Indiana @ Oregon Picks & Props

Dan Lanning has a penchant for exaggeration in his locker room. It serves him well, creating a chip on his team's shoulder even against opponents like Colorado and Oklahoma State. Those moments usually emphasize the first half. Against Indiana and Curt Cignetti, that chip may be necessary, given Cignetti's penchant for a solid script to open the game.

Both of these defenses rank in the Top 10 in quality drive rate allowed, and also rank Top 10 in available yards allowed. And they each rank in the Top 25 in early down success rate. 

I see this as a game where Oregon struggles again to reach 30 points. But even if the Ducks do so, they’ll hold Indiana closer to 20 as part of covering. That will allow us to benefit from the rising total to stay under the number. 

The Ducks have gotten two weeks to recover from that thrilling win over Penn State, and Dante Moore showed immense poise against the Nittany Lions and that raucous atmosphere. Now it’s his turn to have his fans behind him, and I’m not sure Indiana will be up for the task after the cross-country trip.

Indiana has had a week off after a close win at Iowa, but there were warning signs in that contest. Iowa's anemic offense had decent success, and the Hoosiers might not have won had Iowa's quarterback not gotten hurt.

Iowa had a havoc rate of 15% on defense, vastly outperforming the 9% mark it had coming into that game. Oregon will do enough defensively to cover the spread, which has dropped down to -8.5 after it opened as a double-digit favorite.