A jam-packed slate means more opportunity for long balls in my MLB player props home run analysis.
I'm eyeing Nolan Arenado to take the struggling Walker Buehler deep tonight, while Randy Arozarena is also an HR candidate against Ryan Johnson. To round things out, I have Ivan Herrera going yard against ex-teammate Dustin May.
Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 26.
MLB home run props for today
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Nolan Arenado
Ivan Herrera
Home run prediction: Nolan Arenado (16%)
Play up to 20%.
Nolan Arenado has been smashing baseballs lately. The Arizona Diamondbacks slugger has four home runs in his last six contests while posting a ridiculous .520 ISO. Arenado is also hitting .440 during that span.
The veteran will face San Diego Padres righty Walker Buehler tonight, who owns a 5.72 FIP over the last month while giving up an alarming 2.28 HR/9.
Although Arenado is just 7-for-38 lifetime against Buehler, two of those hits left the yard.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Padres.TV, DBacks.TV
Home run prediction: Ivan Herrera (12%)
Play up to 16%.
Ivan Herrera is one of the St. Louis Cardinals' hottest hitters at the moment. He's gone deep three times in his last six contests, and Herrera has a .417 ISO during that span. The underlying metrics back up his recent surge, too.
The 38.5% hard-hit rate isn't spectacular, but Herrera's 23.1% barrel rate over his previous 27 plate appearances jumps off the page. He's also posted a 46.2% FB rate in the last week. The 26-year-old will face Dustin May tonight, who has allowed 1.96 HR/9 over his last five outings.
Don't overlook Herrera at this price.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Brewers.TV, Cardinals.TV
- HR picks: 19-102, -15.72 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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