MLB Picks

Both Miami starter Sandy Alcantara and Pittsburgh righty Braxton Ashcraft have been sensational in this market this season and have combined to pitch 23 scoreless opening frames across 27 starts. Additionally, Alcantara's first-inning numbers (5.14 ERA with a .758 OPS allowed) are skewed because all eight runs he’s surrendered were across just three games. Ashcraft, meanwhile, checks in with an absolutely elite .169 batting average and .414 OPS allowed in the opening frame across his 21 career starts.

Mariners righty Bryce Miller has spun four consecutive scoreless first frames to start his 2026 campaign, and he also held opposing hitters to a modest .601 OPS across 18 opening innings last season. Seattle is in tough against Washington righty Zack Littell, too. He’s also fired four consecutive scoreless opening innings and has held opposing hitters to a lower .479 OPS across nine 2026 starts. Additionally, Littell has settled into a sterling groove with an overall 3.47 FIP across his past seven outings.

If Jack Flaherty is going to have any type of success on the mound, he needs a matchup against an aggressive lineup of right-handed hitters that chases bad pitches and strikes out at a high rate. That is the complete opposite of what he'll see from the Guardians, who can effectively stack the lineup with nine left-handed bats thanks to their collection of switch hitters. Not only does that diminish the effectiveness of Flaherty's slider as a put-away pitch, but the Guardians' lineup is built around high-contact hitters who work counts, foul off pitches, and consistently put the ball in play. That's a nightmare scenario for Flaherty, who is sporting a 4.74 BB/9 this season. The Guardians are trading as -120 favorites on the moneyline, but I price them closer to -145 in this spot.

Misiorowski has faced five teams sitting in the Top 10 in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. He has averaged 10.4 punchouts, 6.4 innings, and allowed just two runs…total. If Painter avoids a blowup, he will turn the ball over to the MLB’s best bullpen by xFIP since May 1. Bet to -130.

The White Sox have won seven consecutive home games. They are 6-1 in Anthony Kay's seven starts at Rate field, and L.A.'s wRC+ is 47 points worse against left-handed pitching in the last 20 days. Chicago pelts fastballs (third in runs above average per 100 pitches), and Roki Sasaki throws a very hittable one (.313 xBA and .563 xSLG).

Kody Clemens finds himself in another premium boom spot tonight against Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy. The Twins outfielder owns an elite Batters-Box rating and draws a pitcher who has struggled mightily against left-handed hitters this season. Leahy carries a 7.75 xERA while allowing 60% hard contact, a 13.7% barrel rate, a .619 xSLG, and a .434 xwOBA to lefties. Clemens also boasts an 84.2% arsenal coverage rating against Leahy's pitch mix. Over his last 30 matchups against right-handed pitching, Clemens has posted a .379 average, .862 slugging percentage, 1.262 OPS, and elite hard hit metrics. RUN IT BACK!

Atlanta and Chicago send two of the best lineups in baseball to the dish, and they respectively rank eighth and third in wOBA against lefties for the campaign. The two clubs have also trended to the Over, and I'm particularly expecting White Sox southpaw Anthony Kay to struggle considering he's saddled with the fifth-highest xERA in baseball among the 100 pitchers with at least 60 innings this year.