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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 22, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.91 |
+130 
|
o8.0 -115 
|
+1.5 -160 
|
|
4.08 |
-145 
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +142
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Kents last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Andres Chaparro o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+150)
o1.5+160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.86 |
+120
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
4.38 |
-135
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +159
|
Milwaukee
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Brewers last 8 games as an underdog.
- Brewers are 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Wheelers last 4 starts on grass.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Wheelers last 4 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
o0.5+196
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.77 |
+145
|
o7.0 -115
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
3.97 |
-169
|
u7.5 -129
|
-1.5 +140 
|
St. Louis
- Cardinals are 6-0 in Pallantes last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Pallantes last 4 starts as a favorite.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+230
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.68 |
+108
|
o6.0 -115
|
+1.5 -210
|
|
3.72 |
-118
|
u6.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +185
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-0 in Messicks last 5 starts as a road underdog.
Boston
- Under is 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 7-0 in Red Sox last 7 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Tolles last 5 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
o0.5+231
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2.99 |
+116
|
o5.5 -141
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
3.90 |
-130
|
u6.5 -125
|
-1.5 +176
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Rays are 5-0 in Rasmussens last 5 road starts.
- Rays are 4-0 in Rasmussens last 4 starts on grass.
NY Yankees
- Over is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Yankees are 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Top Projection
Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+283)
o0.5+283
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.86 |
+200
|
o9.0 -129
|
+1.5 -103
|
|
5.29 |
-185
|
u9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +110
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 5-0 in Williamsons last 5 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-0 in Reds last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Williamsons last 4 starts as a road underdog.
Atlanta
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Braves last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Braves last 9 overall.
Top Projection
Matt McLain o1.5 Total Bases (+275)
o1.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.53 |
-117
|
o7.5 -120 
|
-1.5 +146
|
|
4.16 |
+104
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -164
|
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 5-0 in Kays last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 6-0 in Kays last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in White Sox last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 5-0 in White Sox last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts vs. American League Central.
- Royals are 4-0 in Lynch IVs last 4 starts as an underdog.
Top Projection
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
u0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.14 |
+174
|
o6.5 -115
|
+1.5 -127
|
|
3.73 |
-200
|
u6.5 +100
|
-1.5 +115
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 7-1 in Junks last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games following a win.
Top Projection
Otto Lopez o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.25 |
+110
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.39 |
-125
|
u8.5 -128
|
-1.5 +165
|
NY Mets
- Over is 5-0 in Manaeas last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Manaeas last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Texas
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts as a favorite.
- Rangers are 6-0 in Gores last 6 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Rangers are 7-0 in Gores last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
o0.5+169
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.00 |
-190
|
o10.5 -125 
|
-1.5 -120
|
|
4.99 |
+170
|
u11.0 -115
|
+1.5 +105
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 6-0 in Sorokas last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Sorokas last 5 starts during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-125)
o2.5-125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.04 |
+120
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -179
|
|
4.42 |
-130
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +155
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Javiers last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 4-0 in Javiers last 4 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Seattle
- Mariners are 4-0 in Gilberts last 4 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Gilberts last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Mariners last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Top Projection
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+135
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.44 |
-107
|
o9.0 -139
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
5.09 |
-105
|
u9.5 -115
|
-1.5 +180
|
LA Angels
- Under is 6-0 in Kikuchis last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Angels last 5 games following a loss.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kikuchis last 4 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Athletics
- Under is 4-0 in Bassos last 4 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 10-1 in last 11 vs. American League West.
- Over is 6-1 in last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Jonah Heim o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
o0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.43 |
-130
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
3.32 |
+115
|
u8.0 -143
|
+1.5 -150
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Bradleys last 6 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Bradleys last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Giants last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Luke Keaschall o0.5 Total RBIs (+239)
o0.5+239
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.55 |
+112
|
o8.0 -134
|
+2.5 -295
|
|
5.01 |
-125
|
u8.5 -112
|
-2.5 +235
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Padres are 6-0 in their last 6 during game 1 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 during game 1 of a series.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
o0.5+210
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.59 |
+160
|
o7.5 -110
|
+1.5 -135
|
|
|
3.75 |
-185
|
u8.5 -142
|
-1.5 +130
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+102
|
-- |
-- |
|
4.33 |
-120
|
-- |
-- |
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Bassitts last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.44 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
3.22 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 7-2 in Twins last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.10 |
-135
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
|
3.98 |
+120
|
u7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -145
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Nolas last 7 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.30 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.17 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Liberatores last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.76 |
+120
|
o6.5 -148
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
|
4.14 |
-139
|
u7.0 -110
|
-1.5 +164
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.81 |
+120
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -185
|
|
|
3.78 |
-134
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 +168
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.86 |
+210
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -105
|
|
|
4.85 |
-245
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -112
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Reds last 7 overall.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 road games.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.79 |
-113
|
o8.5 -115
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
|
4.89 |
+100
|
u8.5 +100
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.79 |
+150
|
o6.5 -139
|
+1.5 -145
|
|
|
4.63 |
-176
|
u7.0 -110
|
-1.5 +130
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Gustos last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
WAS
@
DET
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Andres Chaparro o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Andres Chaparro is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Comerica Park sits at the 9th-highest altitude in the majors. High elevation often leads to better offense.. In the past two weeks, Andres Chaparro's 26.7% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.8%.. Andres Chaparro has performed at a clip of 27.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 86th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs
Kevin McGonigle o0.5 Total RBIs (+183)
Projection 0.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kevin McGonigle in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Kevin McGonigle is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Comerica Park has the 3rd-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. Kevin McGonigle will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Kevin McGonigle has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.4-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal figure of 92.5-mph.
MIL
@
PHI
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total Home Runs (+589)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Harper has a single homer across his past 22 games despite a solid 25-for-85 run at the dish, and he also paces Philly with an elite .298 ISO against righties. This is also a favorable matchup with Milwaukee starter Dustin May struggling to the tune of a 6.91 xERA while allowing a healthy 36.7% hard-hit rate to leeft-handed hitters across his past six starts.
Total
o7.5 (+110)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 7.5 is in play to 55% because while Philly starter Zack Wheeler has been exceptional (2.63 xERA and 3.30 xFIP across his past four starts), the Brewers also send a well-rounded lineup to the plate. Milwaukee is second in the majors in wOBA against righties for the season, and the Brew Crew also rank second in overall wOBA and seventh in xwOBA over the past 30 days. So, with Brewers righty Dustin May sporting a 6.91 xERA and 4.42 xFIP across his last six outings, I expect the Philadelphia offense to do the heavy lifting while Milwaukee chips in enough runs to send this total Over the number tonight.
STL
@
PIT
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jordan Walker o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. PNC Park projects as the #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams today.. In the past week, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.3% up to 33.3%.
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jordan Walker o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+124)
Projection 1.85
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Jordan Walker is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. PNC Park projects as the #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams today.. In the past week, Jordan Walker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 13.3% up to 33.3%.
CLE
@
BOS
Tue, Sep 22 • 6:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jo Adell o0.5 Total Home Runs (+465)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jo Adell draws a favorable matchup against Red Sox southpaw Payton Tolle, who has struggled against right-handed hitters of late despite his strong overall results. Over the last 60 right-handed bats Boston has faced, hitters are making 50% hard contact with a 28.9% ground-ball rate, while posting a .349 xBA and .633 xSLG. Adell has been crushing left-handed pitching all season and has taken things up another notch over his last 60 at-bats. During that span, he owns a .712 SLG, .347 ISO and 17.1% barrel rate while consistently keeping the ball elevated. Take this down to 20%.
Total Home Runs
Wilyer Abreu o0.5 Total Home Runs (+675)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Wilyer Abreu's ISO sits at .190 facing southpaws but spikes to .267 when isolating the fastball-sinker combination that Parker Messick relies on so heavily.
His strikeout rate sits at just 13.2% against those two pitches, which is below his barrel rate of 14.5%. It’s always a good sign when you’re making elite contact more frequently than punching out.
TB
@
NYY
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:05 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Max Fried o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+140)
Projection 5.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Max Fried in the 78th percentile among all SPs in the majors.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Max Fried to throw 99 pitches in today's outing (most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Austin Wells, the Yankees's expected catcher today, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense.. Max Fried has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed bats in today's game.
Total RBIs
Ryan McMahon o0.5 Total RBIs (+414)
Projection 0.31
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest fences among all major league stadiums.. Ryan McMahon will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today's matchup.. The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan McMahon has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ryan McMahon will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Ryan McMahon has been unlucky this year, compiling a .273 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .299 — a .026 gap.
CIN
@
ATL
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Ronald Acuna Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+319)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Acuna will have the early advantage on Williamson, and likely will get two ABs against the lefty before facing the poor Reds' bullpen. Acuna is also mashing in September, with a 25.9% HR/FB rate, 41.7% hard%, and a .356 ISO—ranked eighth among all hitters this month.
Total
o9.5 (+103)
Jason Ence
Betting Analyst
Playable to 49%, I am expecting a high-scoring affair.
The Braves turn to JR Ritchie, whose erratic command has led to a walk rate in the fourth percentile this year, and a 7.15 FIP since the break.
Cincy's pen the past two weeks ranks 29th in HR/9 (2.31), 28th in FIP (5.75), and 25th in hard% (36.1%).
CHW
@
KC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Tommy Pham u1.5 Total Bases (-193)
Projection 0.77
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When starting against a left-handed starter since the start of last season, Tommy Pham has been pinch hit for 10% of the time.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 5th-best of the day for mound aces.. Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. Tommy Pham will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.
Total Hits
Randal Grichuk u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
This year, Randal Grichuk has been pulled from the game early in 58% of his appearances when starting against left-handed starter.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 5th-best of the day for mound aces.. In today's matchup, Randal Grichuk is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (77th percentile).. Out of every team playing today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Kansas City Royals.. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Randal Grichuk in today's game.
MIA
@
CHC
Tue, Sep 22 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Ian Happ u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
In the majors, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The weather forecast forecasts the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers.. Today, Ian Happ is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.7% rate (90th percentile).. Sporting a .221 batting average this year, Ian Happ has performed in the 15th percentile.
Total Hits
Seiya Suzuki u0.5 Total Hits (+160)
Projection 0.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The weather forecast forecasts the 4th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this game, the best of the day for pitchers.. Janson Junk will have the handedness advantage over Seiya Suzuki today.. Over the last week, Seiya Suzuki's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.4% down to 0%.
NYM
@
TEX
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:05 PM ET
Hits+Runs+RBIs
Jake Burger o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-105)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Jake Burger finds himself in a feast spot against Mets southpaw Sean Manaea, who has posted a near-17% barrel rate across his last five starts. Burger, meanwhile, has been torching left-handers, generating a 60% hard-hit rate and 35% barrel rate against the last 60 he has faced, along with a .731 SLG and .462 ISO. Manaea has also struggled to limit hard contact from right-handed hitters, allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and 13.6% barrel rate over his last 30. With Burger crushing southpaws and Manaea allowing plenty of hard contact, the Rangers slugger has a strong chance to leave the yard.
Walks Allowed
MacKenzie Gore o1.5 Walks Allowed (-143)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
MacKenzie Gore has struggled to find the zone recently, making his walks prop worth a look against the Mets. The Rangers left-hander owns a near 17% walk rate over his last five starts and has allowed at least three walks in five straight outings. New York has also been drawing walks at a strong clip against left-handed pitching, with seven hitters posting at least a 10% walk rate over their last 60 at-bats against southpaws. Gore could be on a short leash because of his command issues, but that also creates a path for this prop to cash early. I’m willing to play it up to -145.
AZ
@
COL
Tue, Sep 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Earned Runs Allowed
Kyle Freeland o2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-151)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
Kyle Freeland has struggled at home this season, allowing 3.5 runs per outing while carrying the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box’s current-season dataset. Now, he faces an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup featuring six elite-rated hitters and one with a strong rating. Arizona also owns the highest-rated lineup on today’s slate and enters this matchup swinging a hot bat, posting a 115 wRC+, .775 OPS and .341 wOBA over its last 12 games. With teams averaging roughly three runs through the first five innings and Colorado allowing well over three at home, the over 2.5 first-five runs stands out as the preferred number.
Total RBIs
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+182)
Projection 0.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #1 stadium in the majors for boosting offensive stats, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Coors Field.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which often leads to better offense.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions of all games today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for batters.
HOU
@
SEA
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Yordan Alvarez o0.5 Total Home Runs (+257)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
We can finally trust the big fella once again, as Yordan Alvarez draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert. The Houston Astros slugger owns a .559 SLG, .265 ISO, 57%+ hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate over his last 10 games. Alvarez also enters Tuesday with an elite rating on Batters-Box and covers 100% of Gilbert’s pitch mix. Among 63 elite ratings this season, Alvarez has gone yard 22.22% of the time. Meanwhile, Gilbert’s last 30 left-handed hitters have posted a 52%+ hard-hit rate, 10.5% barrel rate, .460 xBA and .669 xSLG. Take this up to 30%.
Total Home Runs
Cal Raleigh o0.5 Total Home Runs (+300)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Cal Raleigh is back and better than ever. Okay, maybe not ever – but he’s back!
Raleigh has hammered the fastball-sweeper combination over the last 25 games, posting a ridiculous .478 ISO and 35.7% barrel rate.
Raleigh only has seven career at-bats against Cristian Javier but hit safely in three of them, with one leaving the park.
LAA
@
ATH
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Jonah Heim o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.67
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jonah Heim is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game.. Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Jonah Heim will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Yusei Kikuchi in this game.
Total Bases
Oswald Peraza o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sutter Health Park profiles as the #1 ballpark in the majors for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In the league, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report forecasts the hottest weather on the slate today at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that Brady Basso throws from, Oswald Peraza will have an edge today.. Oswald Peraza's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 38.4% to 44.2%.
MIN
@
SF
Tue, Sep 22 • 9:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Drew Gilbert o0.5 Total Home Runs (+770)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Drew Gilbert's recent power profile makes him an intriguing longshot. He's homered twice in five games while producing a .500 ISO, 60% hard-hit rate, and 20% barrel rate lately. Bradley has also been more vulnerable to home runs on the road, giving Gilbert a legitimate path to another bomb.
Total
o7.5 (-101)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 55%. The bullpen matchup creates plenty of late scoring potential. San Francisco's relief corps has posted a 6.73 FIP with 2.45 HR/9 allowed over the last week, while Minnesota's pen hasn't exactly been dominant either. At only 7.5, one rough relief inning could quickly push this Over.
SD
@
LAD
Tue, Sep 22 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Jackson Merrill o0.5 Total Home Runs (+465)
Colby Marchio
Contributor
San Diego Padres young buck Jackson Merrill is my favorite home run look in this matchup against Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki. Sasaki has gone back to his struggling ways, with the last 60 lefties he has faced owning a .417 xBA, .524 xSLG and .363 xwOBA. Meanwhile, Merrill has been crushing the ball over his last 10 games, maintaining a 67.7% hard-hit rate with a .628 SLG and .233 ISO. Sasaki has also posted a 5.02 ERA and 5.48 xERA over his last three starts while allowing nearly 46% hard contact. I’m backing Merrill to go yard.
Total Home Runs
Fernando Tatis Jr. o0.5 Total Home Runs (+373)
JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Fernando Tatis Jr. has been scoring hot at the dish, leaving the yard five times in his last nine games. Dodger Stadium's 124 Park Factor for home runs means that there's an increased chance of Tatis continuing his fine form by popping a long ball.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
What's wrong with a little double-dip on Springer tonight? Not only does he have strong numbers against Bassitt (2 HR, .631 xSLG), but six of his 15 homers this year have come off breaking balls - and we all know the veteran righty loves to throw the kitchen sink at hitters. If someone is going yard tonight, Springer is the most likely candidate, and at +850, we can't turn down that price.
Total
o7.5 (+100)
Pick made: 7 hours ago
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'd price this closer to -110, so we're going to take advantage of this value. The Blue Jays see a familiar face on the bump in Chris Bassitt tonight, and while he's been fine over his last two starts, his 4.96 xERA suggests Toronto should be able to get to him. I'm expecting the Blue Jays to manufacture runs, with Bassitt posting a career-high xBA (.279) and career-low K rate (16.4%) this season. On the other side is Max Scherzer, who Baltimore just tagged for six earned runs 11 days ago. No matter how you slice it, tonight looks like we'll see some offensive fireworks.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
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