The first-place Tampa Bay Rays are short road underdogs for the middle game of a weekend series against the sub-.500 Seattle Mariners.
Tampa Bay is on a four-game winning streak, all on the road, while Seattle has dropped three of the last four, all at home.
My Rays at Mariners predictions and MLB picks have Tampa winning as +101 road underdogs.
Who will win Rays vs Mariners today: Rays moneyline (+101)
The Tampa Bay Rays are 14 games better than the Seattle Mariners on the season. Tampa has gone 45-24 (.652) against losing teams and is .500 on the road.
Seattle is 8-12, .400, since the All-Star Break, and this is just their fifth game since then against a winning team—they've won once.
So why are the M's favored? Not because of the pitching matchup. Tampa's Griffin Jax has a slightly better ERA (3.63) and WHIP (1.21) than Seattle's George Kirby and better metrics (strikeout rate, chase rate, whiff rate and run value).
The Rays as a dog is a no-brainer. I'd keep Tampa until -110.
COVERS INTEL: After throwing two curveballs all last year out of the bullpen, Jax has been throwing it more than 9% of the time as a starter. Opponents are hitting .154 against it, and the threat of it has also lowered the average against for his fastball and sinker by more than 40 points each. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, Colt Emerson and Cole Young all have negative run value against the curve this year, so it's a bad matchup for Seattle.
Rays vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (+119)
The Under isn't the obvious bet it should be, because they've lowered the cutoff to 6.5 runs. Seattle hasn't seen a totals cutoff of 8.5 or higher in seven games.
This is its sixth game with a total of 6.5 or lower. Only Cleveland (7 games) has more. It's their 87th below 8.5, most in MLB.
Tampa has been Under two straight and seven of 10. The Rays have the sixth-worst Over record in MLB while the Mariners have scored 0 or 1 in three of the last four games.
Getting plus odds for Under, even at such a low cutoff, is automatic.
- ML/RL bets: 28-37, -5.68 units
- Over/Under bets: 39-21, +5.64 units
Rays vs Mariners weather
Winds blowing in from centerfield will make it difficult to score runs tonight.
Rays vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Rays +104 | Mariners -108
- Run line: Rays -1.5 (+186) | Mariners +1.5 (-194)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-127) | Under 6.5 (+122)
Rays vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games. The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of 50. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners.
How to watch Rays vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Saturday, August 8, 2026 |
| First pitch | 9:50 p.m. ET |
| TV | Rays.TV, Mariners.TV |
| Rays starting pitcher | Griffin Jax (6-9, 3.63 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | George Kirby (8-9, 3.76 ERA) |
Rays vs Mariners latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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