Best NFL Picks Today

Give me the Lions catching 4.5 points, as I make them closer to a 3-point underdog against the Buffalo Bills on Thursday Night Football. A lot will be made about Detroit's secondary, but it's not like Buffalo's secondary was slowing down the Texans' offense in Week 1. Jared Goff needs a clean pocket to be effective, and I think Penei Sewell is the key to this matchup. Sewell can completely neutralize Bradley Chubb one-on-one, allowing the Lions to shift their protection toward Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. That should give Detroit a better chance to keep Goff's jersey clean without compromising its route numbers.

Our trusted projections expect the Philadelphia Eagles to run the 7th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The Eagles have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better weather in this week's game.. When talking about pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Philadelphia Eagles profiles as the 2nd-best in football last year.. Jalen Hurts has been among the best touchdown throwers in the NFL last year, averaging an exceptional 1.47 per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.. Last year, the porous Tennessee Titans defense has given up a massive 74.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.

The Steelers are built for Unders, and the Patriots lack game-breaking talent on offense with wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) out and running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) still nursing an injury. Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed just 60% of his passes for a pedestrian 5.6 yards per attempt in Week 1, and New England QB Drake Maye’s 5.4 YPA and 6.5 aDoT in the season opener don’t jump off the page, either. The Steelers also allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play, with the Pats surrendering the seventh lowest ahead of Monday Night Football, so we’re landing a fair number on this Under given the lack of offensive explosiveness going against this pair of stout stop units.

While Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murry in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load. Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth-quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters. Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seems slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.

The New York Jets averaged just 17.6 ppg last year and while Geno Smith is an upgrade at quarterback, I'm unconvinced that he's going to improve the situation all that much at age 35. Meanwhile, the Jets defense will get pressure on a one-dimensional Green Bay Packers offense that totaled just 66 yards on the ground against the Vikings. I'm backing the Under down to 42.5 points.

The New Orleans Saints looked dead in the water for the first 30 minutes of the 2026 season. They were 27th in EPA per play in the first half versus Detroit on Sunday before the Lions took their foot off the gas and found themselves in an overtime squeaker. New Orleans’ output looks better than it was, scoring six points in the extra frame (before missing the 2-point convert). The Baltimore Ravens hung 41 points on Indianapolis in Week 1 but took a hit in the receiving corps, losing Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane to injury. This group was already thin and could have Baltimore’s offense short and simple in Week 2. The Ravens ran at the second highest rate in the opener (58%), mainly due to protecting a big lead in the second half. But they could be forced into similar handoffs with the passing game missing pieces.

The Bengals got four takeaways and still had to sweat out the Bucs in Week 1. Houston's defense bounces back and that offense is improved and always strong at home. The Texans were 9 for 18 on 3rd/4th down conversions and went 4/5 for TDs in the red zone. Cincy finished 2/5 in RZ and needed a defensive score and four FGM (two 50+ yarders) to get to 33 points, despite those extra possesions.

Our trusted projections expect the Browns as the 10th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 44.3% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Tampa Bay's unit has been atrocious last year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the league. in the league.

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to run on 39.9% of their downs: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.. When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Denver's group of DTs has been very good last year, profiling as the 10th-best in the NFL.

Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 61.4 total plays in this game: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.. The Las Vegas Raiders have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 52.8 plays per game.. Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Los Angeles Chargers, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 29.2 per game) last year.. When talking about pass protection (and the importance it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Raiders grades out as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year.. The Chargers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (74.9%) vs. running backs last year (74.9%).

The Seahawks will be starting backup QB Drew Lock this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.. Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by our trusted projection set to see just 124.1 offensive plays called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.. The Seattle Seahawks have run the 5th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.. The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.. As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in run defense, Arizona's group of DTs has been very good last year, ranking as the best in football.

An extreme throwing game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a giant -13.5-point underdog in this game.. The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 8th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) last year.. Malik Willis has been one of the most on-target quarterbacks in football last year with a fantastic 86.6% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 99th percentile.. Opposing offenses have thrown for the 10th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (227.0 per game) against the 49ers defense last year.. Last year, the porous San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed the most yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a monstrous 0.00 YAC.

At the moment, the 10th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (38.4% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Dallas Cowboys.. The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop-off.

This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the Chiefs, who are favored by 6.5 points.. Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run on 46.0% of their downs: the 7th-highest rate on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to run the 3rd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. This week, Kenneth Walker III is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 97th percentile among RBs with 19.9 carries.. Kenneth Walker III has picked up 52.0 adjusted rushing yards per game last year, one of the largest marks in football among running backs (87th percentile).

Sean McVay is an excellent game planner with added time he'll work out the kinks on this offense. Matthew Stafford couldn’t get going against the 49ers but faces a softer stop unit from the Giants. New York’s defense looked much better than it truly was in Week 1, due to the offense grinding out gains and chewing up TOP. The Cowboys offense only had two second half possessions and while it was limited in action, Dallas ranked out well in terms of advanced metrics like EPA per play DVOA. This is a fast track indoor at SoFi Stadium and it doesn’t seem likely that L.A.’s offense gets bottled up for a second straight game.