2024 WNBA Championship Odds: Aces Still Favorites as Free Agency Shuffles the Deck

Not even key injuries and the New York Liberty superteam could stop the Las Vegas Aces from repeating as champs. See who's threatening the three-peat as the 2024 WNBA championship odds take shape in free agency.

Feb 29, 2024 • 11:30 ET • 3 min read
Kelsey Plum WNBA
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Last season's WNBA odds to win the championship were clearly a two-team race, but it didn't seem to matter. 

Viewership exploded as the league enjoyed its most popular season to date, priming it for expansion and showcasing its players to legions of new fans. 

And in the end, despite the seemingly inevitable Finals matchup between the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty, we were treated to an impressive finale, with the Aces becoming the first team to repeat as champs in over 20 years.

With free agency more or less wrapped, the 2024 WNBA Finals odds have been on the move, and while the Aces and Liberty are still favorites, there's plenty shaking up elsewhere. Let's take a look at the latest WNBA championship odds.

2024 WNBA championship odds

Team DraftKings FanDuel
Aces Las Vegas Aces +100 +100
Liberty New York Liberty +250 +230
Sun Connecticut Sun +1,200 +1,200
Storm Seattle Storm +1,200 +1,000
Wings Dallas Wings +2,000 +2,700
Fever Indiana Fever +2,200 +2,700
Mercury Phoenix Mercury +2,200 +2,300
Dream Atlanta Dream +5,000 +4,500
Lynx Minnesota Lynx +5,000 +5,000
Mystics Washington Mystics +8,000 +8,500
Sky Chicago Sky +8,000 +10,000
Sparks Los Angeles Sparks +8,000 +8,500

Odds as of February 29, 2024.

WNBA championship favorites

Las Vegas Aces (+100)

Vegas returned its entire core from 2022's championship squad for the expanded 2023 season and looked even more dangerous with Candace Parker in the fold. They slumped a bit in her absence, looking tired at times, but still finished with a WNBA-best 34-6 record.

Even without Parker, Vegas dialed it up a notch in the playoffs, with several All-Stars flanking WNBA MVP odds robbery victim A'ja Wilson, the poise and experience of a defending champ, and the continuity of a roster in sync. They looked sharp in the postseason, rarely letting up. 

Wilson eviscerated everything in her path for most of the playoffs, sending a resounding message after her MVP snub, and Vegas', um, "supporting cast" (comprised of several MVP candidates) provided plenty of two-way brilliance, especially when reigning Finals MVP Chelsea Gray and defensive stalwart Kiah Stokes went down before Game 4's clincher. 

The Aces are the first repeat champs in over two decades and are favored for the three-peat, with their core returning after Parker's re-signing.

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New York Liberty (+230 to +250)

The Liberty front office sensed they were ready to win a year ago, acquiring 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones for pennies on the dollar from Connecticut, then days later, signing eventual 2023 MVP Breanna Stewart, netting the Liberty two of the league's best players.

With a Big 3 (along with Sabrina Ionescu) to rival the Aces' elite core, and Courtney Vandersloot and Betnijah Laney also in tow, the WNBA looked like a two-team league at the start of the season, and that held true for months.

While the Liberty held a slight lead going into the second half of the Finals' Game 1, Vegas put the clamps on, holding them to just 33 second-half points while cruising to an easy win. Everything came undone in Game 2, with the Liberty being outscored 38-19 in the opening quarter, eventually blown out 104-76.

And while Game 3's victory was the ultimate tide-turner, there was simply no denying the Aces. 

While the Liberty missed out on rumored target Nneka Ogwumike in free agency, Stewart's much-assumed re-signing was made official on February 27, keeping the Liberty's core intact for another title run.

Big WNBA title odds movers in free agency

WNBA free agency began on February 1, and while no one made a move to challenge the WNBA's two superteams in the eyes of sportsbooks, there's been plenty of movement on the fringes.

The biggest risers are the Seattle Storm, who signed former MVP Ogwumike on February 5, in addition to their previous acquisition of Skylar Diggins-Smith, an All-WNBA First Teamer when she last played in 2022. The addition of two elite talents to flank Jewell Loyd (herself an All-WNBA Second Teamer last season) skyrocketed Seattle up to the +1,000 range, previously a league-worst +6,500 at multiple major books. 

Also trending in a positive direction are the Phoenix Mercury, who saw various factors tear down a playoff threat last season. But with Natasha Cloud and former Finals MVP Kahleah Copper joining Brittney Griner for a title chase, Phoenix has seen its odds rise, now up in the +2,500 range after also being basement-dwellers entering free agency.

Of course, their improved odds have to come at someone's expense. The Liberty have seen minuscule scale-back on their odds since free agency started, while the Sparks and Sky, who lost Ogwumike and Copper, respectively, have tumbled down the odds board.

But perhaps the key to the 2024 championship odds movement so far has been the Washington Mystics, who were as short as +1,800 entering free agency, and now as long as +8,500 after losing Cloud and franchise star Elena Delle Donne. 

Understanding WNBA championship odds

Sportsbooks will post odds for the WNBA Finals shortly after the previous season's conclusion. These odds are constantly adjusted throughout the offseason as players switch teams or are injured. Once the regular season begins (May), title odds will change daily as teams win and lose games and more roster changes occur. Sportsbooks will also adjust the WNBA odds based on handle and liability to certain teams.

WNBA Championship odds will usually look like this:

  • Phoenix Mercury +300

This means that on a $100 bet, you'll stand to win $300 if the Mercury win the WNBA title. If it's close to the end of the season and the WNBA has a particularly dominant team, you might see a minus sign (-) ahead of its odds. 

  • Chicago Sky -380

This means you have to bet $380 to win $100 on a Sky championship.

Above we have posted the American odds for the WNBA championship. However, these are easy to convert to decimal odds or fractional odds with our odds converter tool. And don't forget to check out our WNBA forum if you're interested in chatting with other basketball bettors about WNBA odds. 

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WNBA Championship odds trends

Here are some trends to keep in mind when betting on WNBA championship futures: 

  • The Western Conference has won eight of the past 10 WNBA championships, and three of the past four.

  • The No. 1 overall seed has gone on to win the title in seven of the past 10 seasons.

  • The Houston Comets, Seattle Storm, and Minnesota Lynx are tied for most all-time WNBA Championships with four apiece.

  • The Aces' 2023 win was the first time a team had repeated as WNBA champs since the Los Angeles Sparks in 2002.

Past WNBA Finals winners

Season WNBA Finals winner Runner up
2023 Las Vegas Aces New York Liberty
2022 Las Vegas Aces Connecticut Sun
2021 Chicago Sky Phoenix Mercury
2020 Seattle Storm Las Vegas Aces
2019 Washington Mystics Connecticut Sun
2018 Seattle Storm Minnesota Lynx
2017 Minnesota Lynx Los Angeles Sparks
2016 Los Angeles Sparks Minnesota Lynx
2015 Minnesota Lynx Indiana Fever
2014 Phoenix Mercury Chicago Sky

Teams with the most WNBA Championships

Minnesota, Houston, and Seattle are tied atop the all-time WNBA Championship tally with four apiece, while three more teams follow closely with three each.

Despite their early dominance, the Comets folded during the 2008 recession and were disbanded when the league was unable to find new ownership. 

Team WNBA Championships WNBA Finals appearances
Minnesota Lynx 4 6
Houston Comets 4 4
Seattle Storm 4 4
Los Angeles Sparks 3 5
Detroit Shock (Dallas Wings) 3 4
Phoenix Mercury 3 4
Las Vegas Aces 2 4

WNBA playoff format

The WNBA playoffs feature the top eight teams based on regular season performance. The playoff format consists of three rounds: the first round, the semifinals, and the WNBA Finals.

First Round: In the first round, the No. 1 seed hosts the No. 8 seed, the No. 2 seed hosts the No. 7 seed, the No. 3 seed hosts the No. 6 seed, and the No. 4 seed hosts the No. 5 seed.  These matchups are best-of-three series, meaning a team must win two games to advance to the next round. The losing team is eliminated from the playoffs.

Semifinals: The semifinals feature a best-of-five series, with the No. 1 seed facing the lowest remaining seed from the first round (either No. 5, No. 7, or No. 8), and the No. 2 seed playing against the other team remaining (either No. 6 or the higher-seeded team from the first round). The teams compete in a best-of-five series, and the first team to win three games advances to the WNBA Finals.

WNBA Finals: The two remaining teams face each other in the WNBA Finals. This is also a best-of-five series, following a similar format as the semifinals. The team with the better regular season record has home-court advantage, hosting Games 1, 2, and 5 (if necessary), while the other team hosts Games 3 and 4 (if necessary).

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