The final weekend of the MLB season is here, and there are plenty of starting pitcher edges and angles to comb over, since MLB player props are especially susceptible in the dying days of the season.
Freddy Peralta is better than a K/inning starter and can get five punchouts over five frames at plus money; Jacob Lopez is limping to the finish line, and Noah Cameron needs to protect that sub-4.00 ERA.
These are my favorite strikeout and pitcher props, along with my MLB picks for Friday, September 25.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Freddy Peralta |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +124 |
 Jacob Lopez |
Under 4.5 strikeouts | -120 |
 Noah Cameron |
Under 17.5 outs | +105 |
Strikeout prop: Freddy Peralta Over 4.5 strikeouts (+124)
Freddy Peralta has the best +EV Over strikeout prop, per the projections today, with 4.79 Ks on 88 pitches, which might even be a light pitch count. The Tampa Bay Rays starter went 97 pitches in his last turn and struck out six.
He also has some motivation today, as the Philadelphia Phillies handed him his worst outing of the year when he gave up 10 runs back in June.
It's pretty simple math: Peralta has been a 10.1 K/9 pitcher over the last four seasons and has gone 15-plus outs in six straight starts with a mid-90s pitch count. He can get to this plus-money Over on just five innings of work.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSP, Rays.TV
Strikeout prop: Jacob Lopez Under 4.5 strikeouts (-120)
The fair price on Athletics' Jacob Lopez's Under 4.5 strikeouts today at home is -140. He's fading hard heading into his final start.
He just gave up 10 runs over an eight-out performance most recently, and over his last three games, he's gone just 12.1 innings with five Ks and 19 earned runs. He threw only 63 pitches in his last start, and his 117 innings this season are already 25 more than his career high.
He also faces the Houston Astros in Sacramento, which is the best Over park in baseball for a reason. The hitting conditions at Sutter Health Park aren't doing Lopez any favors either, with winds blowing out and decent hitting temperatures.
I'm also on the Over 8.5 runs in this game.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSCA, Space City Home Network
Pitcher out prop: Noah Cameron Under 17.5 outs (+105)
Here's the angle: Noah Cameron is sitting with a sub-4.00 ERA heading into his final start and is already at a career high in innings. If he's clean through five innings and around 80 pitches, there is no reason to send him back out.
It might seem subjective, but finishing a season with a sub-4.00 ERA is a big deal for a pitcher, and I can tell you it's the kind of thing that becomes a talking point in a meaningless game.
The Cleveland Guardians are no easy out and are still playing for a division title, so the Kansas City Royals starter is going to have a tough opponent today. The projections already like his Under 17.5 outs, and that doesn't even account for the ERA angle.
THE BAT is calling for 16.6 outs on a 90-pitch outing.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Royals.TV, Guardians.TV
- Prop picks: 44-36, +11.09 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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