The Atlanta Braves enter today’s game as the 44% underdog against the Houston Astros, and my Braves vs. Astros predictions break down why there’s value on the visitors this afternoon, with the first pitch flying at 2:10 p.m. ET from Daikin Park.
Keep reading for my MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 20.
Who will win Braves vs Astros today: Braves moneyline
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
The Houston Astros are 57% favorites today, but there’s not much to like about their offense lately.
Houston ranks 29th in the majors in runs scored (56), 25th in team batting average (.225), and 30th in on-base percentage (.285) since the start of September.
Atlanta Braves starter Martin Perez has been trending in the right direction since the start of August. His 2.28 ERA is tied for 15th among all starters, while his barrel percentage (2%) is second only to Blake Snell.
The Braves are averaging 5.88 runs per game over their last eight outings, and that’ll be more than enough support for Perez.
Back the Braves up to 50%.
COVERS INTEL: Perez throws his changeup more than 30% of the time. The Astros are 27th in wOBA versus changeups from lefties (.232).
Braves vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5
Perez has allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his last nine starts, and the Braves' bullpen ranks third in ERA (3.41).
The Braves’ pitching staff should be able to limit an Astros offense that’s averaging just 2.89 runs per game over the team's last nine contests, with three runs or fewer in six of those outings.
Astros starter Hunter Brown has also been solid down the stretch, posting a 2.84 xERA since the start of August, sitting 13th-best in MLB.
I’d play the Under up to 56%.
Braves vs Astros home run prediction: Acuna Jr.
Ronald Acuna Jr. is absolutely mashing the baseball right now while registering seven dingers in September, including three in his last four games.
The star outfielder has been producing an insane .714 slugging percentage and 1.096 OPS this month. He also carries a career .444 average and 1.111 OPS against Brown.
- ML/RL picks: 9-10, -2.47 units
- Over/Under picks: 9-10, -1.36 units
Braves vs Astros weather
The roof will be closed at Daikin Park today, so weather will not be a factor.
Braves vs Astros odds
- Moneyline: Braves 44% | Astros 57%
- Run line: Braves +1.5 (62%) | Astros -1.5 (39%)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (48%) | Under 8.5 (53%)
Braves vs Astros trend
The Under is 4-1 in the last five starts for both Perez and Brown. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Astros. Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Astros.
How to watch Braves vs Astros and game info
| Location | Daikin Park, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026 |
| First pitch | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, Space City HN |
| Braves starting pitcher | Martin Perez (9-9, 3.07 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher | Hunter Brown (6-3, 3.43 ERA) |
Braves vs Astros latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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