The San Diego Padres look to clinch a Wild Card spot at Dodger Stadium tonight, with Los Angeles chasing a first-round bye.
The Dodgers sit at a 63% implied probability on the moneyline, with first pitch set for 10:10 p.m. ET.
Two bat-missing starters shape my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions, which are anchored by the San Diego run line.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, Sept. 24.
Who will win Padres vs Dodgers today: Padres +1.5
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
I’d play this to 61%. The starting pitching matchup is close enough to take the extra run with the San Diego Padres rather than pay 63% on the Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline.
Nick Pivetta brings a 3.30 ERA and 10.5 strikeouts per nine, while Tyler Glasnow counters with a 3.46 ERA and 11.57 K/9. We’ve got two high-whiff starters who avoid blow-up innings.
The bullpen protects this play. Mason Miller has converted 32 of 34 saves, and Adrian Morejon and the returning Jason Adam keep the margin tight late.
Add-on runs, not the loss itself, beat a +1.5 ticket.
COVERS INTEL: Since his return from injury, Pivetta has allowed three total runs across three starts, shutting down Washington, San Francisco, and Miami. 
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under pick: Under 7.5
Both starters have the swing-and-miss stuff to control this game, making Under 7.5 my preferred total play up to 54%.
Glasnow struck out a season-high 10 batters over six innings against San Francisco his last time out, and Pivetta allowed one run over five innings in his most recent start.
The season series backs it up. Seven of the previous 10 meetings have finished Under, including both games of this series, which ended 7-0 and 5-1.
San Diego’s bullpen adds another layer if Pivetta exits with the game close. A 3-2 or 4-2 final fits this matchup.
Padres vs Dodgers home run prediction: Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman gives us the best combination of price and matchup on the home run board up to 19%.
Freeman has seen plenty of Pivetta, going 16-for-41 with two home runs and a .390 average across 45 plate appearances, a far larger pitcher-specific sample than most home run props offer.
Price separates him from the obvious names. Shohei Ohtani sits at 25% after returning from the injured list, while Fernando Tatis Jr. costs 20% despite going 1-for-10 with six strikeouts against Glasnow.
- ML/RL picks: 5-11, -6.73 units
- Over/Under picks: 10-6, +3.34 units
Padres vs Dodgers weather
Conditions are mild and neutral for the late finish at Dodger Stadium, with temperatures at first pitch near 74 degrees with a light 6.5-mph wind.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
- Moneyline: Padres 38% | Dodgers 63%
- Run line: Padres +1.5 | Dodgers -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Padres vs Dodgers trend
The Padres have covered the run line in 25 of their last 40 games (+12.80 Units / 25% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
How to watch Padres vs Dodgers and game info
| Location | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 24, 2026 |
| First pitch | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, SNLA |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (3-2, 3.30 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher | Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 3.46 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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