Sunday's 15-game MLB slate brings the curtain down on the 2026 regular season, featuring critical seeding battles, late-season spoiler spots, and massive mispricings across the moneyline market.
Read on for our MLB moneyline predictions and MLB picks for Sunday, Sept. 27
MLB moneyline picks for September 27
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Metsvs  Nationals |
50% |
 Raysvs  Phillies |
50% |
 Astrosvs  Athletics |
57% |
 Dodgersvs  Giants |
74% |
 Redsvs  Blue Jays |
40% |
 Piratesvs  Tigers |
56% |
 Rangersvs  Twins |
48% |
 Bravesvs  Marlins |
54% |
 Guardiansvs  Royals |
58% |
 Rockiesvs  White Sox |
64% |
 Cardinalsvs  Brewers |
70% |
 Cubsvs  Red Sox |
57% |
 Diamondbacksvs  Padres |
48% |
 Angelsvs  Mariners |
40% |
 Oriolesvs  Yankees |
40% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of September 27.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 27
Mets vs Nationals: Mets
Mets win probability: 50%
Sean Manaea gives New York length and keeps traffic off the bases against a Washington lineup that managed just an 88 wRC+ recently. Nationals starter DJ Herz struggles with deep counts and free passes. Back the Mets at even money behind the Mets' steady starting pitching.
Rays vs Phillies: Phillies
Phillies win probability: 50%
Zack Wheeler controls this matchup at Citizens Bank Park, commanding the zone against a Tampa Bay offense batting just .227 over the last fourteen days. Nick Martinez pitches to contact, giving Philadelphia's patient order enough scoring chances to secure the coin-flip home victory.
Astros vs Athletics: Astros
Astros win probability: 57%
Houston's lineup has hammered the baseball late in September, producing a robust .243 isolated power mark and 112 wRC+. Brady Basso does not generate enough swings and misses to survive loud contact. The Astros hold every offensive advantage and finish their series strong.
Dodgers vs Giants: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 74%
San Francisco cannot score runs, scuffling with an anemic .620 OPS and 29 percent strikeout rate down the stretch. The Dodgers boast baseball's most complete bullpen across the past 14 days, carrying a 2.85 SIERA. It's a juicy one, but the Dodgers are the play.
Reds vs Blue Jays: Reds
Reds win probability: 40%
Toronto's moneyline price is inflated on a bullpen walking over four batters every nine innings. Brandon Williamson attacks the zone efficiently, and Cincinnati's aggressive baserunning creates chaos and runs. At 40%, backing the visiting underdogs offers strong mathematical value on game 162.
Pirates vs Tigers: Tigers
Tigers win probability: 56%
Detroit leads baseball over the last two weeks with a 137 wRC+, pairing a .383 on-base percentage with a sharp 3.73 bullpen SIERA. River Ryan gets early run support from a locked-in Detroit lineup, making the Tigers the right side against Pirates starter Jared Jones.
Rangers vs Twins: Twins
Twins win probability: 48%
With both batting orders struggling to find consistency, the bullpen will decide the outcome. Minnesota holds a significant rotation and bullpen edge, pairing a 3.60 SIERA with 9.74 strikeouts per nine. Dean Kremer works deep and delivers the Twins a plus-money home win over the Rangers.
Braves vs Marlins: Braves
Braves win probability: 54%
JR Ritchie faces a limited Miami batting order that lacks extra-base pop. Atlanta's offense has remained steady with a 102 wRC+ over the last fortnight, and their relief corps surrender few free passes. Take the Braves at a very fair road price in South Florida.
Guardians vs Royals: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 58%
Cleveland owns the sharpest mound numbers on the board, backed by a 3.34 SIERA and 19.4 percent strikeout-to-walk margin. Daniel Lynch IV surrenders too many baserunners for a sputtering Royals group. The Guardians take care of business on the road at reasonable chalk.
Rockies vs White Sox: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 64%
Colorado's bullpen continues to bleed runs away from home, posting a 6.63 ERA and allowing 1.74 home runs per nine innings. Chicago's offense has quietly surged to a 113 wRC+. Skip the heavy straight price and back the White Sox.
Cardinals vs Brewers: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 70%
St. Louis is completely flat at the plate, managing an embarrassing 62 wRC+ and .200 batting average over the last fourteen days. Milwaukee's pitchers hold a stingy 3.64 SIERA and limit base runners. The Brewers should cruise comfortably at American Family Field today.
Cubs vs Red Sox: Cubs
Cubs win probability: 57%
Boston's bats have gone completely cold down the stretch, posting a league-worst 75 wRC+ and striking out nearly 25 percent of the time over the past two weeks. Chicago's lineup puts the ball in play consistently and controls the strike zone, giving them a steady road edge.
Diamondbacks vs Padres: Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 48%
Arizona's bats are red-hot, slugging .499 with an elite 129 wRC+ over the past two weeks. San Diego's bullpen has faltered during that same span, posting a 4.46 SIERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Diamondbacks provide high-upside value, catching plus money at Petco Park.
Angels vs Mariners: Angels
Angels win probability: 40%
Logan Gilbert gives Seattle quality innings, but their offense remains vulnerable to dry spells and empty frames. Yusei Kikuchi knows this ballpark well and keeps soft contact on the ground. Take the Angels in what should prove to be a tight contest.
Orioles vs Yankees: Orioles
Orioles win probability: 40%
Shane Baz gives Baltimore live bat-missing ability on the mound, keeping a sluggish Yankees offense guessing. New York is priced like a dominant favorite despite batting just .226 lately. Baltimore at 40% is the premier underdog position on the Sunday board.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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