The WNBA regular season has reached its final day, and four teams remain alive for the final two playoff spots.
Minnesota is one of those four, and while the Lynx need help to slip into the playoffs, that help can only come following their game.
Thus, they will have the most motivation possible to get past Connecticut, which not only is already sealed a playoff spot, but is also locked itself into the No. 3 seed as well.
Here are our free WNBA picks and predictions for the Lynx vs. Sun on August 14, with tip set for 1:00 ET.
Lynx vs Sun odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Sun opened as a 9.5-point favorites late Saturday morning. That initially bumped to -10 at some books before steadily moving down to -7.5 or -7.0 by the evening. The total moved much less, opening at 164.0 in the morning and returning to that number after a brief bounce to 164.5.
Lynx vs Sun predictions
Predictions made on 8/13/2022 at 6:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Lynx vs Sun info
• Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
• Date: Sunday, August 14, 2022
• Tip-off: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Lynx vs Sun betting preview
Lynx: Damiris Dantas F (Out).
Sun: Bria Hartley PG (Out), Jasmine Thomas G (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Lynx are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sun.
Lynx vs Sun picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Las Vegas is filled with tall and shiny buildings for a few reasons, and one of those is because sportsbooks do not make WNBA lines their focus. If they did, bookmakers would recognize the situational spot here that screams for a shortened line and some credit to the Lynx.
Minnesota began the season 4-13 outright. Since then, the Lynx have averaged the third-most points per game in the WNBA, nearly a full point ahead of Connecticut. Minnesota’s defensive rating is not kept pace with the Sun’s, which is tops in the league, but the Lynx are No. 5 in defensive rating since June 21.
Looking at Minnesota through that prism alone makes it clear this game could be a competitive one, not one befitting a spread that some books first posted at 10 points.
Connecticut also has nothing to play for. Rest would make the most sense for the Sun, as their starters all logged at least 23 minutes in a route at Los Angeles on Thursday.
The Lynx, meanwhile, need to win to have any hope of making the playoffs. As the first game of the day, there is no reason to even consider the help needed. Minnesota knows it needs to win for that help to matter.
In most sports, Vegas would adjust to this kind of motivational situation. The lack of such an adjustment is not a reason to be scared away.
Prediction: Lynx +8.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
Sticking with the thought process of drive in Sunday's contest, the Sun will probably not play their starters throughout this game.
That alone should lower this total, yet it is higher than Connecticut’s last two games and notably higher than the average in its last 10 games, 162.7. Furthermore, if this game is close late, the Sun will have little reason to lengthen the game via free throws.
In fact, the Sun will have incentive to do the exact opposite — avoid injuries.
The last two games between these two teams may have gone Over both their totals and this number in late July. However, the circumstances of this match differ so greatly, and ignoring those results holds merit.
Prediction: Under 165.6 (-110 at DraftKings)
One team needs to win. The other is ambivalent and should rest its starters. Why in the world would you put your money anywhere but on the Lynx moneyline?
At +310 as of early Saturday evening, the value is too great to ignore. Is Connecticut better than Minnesota? Yes.
But, will the Sun be better than the Lynx on the court on Sunday afternoon? There is no reason to think Connecticut will care enough.
Pick: Lynx moneyline (+310 at FanDuel)
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