We have a busy betting slate today, including the series opener between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Detroit Tigers.
Bowden Francis has had a rough month on the mound for Toronto, and my Blue Jays predictions will continue fading him with the Tigers’ surging offense in town.
Find out more in my free MLB picks for this Friday, May 16 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for May 16
- Best bet
Francis o5.5 hits
(-137 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Francis o5.5 hits
Francis o2.5 earned runs
Bichette o1.5 total bases
(+260 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Bowden's struggles continue
Bowden Francis Over 5.5 hits (-137 at BetVictor)
The Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers begin a new three-game set tonight at the Rogers Centre.
Detroit sends Jack Flaherty to the mound, while the Jays respond with the struggling Bowden Francis, who’s been a profitable fade play over the past month.
The Blue Jays are 2-4 over Francis’ last six starts, where he’s given up 23 runs and an MLB-high 10 homers in that stretch.
Not only has the right-hander been hit hard, but he’s also allowed a .298 batting average and an average of six hits per start — which is more than tonight's posted betting total of 5.5.
Francis has given up six or more hits in four straight games, where he’s 0-3 with an 8.20 ERA and seven long balls served up in that stretch. It’s been a tough year overall for the 29-year-old, as he ranks in the 5th percentile in both expected ERA and expected batting average.
All of this spells trouble against a well-balanced Tigers offense that boasts a 116 wRC+, ranking third in the MLB with the fourth-most hits and seventh-most home runs.
This Tigers lineup should have a field day against Francis, especially in a hitter-friendly ballpark like the Rogers Centre.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Bowden Francis Over 5.5 hits
Bowden Francis Over 2.5 earned runs
Bo Bichette Over 1.5 total bases
I’ll continue to fade Francis and take Over 2.5 earned runs. He’s gone Over this total in four straight outings and five of his last six starts.
Francis has been susceptible to the long ball, and the Tigers rank seventh in all of baseball in home runs. They also enter tonight third in runs scored overall.
For the final leg of our SGP, let’s ride Bo Bichette’s hot bat and take him to eclipse 1.5 total bases. The Jays' shortstop is batting .359 over the last week with four multi-hit games in that six-game stretch, averaging three bases per game.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Friday, May 16, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.40 ERA) |
| Tigers starting pitcher | Jack Flaherty (1-5, 4.61 ERA) |
Not intended for use in MA.
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