MLB Picks

Fedde has allowed a .322 average and .400 wOBA over his last five starts, the worst marks among any pitcher on today’s slate. Holmes has conceded multiple runs against all five opponents who rank Top-20 in OPS vs. righties, and the Sox sit ninth. Expect plenty of offense. Playable to -130.

Kauffman Stadium might not be the best home run park in baseball, but 15-mph winds blowing out to left-center and temperatures pushing 90 degrees create a great environment for dingers today. The Rangers have the better side of the matchup against Stephen Kolek, who generates plenty of groundballs, but when hitters do get the ball in the air against him, it tends to leave the yard. He's also making his first start after returning from the family medical emergency list. Josh Jung at +500 or better is my favorite way to attack this spot. He ranks among the team's Top 3 hitters in power metrics and has recorded a hit in 16 of his last 18 games while posting a .930 OPS. He also just faced Kansas City three series ago and responded with three extra-base hits while slugging .786 during the matchup. The Royals bullpen adds to the appeal, ranking in the bottom third of baseball in HR/9.

I want a bat for the Cubs in Colorado today with 15-mph winds blowing out to right field and temperatures pushing near 90 degrees. It’s also a spot where Tomoyuki Sugano looks vulnerable, carrying a 7.58 xERA that sits well above his sub-4.00 surface ERA. This was a pitcher who had one of the worst HR/FB rates in baseball last season. Seiya Suzuki at +390 projects as one of the top +EV home run options in this game, with a fair price closer to +300. He is part of a small group of Chicago hitters who have been swinging it well over the last two weeks, and he stands out with a price 150 points better than the others. Even if Sugano manages to limit damage, the Colorado bullpen has been horrendous, posting a 10.20 ERA and 2.08 HR/9 over the last 14 days. Everyone might be looking at Sacramento for dingers today, but the better value is in Colorado.

The Cincinnati Reds are trading as -119 favorites on the moneyline, but with Chase Burns on the bump, I price the Reds closer to -145. That's why I'm hitting the button in this spot. The best way to disrupt the Padres' offense is by neutralizing the right-handed bats of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and Burns' pitching profile is a nightmare matchup for both hitters. His ability to work a high-spin slider that breaks away from Machado and Tatis, off a riding fastball that runs in on their hands, should leave these right-handed bats playing more defense than offense with their swings. If you can limit the power and damage that Tatis and Machado are capable of producing, you're in a good position to pick up a victory against the Padres.

Yes, the elevation is a concern, and I watched the offensive explosion last night just like everyone else. That said, I think the market is overreacting, creating value on a scoreless first inning at +150. Milwaukee's Robert Gasser has limited hard contact early this season, holding opponents to a .192 xBA and .335 xSLG. On the other side, J.T. Ginn has been outstanding, posting a 1.59 ERA over his last five starts and a 1.64 first-inning ERA this season. The ballpark will scare people away, but good pitching still wins innings. At this price, the value is too good to ignore.

Seth Lugo has dominated Texas hitters throughout his career, holding Rangers batters to a .141 batting average across 85 at-bats. Texas ranks just 25th in runs scored per game, while Kansas City is even lower at 27th. With two below-average offenses and the pitcher-friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium, expect runs to be at a premium.