered by role volatility
Dak Prescott vs.	12%	49	Long odds compensate for sparse rushing
Justin Herbert vs.	12%	48	Modest rushing equity restricts value

Top 10 running back TD props for Week 3

Player	Probability	Index Score	Notes
Woody Marks vs.	28%	74	Expanded role with Nico Collins out
James Cook vs.	62%	66	Elite role but high price
Kenneth Walker III vs.	65%	66	Great role; market price absorbs most value
Kyren Williams vs.	54%	65	Strong goal-line role; close to fair
Quinshon Judkins vs.	44%	64	Strong workload against vulnerable defense
Cam Skattebo vs.	41%	64	41% converts to +144
David Montgomery vs.	48%	63	Soft matchup but short price
Breece Hall vs.	47%	63	Excellent matchup; market already aggressive
Chuba Hubbard vs.	52%	62	Secure workload; price near ceiling
Travis Etienne Jr. vs.	37%	62	Strong goal-line role at workable price

Top 10 wide receiver TD props for Week 3

Player	Probability	Index Score	Notes
Rashod Bateman vs.	32%	70	Flowers uncertainty concentrates end-zone opportunities
Xavier Worthy vs.	32%	69	Speed role amplified by scoring environment
CeeDee Lamb vs.	45%	68	Elite end-zone usage meets premium price
Khalil Shakir vs.	31%	68	Efficient role attached to slate-leading offense
Rashee Rice vs.	38%	68	Volume remains strong despite restrictive price
Tyquan Thornton vs.	18%	67	Cheap exposure to prolific passing attack
Tetairoa McMillan vs.	31%	66	Concentrated red-zone looks outweigh modest total
Amon-Ra St. Brown vs.	53%	64	Heavy scoring usage already priced aggressively
Deebo Samuel vs.	33%	64	Multiple touchdown routes strengthen weekly ceiling
Davante Adams vs.	43%	63	Red-zone share rises if Nacua sits

Top 10 tight end TD props for Week 3

Player	Probability	Index Score	Notes
Travis Kelce vs.	38%	74	Premier goal-line role meets favorable matchup
Mark Andrews vs.	37%	68	Established red-zone chemistry in shootout conditions
Dalton Schultz vs.	28%	68	Collins absence redirects valuable middle-field targets
Dalton Kincaid vs.	27%	66	Affordable access to Buffalo scoring volume
George Kittle vs.	32%	63	Efficient red-zone weapon in favorable environment
Noah Gray vs.	12%	60	Long price offsets secondary receiving role
T.J. Hockenson vs.	22%	59	Discounted target profile against exploitable coverage
Terrance Ferguson vs.	19%	59	Nacua absence would expand scoring routes
Tyler Warren vs.	26%	57	Reliable usage constrained by team environment
Dawson Knox vs.	27%	66	Secondary role in a strong offense

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How we decide which week 3 NFL anytime TDs to pick

Behind the Covers Anytime Touchdown Value Index is a screening matrix built on cold, structural math to help make the best anytime TD scorer predictions every week.

We don't care about media hype. We don't care who went viral on Sunday.

Our system runs a multi-layered data ingest, cross-referencing live play-by-play mechanics against odds from the sharpest sportsbooks in the world. We look at dozens of hyper-specific metrics, including: 

Player red-zone touches, inside the opponent’s 20-yard line	Weekly point spread
Player goal-to-go touches, approximated as touches inside the 5-yard line	Implied team total, derived from the total and spread
Player share of the team’s red-zone touches	Best available anytime-touchdown price
Player share of the team’s goal-to-go touches	Number of sportsbooks offering that price
Player red-zone touchdowns	Implied probability
Player red-zone touchdown rate per red-zone touch	Median market implied probability when multiple books are supplied
Team red-zone trips	Number of completed games played by the player’s team
Team offensive red-zone touchdown percentage	Prior-season weighting, used while the current-season sample develops
Opponent red-zone trips faced	Current injuries, availability, workload changes, and role stability
Opponent red-zone touchdown percentage allowed	Player position, team, opponent, and scheduled matchup
Weekly game total

This isn't a black box running on mystery algorithms. It is a highly calibrated heuristic engine. We map our proprietary scoring against the market’s implied probability to isolate the exact friction points where pricing lags behind actual on-field volume. It is a premium, data-driven edge built to find the value before the market wakes up.

The lines are already moving. The public is currently throwing money at stale narratives. Trust the math and exploit the structural friction to secure your closing line value before kickoff.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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