The New England Patriots are home favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers ahead of their 1 p.m. ET kickoff at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 20.
My early Steelers vs. Patriots predictions and NFL picks expect Pittsburgh to cover the number in a low-scoring game.
Steelers vs Patriots predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Steelers vs Patriots spread pick: Steelers +5.5
The New England Patriots lack game-breaking talent on offense, with wide receiver A.J. Brown (ankle) out and running back TreVeyon Henderson (ankle) still nursing an injury.
It was on full display in Week 1, too, with quarterback Drake Maye throwing for just 5.4 yards per attempt and a 6.5 aDoT.
So, with the Pittsburgh Steelers sending out a capable, experienced, and versatile defense, I’m happy to take the points in what I forecast to be a low-scoring game.
Pittsburgh QB Aaron Rodgers didn’t have a turnover-worthy play while airing it out for a 10.1 aDoT, so I’m confident he can keep the Steelers in striking distance in Week 2.
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Early Steelers vs Patriots total pick: Under 42.5
The Steelers aren’t built for high-scoring games, and neither is the Patriots' current roster construction.
Additionally, even if both teams faced backup quarterbacks in Week 1, their stout defenses stood out. Pittsburgh allowed the fourth-lowest EPA per play, and New England surrendered the seventh-lowest mark ahead of Monday Night Football.
Finally, while Rodgers passed the Week 1 test with a win, he still completed just 60% of his passes for a pedestrian 5.6 YPA.
Steelers vs Patriots odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Steelers vs Patriots spread: Patriots -5.5
- Steelers vs Patriots moneyline: Steelers 33%, Patriots 66%
- Steelers vs Patriots Over/Under: 42.5
How to watch Steelers vs Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, 1 p.m. ET
- City: Foxborough, Mass.
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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