Toronto Blue Jays

Picks

Kyle Schwarber is in a prime spot against Max Scherzer and the Blue Jays tonight. The Phillies slugger owns a 70.8% arsenal coverage rate against Scherzer's pitch mix and has historically thrived in elite-rated matchups, homering 28.34% of the time. Scherzer has struggled against left-handed hitters this season, allowing a 14.9% barrel rate, 76.6% elevation rate, and an 8.51 xERA at home. Even with a modest recent batting average against right-handed pitching, Schwarber continues to make loud contact, posting a 61.5% hard-hit rate over his last 30 plate appearances. Expect him to elevate the baseball and create extra-base damage.

Max Scherzer is coming off the IL today and should be good for his usual 80-pitch workload. That's great news for the Phillies' bats, as the veteran right-hander has already allowed seven home runs in just under 20 innings of work this season. The roof should be open, and the fly balls should be plentiful for the visitors. It's a small sample, but Scherzer ranks 21st-worst among MLB starters in HR/FB rate, which pairs poorly with his seventh-worst groundball rate at 27.7%. A lot of Philadelphia bats are popping in the projections. There are several Phillies hitters who have seen Scherzer more than 20 times, but at the current prices, Bryce Harper at +402 stands out as one of the best +EV home run plays, per the projections powered by THE BAT. Left-handed hitters are crushing Scherzer this year, and Harper has taken him deep three times in 24 at-bats, which isn't an insignificant head-to-head sample.

Rogers Centre ranks as the #24 venue in the game for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Compared to his seasonal mark of 16.7°, Kazuma Okamoto has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (8.9°) over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adolis Garcia in the 87th percentile when estimating his home run skill.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #4 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Adolis Garcia has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 9% seasonal rate to 30.8% in the past week's worth of games.. Adolis Garcia has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.4-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 92.4-mph figure.

Bryce Harper projects as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 4th-best field in baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage over Max Scherzer in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 2nd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 4th-best field in baseball for left-handed home runs.. Hitting from the opposite that Max Scherzer throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have the upper hand in today's game.. The Toronto Blue Jays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #4 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. J.T. Realmuto has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 11th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Over the last week, J.T. Realmuto's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 4.5% up to 25%.. J.T. Realmuto has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.6-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 89-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Alec Bohm is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #4 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Alec Bohm has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 11th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Alec Bohm has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 92.8-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

When assessing his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 15th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trea Turner is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #4 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Trea Turner has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 11th-shallowest RF fences today.. Despite posting a .276 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trea Turner has had bad variance on his side given the .054 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects George Springer in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. George Springer is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #4 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Because of Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, George Springer will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.. George Springer hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 10th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Bryce Harper projects as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Rogers Centre as the 4th-best field in baseball for left-handed home runs.. In the majors, Rogers Centre's CF dimensions are the 10th-shallowest.. Bryce Harper will hold the platoon advantage over Max Scherzer in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 80th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Alec Bohm is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. Rogers Centre grades out as the #4 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Alec Bohm has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 11th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. Alec Bohm has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 92.8-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.