Missouri State 6th Conference USA0-0

Texas A&M 14th SEC0-0

7:00PM ET 7:00PM ET · Sep 05, 2026

Missouri State vs Texas A&M Picks & Props

MOSU vs TAM Picks

NCAAF Picks

Spread

TAM -41.5 (-118)

Best Odds

-40.5 -110

Pick made: 19 hours ago

-40.5 -118

-40.5 -110

-40.5 -111

-40.5 -113

-40.5 -110

-40.5 -115

The Texas A&M Aggies bring back starting quarterback Marcel Reed and boast a deep wide receiver corps including Mario Craver, Ashton Bethel-Roman, and Isaiah Horton. This offense put up 33.8 ppg last year and will be able to name its score against a Missouri State Bears team that is adjusting to a new head coach in Casey Woods, along with a new defensive coordinator. I'm backing Texas A&M to cover at up to 42.5 points.

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Total

o53.5 (-111)

Best Odds

o53.5 -110

Pick made: 19 hours ago

o53.5 -112

o53.5 -110

o53.5 -112

o53.5 -110

o53.5 -114

o53.5 -110

Under Casey Woods, the Missouri State Bears will likely push the tempo, just as Woods did when he was the offensive coordinator with the SMU Mustangs. That won't necessarily translate to a ton of success against the Texas A&M Aggies, but it will keep the scoreboard busy. I like the Over at up to 54.5 points.

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3 LEG PARLAY

TAM -41.5

Spread

o53.5

Total

o6.5 Team Total

Game Prop

Bet now

+341

Pick made: 19 hours ago

The Bears have brought in former UTEP Miners quarterback Skyler Locklear to run the offense. He offers a dual-threat look, and while he's been vulnerable to throwing interceptions, he also pushes the ball deep, with 23 touchdowns and 17 picks over 16 games as a starter. Will that approach work often against the Aggies? Unlikely. But Locklear only needs to connect once to get Missouri State Over its total of 6.5 points. That combines well with the Over, while I still don't expect the Bears to score nearly enough to stop the Aggies from covering.

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Passing Yards

Marcel Reed o259.5 Passing Yards (-104)

Projection 303.4695 (Over)

Best Odds

o252.5 -115

Pick made: 20 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o252.5 -115

o259.5 -104

Rushing Yards

Marcel Reed o38.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Projection 51.1847 (Over)

Best Odds

o38.5 -115

Pick made: 17 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o38.5 -115

o39.5 -113

Receiving Yards

Mario Craver o59.5 Receiving Yards (+102)

Projection 88.4662 (Over)

Best Odds

o54.5 -115

Pick made: 4 hours ago

EV Model Rating

o54.5 -115

o59.5 +102

Spread

54% picking Missouri State

54% 54%

46% 46%

Total Picks MOSU 153, TAM 132

Spread

MOSU

TAM

Spread

+40.5 -105

-40.5 -110

Total

46% picking Missouri State vs Texas A&M to go Under

54% 54%

46% 46%

Total PicksMOSU 98, TAM 84

Total

Over

Under

Total

53.5 -110

53.5 -105

MOSU vs TAM Props

GAME & PLAYER PROPS	PROJECTIONS				ANALYSIS	BEST ODDS
SPREAD MOSU +40.5 spread 39.38 PROJECTION -1.1 DIFFERENCE 4.21% EV Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5 Best odds Hard Rock Bet Best Odds +40.5 -105 +40.5 -110 +40.5 -110 +40.5 -110 +40.5 -110 +40.5 -110 +40.5 -111 +40.5 -107 +40.5 -110 +40.5 -105 MOSU +40.5 spread PROJECTION 39.38 PROJECTION -1.1 DIFFERENCE 4.21% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. +40.5 -105
TOTAL Over 53.5 Total 54.38 OVER PROJECTION +0.9 DIFFERENCE 2.55% EV Rating: Star rating: 2 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o53.5 -110 o53.5 -112 o53.5 -110 o53.5 -112 o53.5 -110 o53.5 -110 o53.5 -114 o53.5 -110 o53.5 -110 o53.5 -110 Over 53.5 Total PROJECTION 54.38 OVER PROJECTION +0.9 DIFFERENCE 2.55% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o53.5 -110
PASSING YARDS TAM M. Reed (QB) o259.5 Passing Yards 303.47 OVER PROJECTION +44.0 DIFFERENCE 26.85% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o252.5 -115 - o252.5 -115 o259.5 -104 - - - - - - TAM M. Reed (QB) o259.5 Passing Yards PROJECTION 303.47 OVER PROJECTION +44.0 DIFFERENCE 26.85% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o252.5 -115
RUSHING YARDS TAM M. Reed (QB) o38.5 Rushing Yards 51.18 OVER PROJECTION +12.7 DIFFERENCE 25.72% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o38.5 -115 - o38.5 -115 o39.5 -113 - - - - - - TAM M. Reed (QB) o38.5 Rushing Yards PROJECTION 51.18 OVER PROJECTION +12.7 DIFFERENCE 25.72% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o38.5 -115
RECEIVING YARDS TAM M. Craver (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards 88.47 OVER PROJECTION +29.0 DIFFERENCE 27.2% EV Rating: Star rating: 5 out of 5 Best odds bet365 Best Odds o54.5 -115 - o54.5 -115 o59.5 +102 - - - - - - TAM M. Craver (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards PROJECTION 88.47 OVER PROJECTION +29.0 DIFFERENCE 27.2% EV ANALYSIS There is no analysis available at the moment. Please check back later. o54.5 -115

SPREAD

MOSU +40.5 spread

39.38 PROJECTION

-1.1 DIFFERENCE

4.21% EV

Rating:

+40.5 -105

+40.5 -110

+40.5 -111

+40.5 -107

+40.5 -110

+40.5 -105

TOTAL

Over 53.5 Total

54.38 OVER PROJECTION

+0.9 DIFFERENCE

2.55% EV

Rating:

o53.5 -110

o53.5 -112

o53.5 -110

o53.5 -112

o53.5 -110

o53.5 -114

o53.5 -110

PASSING YARDS

TAM

M. Reed (QB) o259.5 Passing Yards

303.47 OVER PROJECTION

+44.0 DIFFERENCE

26.85% EV

Rating:

o252.5 -115

o259.5 -104

RUSHING YARDS

TAM

M. Reed (QB) o38.5 Rushing Yards

51.18 OVER PROJECTION

+12.7 DIFFERENCE

25.72% EV

Rating:

o38.5 -115

o39.5 -113

RECEIVING YARDS

TAM

M. Craver (WR) o59.5 Receiving Yards

88.47 OVER PROJECTION

+29.0 DIFFERENCE

27.2% EV

Rating:

o54.5 -115

o59.5 +102

Recent Form Trends

Over is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games overall.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games as a road favorite.
Over is 9-1 in Aggies last 10 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-0 in Bears last 4 games in September.
Bears are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Aggies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 13-6 in Aggies last 19 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 games as a favorite.

ROI Trends

Missouri State Trends

Missouri State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+4.75 Units / 70% ROI)

Missouri State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

Compare odds

Missouri State has hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 86% ROI)

Missouri State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.43 Units / 17% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

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Missouri State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

MOSU

TAM

Game Line - Spread - FT

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Missouri State has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 13 games (-5.45 Units / -28% ROI)

MOSU

TAM

Game Line - Moneyline - 1H

Compare odds

Missouri State have only covered the 1Q Spread in 1 of their last 6 games (-4.75 Units / -68% ROI)

MOSU

TAM

Game Line - Spread - 1Q

Compare odds

Missouri State has only hit the Team Total Under in 1 of their last 6 games (-4.60 Units / -67% ROI)

Missouri State has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 12 games (-3.80 Units / -28% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

Missouri State has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 10 games (-2.90 Units / -25% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

Texas A&M Trends

Texas A&M has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - FT

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Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 90% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.25 Units / 51% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

Texas A&M has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 7 games at home (-5.80 Units / -73% ROI)

Texas A&M has only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 5 games at home (-5.70 Units / -1% ROI)

MOSU

TAM

Game Line - Moneyline - 1Q

Compare odds

Texas A&M have only covered the Spread in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-4.60 Units / -52% ROI)

MOSU

TAM

Game Line - Spread - FT

Compare odds

Texas A&M has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 1 of their last 5 games (-3.53 Units / -62% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1H

Compare odds

Texas A&M has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 1 of their last 4 games at home (-2.89 Units / -54% ROI)

Over

Under

Game Line - Total - 1Q

Compare odds

There are no User Picks for this match up at the moment. Visit our Team Leaders to see all User picks.

Missouri State Team Leaders

Rank	Leader	L10	Units
All Bears Money Leaders

Texas A&M Team Leaders

Rank	Leader	L10	Units
All Aggies Money Leaders

Top User Picks

Missouri State vs Texas A&M Picks & Props

MOSU vs TAM Picks

MOSU vs TAM Consensus Picks

Consensus Picks

54% picking Missouri State

46% picking Missouri State vs Texas A&M to go Under

MOSU vs TAM Props

How is Value calculated?

Recent Form Trends

ROI Trends

Missouri State Trends

Missouri State has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+4.75 Units / 70% ROI)

Missouri State has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Missouri State has hit the Team Total Over in their last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 86% ROI)

Missouri State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.43 Units / 17% ROI)

Missouri State have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

Missouri State has only hit the 1H Moneyline in 3 of their last 13 games (-5.45 Units / -28% ROI)

Missouri State have only covered the 1Q Spread in 1 of their last 6 games (-4.75 Units / -68% ROI)

Missouri State has only hit the Team Total Under in 1 of their last 6 games (-4.60 Units / -67% ROI)

Missouri State has only hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 12 games (-3.80 Units / -28% ROI)

Missouri State has only hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 10 games (-2.90 Units / -25% ROI)

Texas A&M Trends

Texas A&M has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.20 Units / 8% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the Game Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the 1H Game Total Under in their last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 90% ROI)

Texas A&M has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+2.25 Units / 51% ROI)

Texas A&M has only hit the Team Total Over in 1 of their last 7 games at home (-5.80 Units / -73% ROI)

Texas A&M has only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 1 of their last 5 games at home (-5.70 Units / -1% ROI)

Texas A&M have only covered the Spread in 2 of their last 8 games at home (-4.60 Units / -52% ROI)

Texas A&M has only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 1 of their last 5 games (-3.53 Units / -62% ROI)

Texas A&M has only hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 1 of their last 4 games at home (-2.89 Units / -54% ROI)

MOSU vs TAM Top User Picks

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