The Toronto Blue Jays will host the Seattle Mariners for Game 1 of the ALCS tonight at the Rogers Centre.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. found his power swing in the ALDS, and I expect him to continue to pound the baseball with Bryce Miller on the mound for the M’s.
Find out why with my free Toronto Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks for this October 12 matchup.
Blue Jays predictions for ALCS Game 1
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime HR | +320 |
| • Guerrero Jr. anytime HR • Clement 1+ hit • Blue Jays ML |
+600 |
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Blue Jays ALCS Game 1 best bet: PLAKATA
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime home run (+320 at BET99)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homered in three of the four games in the ALDS, and I expect him to start this ALCS with a bang as well against a pitcher who gives up a lot of hard contact.
Bryce Miller has struggled mightily since returning from injury back on August 6. In the 10 starts since his return (playoffs included), the Mariners‘ starter is 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA, allowing an average of 3.3 runs against per game.
One of his biggest issues over that stretch has been the inability to limit the long ball.
Miller has allowed 12 home runs over his last 10 starts and ranks in the 1st percentile in all of baseball, allowing an average exit velocity of 92.4 mph on his pitches, while also ranking in the 2nd percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 7th percentile in xBA.
This should have Guerrero Jr. salivating tonight, considering he ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA through the regular season and seems to be launching everything deep this postseason — boasting a 1.059 slug rate and a 1.609 OPS through the ALDS.
Additionally, Guerrero had a .577 expected slug rate against the four seamer, which Miller throws 41% of the time, and is the culprit of 64% of his total homers allowed this season.
So with Vladdy finding his power swing this postseason, coupled with Miller’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, Guerrero Jr.’s home run prop feels like the play to make today.
Today’s Blue Jays Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anytime home run
Ernie Clement 1+ hit
Blue Jays moneyline
Ernie Clement was a tough out in the ALDS, getting a hit in nine of his last 11 ABs. He’s also 2-for-2 in his career vs. Miller.
The Jays have the far better starting pitcher and are well rested with a few days off. Seattle had to travel to Toronto on short rest after playing a 15-inning marathon the other night, burning through multiple arms. That’s a big advantage for Toronto in Game 1.
Live Blue Jays odds for today
How to watch Blue Jays Game 1
| Location | Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date | Sunday, October 12, 2025 |
| First pitch | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rogers Sportsnet |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher | Kevin Gausman (1-0, 1.59 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryce Miller (0-0, 4.15 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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