Remember, folks, don't be rude; it is Saturday!
Here are my favorite MLB home run props for today's slate, headlined by White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami and Atlanta Braves star Matt Olson.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Saturday, Aug. 8.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
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Home run pick: Munetaka Murakami (+307)
One of the most mispriced players on the board today, in my humble opinion, is easily Chicago White Sox slugger Munetaka Murakami.
His home run price is right around his usual range, but some of his other props, like 1+ hit, are hovering around -110 today.
The White Sox rookie is in a great spot to boom, so I am perplexed by today's pricing. Regardless, let's dive in!
Murakami enters Saturday with the third-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box, where he also owns an 80.4% arsenal coverage against Cleveland Guardians right-hander Gavin Williams.
Despite going cold over the last few games, I blame that on him facing a lot of left-handed pitchers, so his recent form does not concern me.
Over his last 30 at-bats against right-handed pitching, the slugger still owns a .280 BA, .720 SLG, 1.120 OPS and .440 ISO, while generating a 64.3% hard-hit rate and 28.6% barrel rate.
Williams, on the other hand, has hit some speed bumps against left-handed hitters as of late. Over his last 30 batters faced, they are producing a 46.7% hard-hit rate, 13.3% barrel rate, and 73.3% elevation rate.
Take this down to +300.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
Home run pick: Matt Olson (+307)
Another guy getting no love from the books this afternoon is Atlanta Braves slugger Matt Olson, who I think finds himself in a great spot against New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.
Olson has been on a tear against right-handed pitching over his last 60 plate appearances, posting a .292 BA, .604 SLG, 1.037 OPS and .312 ISO. During that stretch, he is still producing a 45.7% hard-hit rate and 17.1% barrel rate.
Cole has done a solid job dealing with left-handed hitters this season, but I do love that, over the last 60 he has faced, they are elevating the ball over 70% of the time while carrying an expected slugging percentage of .615.
On top of that, through 26 elite ratings this season, Olson has left the yard in 30.77% of those games. He has gone yard in three of his last five elite ratings, so hopefully he can keep that momentum rolling.
Take this down to the +280 range.
- Time: 3:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: YES, Braves Vision
Home run pick: Jordan Walker (+276)
The Home Run Derby champion has not been crushing homers coming out of the All-Star break, and neither has the league as a whole. However, St. Louis Cardinals young star Jordan Walker finds himself in a boom spot against Colorado Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland.
The veteran left-hander has struggled on the road against right-handed bats this season, as they own a .315 BA, .550 SLG, and .390 wOBA. Over the last 60 right-handed bats Freeland has faced, they are producing a 52% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and 63% elevation rate.
On top of that, they own a .436 xBA, .807 xSLG, and .367 xwOBA.
Walker, on the other hand, has feasted on left-handed pitching this season. Most importantly, over his last 60 at-bats against them, he has maintained a .300 BA, .837 OPS, .378 wOBA and 58% hard-hit rate.
With the way Freeland has been allowing right-handed hitters to do as they please, combined with how well Walker has seen lefties, I love this spot for him.
Try to get the best number possible, and bet this down to +250 at most.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Rockies.TV
- HR picks: 91-338, +4.7 units
Today’s HR combo
 Munetaka Murakami |
Trade Now +4865 |
 Matt Olson |
|
 Jordan Walker |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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