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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.52 |
+145 
|
o7.5 -110 
|
+1.5 -148
|
|
4.23 |
-165
|
u8.0 -115 
|
-1.5 +135
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Valdezs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Valdezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Andres Chaparro u1.5 Total Bases (-220)
u1.5-220
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+112
|
o7.0 -120
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.33 |
-125 
|
u7.5 -118
|
-1.5 +172 
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Samuel Basallo o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
o0.5+475
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
-143
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.20 |
+130 
|
u8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -133
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-3 in Prielipps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Twins last 9 games following a win.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Connor Prielipp o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-170)
o4.5-170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.20 |
+105
|
o7.5 -127
|
+1.5 -200
|
|
|
3.68 |
-120
|
u8.5 -120
|
-1.5 +176 
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a road underdog.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Top Projection
Pete Alonso u0.5 Total Hits (+165)
u0.5+165
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.44 |
-130
|
o7.0 -125
|
-1.5 +135
|
|
4.08 |
+120
|
u7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -150
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Nolas last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Nolas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.23 |
+116
|
o7.0 -110
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
4.29 |
-120
|
u7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +170
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Cardinals last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Bachars last 6 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
o0.5+265
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.11 |
+130
|
o6.5 -106
|
+1.5 -180
|
|
4.03 |
-130
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +180
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Coles last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.78 |
+114
|
o6.5 -118
|
+1.5 -197
|
|
3.82 |
-130
|
u7.0 +105
|
-1.5 +180
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+209)
o0.5+209
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.66 |
+220
|
o7.0 -143
|
+3.5 -278
|
|
4.57 |
-250
|
u7.5 -120
|
-3.5 +220
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0-2 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Tyler Stephenson o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
o0.5+263
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.10 |
-113
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
4.95 |
+100
|
u8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Lugos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.22 |
+149
|
o6.5 -120
|
+1.5 -155
|
|
4.05 |
-170
|
u7.0 -115
|
-1.5 +140
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+143
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.50 |
-108
|
o7.5 -108
|
-1.5 +160
|
|
3.88 |
-107
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -190
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+187)
o0.5+187
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.49 |
-155
|
o11.0 -110
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.33 |
+135
|
u11.5 -130 
|
+1.5 -114
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+130)
o1.5+130
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.40 |
-129
|
o9.0 -155
|
+1.5 -295
|
|
4.85 |
+116
|
u9.5 -110
|
-1.5 +230
|
LA Angels
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-130)
o1.5-125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.62 |
+185
|
o7.0 -200
|
+3.5 -286
|
|
5.43 |
-215
|
u8.5 -120
|
-3.5 +225
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Yamamotos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
o1.5+155
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.92 |
+125
|
o7.5 -115
|
+1.5 -170
|
|
4.47 |
-125
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +164
|
Houston
- Under is 7-0-2 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+280
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Leahys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.30 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.85 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Royals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.45 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.74 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 9-0 in Rodriguezs last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.64 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 8-1-1 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 overall.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0-1 in Singers last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.28 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-1 in last 12 vs. American League West.
WAS
@
DET
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total Home Runs (+600)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 20%. Spencer Torkelson’s recent contact profile is encouraging, with a 50% hard-hit rate, 10% barrel rate, and .235 ISO over the last week. He also owns a 54.9% fly-ball rate at home, and Washington’s vulnerable bullpen gives him multiple opportunities to leave the yard.
Total
o7.5 (-129)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 60%. Washington’s pitching setup creates plenty of scoring potential, while the Nationals themselves have been productive against left-handed arms. That gives both sides a path to contributing offensively. Even with Detroit’s bullpen pitching well, there should be enough volatility here for this game to reach eight runs.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
What's wrong with a little double-dip on Springer tonight? Not only does he have strong numbers against Bassitt (2 HR, .631 xSLG), but six of his 15 homers this year have come off breaking balls - and we all know the veteran righty loves to throw the kitchen sink at hitters. If someone is going yard tonight, Springer is the most likely candidate, and at +850, we can't turn down that price.
Total
o7.5 (+100)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'd price this closer to -110, so we're going to take advantage of this value. The Blue Jays see a familiar face on the bump in Chris Bassitt tonight, and while he's been fine over his last two starts, his 4.96 xERA suggests Toronto should be able to get to him. I'm expecting the Blue Jays to manufacture runs, with Bassitt posting a career-high xBA (.279) and career-low K rate (16.4%) this season. On the other side is Max Scherzer, who Baltimore just tagged for six earned runs 11 days ago. No matter how you slice it, this afternoon looks like we'll see some offensive fireworks.
MIN
@
SF
Wed, Sep 23 • 3:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Victor Bericoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Bericoto has five homers and a solid .192 ISO across 102 plate appearances, and he sports an elite 59.5% hard-hit rate against lefties. So, in a game I’m forecasting to be low-scoring, the San Fran rookie checks out as a flier candidate to leave the yard this afternoon.
Total
u7.5 (+100)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Under 7.5 is in play until -115 because both teams are missing multiple impact hitters, and Oracle Park ranks 26th in Baseball Savant Park Factor and 28th in home runs. Both offenses have also been dreadful the past two weeks. Minnesota ranks 29th in xwOBA and 26th in ISO, while San Francisco checks in 24th and 22nd, respectively. There is also potential for the forecasted westerly breeze of 10-12 mph to gust closer to 20 mph and in from left-center field to provide a huge pitching advantage this afternoon.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:35 PM ET
Total Hits
Pete Alonso u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.78
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 7th-worst field in Major League Baseball for RHB base hits.. Batting from the same side that Spencer Miles throws from, Pete Alonso will have a tough challenge in today's game.
MIL
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
William Contreras o0.5 Total Home Runs (+700)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Contreras has a high-end .882 OPS with a homer across 34 plate appearances against Philly starter Aaron Nola. Of course, Nola has also served up 14 homers with a .225 ISO to right-handed hitters.
Total
o7.5 (+103)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Over 7.5 is in play to -105 because Philadelphia has scored 4.7 runs per game across the past two weeks, and Milwaukee has been even better with 6.5 per game. Both teams have trended to the Over, too, and I'm anticipating the Brewers doing damage against Phillies veteran Aaron Nola. His 2.10 ERA across his past 10 starts is miles below his underlying 3.69 xERA and 3.78 xFIP, after all.
STL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Oneil Cruz o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.53
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Oneil Cruz projects as the 18th-best home run batter in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.. PNC Park ranks as the #3 stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Oneil Cruz will hold that advantage in today's game.. Based on Statcast data, Oneil Cruz grades out in the 84th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 28.100.
Total RBIs
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+265)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Ryan O'Hearn is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.. PNC Park ranks as the #3 stadium in the game for left-handed BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Ryan O'Hearn will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.
TB
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Paul Goldschmidt o0.5 Total Home Runs (+475)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Paul Goldschmidt has hit .307 with a .281 ISO and 13.1% barrel rate vs. southpaws this season.
His numbers actually increase when isolating the fastball-changeup combination Ian Seymour is heavily reliant on, with the ISO climbing to .312.
Goldschmidt has homered in 24.1% of his games against left-handed starters ranking in the 60th percentile or worse in HR/9 vs. RHH.
Moneyline
NYY (-135)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I’d play the New York Yankees up to 60%.
They are a prolific offense against southpaws, especially at home. They rank second in xwOBA while leading the charge by a distant margin in barrel rate.
That should play well against Ian Seymour. He has allowed barrels 10.5% of the time over the last month, and has struggled with power all season.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Chase DeLauter o0.5 Total Home Runs (+750)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
Sonny Gray really likes to mix it up on the mound but the two pitches he throws more than 20% of the time are fastballs and curveballs.
That sets up well for Chase DeLauter, who has teed off on that combination over his last 25 games.
He is sporting a .519 average with a .444 ISO, 16.7 barrel rate, and near 97 mile per hour average exit velocity.
Total
u7.5 (-129)
Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
I like the Under to 58%.
Sonny Gray owns a 2.33 ERA over nine starts vs. Bottom-10 teams in OBP. That’s noteworthy as the Cleveland Guardians slot 22nd on the year.
While Foster Griffin has not limited runs as effectively with the Guardians, he has done a good job of keeping the ball in the park. He is allowing 0.96 home runs per nine innings with Cleveland.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Spread
ATL -1.5 (-109)
Joe Osborne
Senior Betting Analyst
Sure, I’ll back Chris Sale and his 1.66 home ERA against a team that can’t hit lefties. The Reds rank 28th in OPS vs LHP over the last two weeks, while Atlanta is 10-3 in Sale’s home starts and should be eager to bounce back after losing yesterday. Andrew Abbott has been obliterated for 23 earned runs across his last four road starts. Cincinnati's bullpen offers little relief, ranking dead last in ERA (6.04) over the last two weeks.
Total Bases
Ronald Acuna Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 6th-best hitter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 4th-best park in baseball for boosting offensive stats to RHB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This game is expected to have the most humidity on the slate (83%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.55
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Salvador Perez will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Salvador Perez's true offensive ability to be a .316, implying that he has had bad variance on his side this year given the .038 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .278 wOBA.. Salvador Perez has performed at a clip of 36.0 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 96th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Hits
Pete Crow-Armstrong u0.5 Total Hits (+195)
Projection 0.86
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 15-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for pitchers.. Today, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.8% rate (99th percentile).. Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has had some very good luck given the .050 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
Total RBIs
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.42
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Wrigley Field has the 7th-shallowest left field dimensions in MLB.. This game is forecasted to have the highest humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Dansby Swanson will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Despite posting a .311 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dansby Swanson has suffered from bad luck given the .021 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Let's start things off with a mispriced Juan Soto bomb at 5.1x, where the fair value is closer to 3.5x. The Rangers are likely to start Cody Bradford, who was demoted to a bulk-relief role after giving up 11 runs in three starts and 11-plus innings. The Rangers are desperate, sitting three games out of the Wild Card spot, and pushing that bullpen, combined with this pressure, is a good spot for Soto, who has seven hits over his last 19 plate appearances. The value is coming from the lefty-vs-lefty matchup, but Bradford's leash is not long. Sixty-five pitches could be in the cards, and maybe even fewer if he stumbles. It's an indoor game with the thermostat falling quickly.
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+127)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 114° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 17.6%.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Corbin Carroll o0.5 Total Home Runs (+410)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Here is another 5.1x home run that should have a fair value of 3.5x at Coors Field against the worst HR/9 pitcher on the slate. Carroll has been demoted to the fifth spot in the lineup due to a September slump, but he still has three dingers and an .826 OPS over his last 10 games. If that's a slump, I'm buying the dip. The wind is blowing out to his pull side, and a matchup against Mason Adams is a great thing at this price. Adams has allowed a homer in each of his five starts and has given up six homers in 23 innings, with a 3.0 HR/9 and 9.00 ERA at Coors. I would love three plate appearances against Mason, who lefties are hitting .341 against.
Total Bases
Pavin Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.44
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 75th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. This contest is expected to have the 33rd-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.3-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.15
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shea Langeliers in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Shea Langeliers is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.
Total Bases
Mike Trout o1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Projection 2.13
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Mookie Betts o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mookie Betts in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Mookie Betts is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Mookie Betts will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray today.
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 16th-best batter in the game.. Will Smith is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-best for hitting on the slate.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Randy Arozarena o1.5 Total Bases (+200)
Projection 1.47
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+215)
Projection 1.33
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Based on Statcast data, Christian Walker grades out in the 78th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 26.400.
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