We’ve got a busy betting slate around Major League Baseball tonight, including a matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles.
Ernie Clement has crushed left-handed pitching and has seen some power return lately. The value on his total bases prop is too good to pass up with a lefty on the mound.
Find out why with my Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this September 12 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for September 12
- Best bet
Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
(+130 at BetVictor) - SGP pick
Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 2.5 total bases
Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 strikeouts
(+460 at BetVictor)
Today’s Blue Jays best bet: Ernie earns his keep
Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at BetVictor)
Trevor Rogers has had a nice season, pairing an impressive 8-2 record with a 1.51 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP. However, his underlying metrics suggest he’s due for a little regression.
Despite his strong surface numbers, his xERA is 3.06 and he ranks in the 67th percentile in xBA. He also ranks in the ninth percentile in hard-hit rate, and 30th percentile in exit velocity.
Enter lefty masher, Ernie Clement.
Clement has a .918 OPS against lefties this year, showing more pop against them with 22 extra base hits in just 154 plate appearances.
Additionally, the Toronto Blue Jays infielder is a career .345 hitter vs. the Baltimore Orioles, while hitting .333 vs. Rogers through his career.
He’s also seeing the ball well recently, generating at least one hit in five of his last six games, with four doubles in that stretch, averaging 1.83 total bases per game.
Today’s Blue Jays same-game parlay (SGP)
Ernie Clement Over 1.5 total bases
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
Trevor Rogers Under 5.5 strikeouts
It’s a good matchup for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as Rogers throws a four-seam fastball primarily and gives up a lot of hard contact. Vladdy owns a .346 xBA average against that pitch and ranks in the 92nd percentile in both hard-hit rate and exit velocity.
For the final leg, I’ll take Under 5.5 strikeouts for O’s starter. He’s a contact pitcher with just a 23% strikeout rate, ranking him in the 59th percentile among MLB starters. The Jays own the lowest strikeout rate in all of baseball.
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Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch the Blue Jays today
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Friday, September 12, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Trevor Rogers (8-2, 1.51 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Chris Bassitt (11-8, 3.97 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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