The Kyler Murray era is on pause as the Minnesota Vikings’ new quarterback recovers from a concussion suffered early in his Week 1 debut.
His status for Week 2’s road game against the Chicago Bears is unknown, which has the point spread hovering short of a key number.
With Carson Wentz possibly under center for Minnesota, I give my early Vikings at Bears predictions and NFL picks for Sept. 20.
Vikings vs Bears predictions
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Early Vikings vs Bears spread pick: Bears -5.5
The look-ahead spread was Bears -3.5 before the events of Week 1.
The Chicago Bears won a shootout with Carolina while the Minnesota Vikings overcame Kyler Murray’s injury with a late push to knock off rival Green Bay.
While Carson Wentz was serviceable, I see more than two points separating him and Murray in terms of value to the spread. That’s especially true if the Bears can break away on the scoreboard and force Wentz to carry the load.
Minnesota’s defense is dangerous but gave up a ton of yards to the Packers. If we take the Cheeseheads’ fourth quarter collapse out of the equation, the Vikes stop unit was 21st in EPA allowed per play in the first three quarters.
Murray’s chances of clearing concussion protocols seem slim when you look at his reaction to the hit. Once he’s officially ruled out, this spread jumps to Bears -6 or higher. Give me Chicago below the key number now.
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Early Vikings vs Bears total pick: Under 49.5
You’re asking Chicago to do the heavy lifting with a total this high. This number seems like an overreaction to the Week 1 onslaught at Carolina, in which the Bears blasted the Panthers for 552 yards and 59 points.
Minnesota’s defense will rally with the QB1 out, and Brian Flores is going to make Caleb Williams very uncomfortable, bringing blitz at a high rate. That pressure won’t allow for deeper plays to develop, and Williams will rely more on quicker hits to move the chains.
A Wentz-led attack for the Vikings is dumbed down from what head coach Kevin O’Connell had in mind for the mobile Murray. Minnesota was forced to go run-heavy in Week 1, handing off at the second-highest rate (55.74%) – a drastic change to O’Connell’s schemes that ran just 43% of the time in 2025.
Given the growing spread, game script says Chicago could get up early and look to slow things down and run out the clock in the second half. I’m leaning Under 49.5 O/U.
Vikings vs Bears odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Vikings vs Bears spread: Bears -5.5
- Vikings vs Bears moneyline: Vikings 31%, Bears 69%
- Vikings vs Bears Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Vikings vs Bears
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Chicago, Illinois
- Venue: Soldier Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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