In ACC After Dark action, Stanford hosts NC State at Stanford Stadium in Stanford, Calif., on Friday at 10:30 p.m. ET (ESPN).
The Wolfpack are 6.5-point road favorites, and my NC State vs. Stanford prediction and college football picks expect CJ Bailey to pick apart one of the Power Four's worst defenses.
TOP PICK
Who will win NC State vs Stanford: NC State -6.5
Stanford has been completely uncompetitive in four of its last five FBS games and is 1-5 ATS since the start of September. While NC State isn't a powerhouse, the Wolfpack have enough offense to cover up to -8.5 on the road.
The Cardinal have lost four of their last five FBS games by at least 28 points and scored seven or fewer in all four (they were outscored 115-10 in their last two FBS games). With a defense that's ranked 127th in success rate (50.1%), Stanford's offense won't be able to keep up with the Wolfpack.
NC State has scored 31+ points in three of its last four FBS games, all against defenses ranked higher by SP+ than Stanford's (111th). Plus, the Wolfpack are coming off a bye week and should be well rested for the West Coast trip.
COVERS INTEL: Stanford's defense is among the worst in college football, ranking 134th in early-down EPA per play and 137th in third/fourth down success rate (57.8%).
NC State vs Stanford Over/Under pick: Over 55.5
NC State and Stanford have struggling defenses, which have helped them consistently hit the Over this season. The Wolfpack and Cardinal are a combined 9-4 to the Over, and I like it to hit at 55.5 or better.
Stanford's defense has the lowest havoc rate in the ACC (11.3%) and is allowing the second-most yards per game in the Power Four (452). NC State's defense isn't all that much better, though, ranking 124th in net EPA per play and 133rd in EPA per pass.
These two defenses bend and break, ranking the worst in the conference in points per opportunity on defense, though Stanford (5.06) is significantly worse than NC State (3.94).
NC State vs Stanford prop: NC State TT Over 31.5
After a shaky start to the year, CJ Bailey has been far more impressive in his last few starts. He's put up a 72+ QBR in four of the Wolfpack's last five games and should continue to play well enough for NC State to hit its team total Over at 32.5 or better.
In his last three outings, he's finished with an adjusted completion percentage of 77.1% or higher while accounting for just two turnover-worthy plays. His efficiency has helped the Wolfpack climb to 37th nationally in pass success rate (47.6%), which doesn't bode well for Stanford.
The Cardinal allow the eighth-most passing yards per game in the Power Four (255.4) and are the only P4 program with fewer than five sacks and five interceptions this season.
NC State vs Stanford combo
Stanford is one of the worst teams in college football, and it doesn't look like Andrew Luck and Tavita Pritchard will be turning things around anytime soon.
Though Davis Warren has been efficient at QB, the Cardinal have a dreadful defense that ranks outside the top 115 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, and available yards percentage (57.3%).
Even against an NC State defense giving up 27.7 points per game, Stanford won't be able to keep this close at home against David Doeren's team. The Wolfpack's passing game will be too much, and I have NC State winning 33-24.
NC State vs Stanford combo
- NC State -6.5
- Over 55.5
- NC State first half -3.5
- Top picks: 15-11, +2.41 units
- Combos: 7-19, +1.47 units
NC State vs Stanford odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: NC State -6.5 | Stanford +6.5
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (50%) | Under 55.5 (50%)
- Moneyline: NC State 69% | Stanford 31%
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NC State vs Stanford weather
Weather is expected to be a non-factor at Stanford Stadium on Friday night.
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NC State vs Stanford trend to know
The Over is 5-1 in Stanford's last six games as an underdog. Find more college football betting trends for NC State vs. Stanford.
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How to watch NC State vs Stanford
| Location | Stanford Stadium, Stanford, Calif. |
| Date | Friday, Oct. 23, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
NC State vs Stanford latest injuries
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