It's a jam-packed 17-game slate across the majors today as the regular season winds down, and I've identified my best MLB moneyline picks for each contest.
See them all in my MLB picks for Friday, Sept. 25, headlined by the Angels and the Dodgers.
MLB moneyline picks for September 25
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Cubsvs  Red Sox (Game 1) |
48% |
 Oriolesvs  Yankees (Game 1) |
45% |
| Cubs vs Red Sox (Game 2) |
49% |
 Piratesvs  Tigers |
51% |
 Raysvs  Phillies |
40% |
 Metsvs  Nationals |
46% |
| Orioles vs Yankees (Game 2) |
55% |
 Redsvs  Blue Jays |
55% |
 Bravesvs  Marlins |
53% |
 Guardiansvs  Royals |
56% |
 Rockiesvs  White Sox |
68% |
 Cardinalsvs  Brewers |
63% |
 Rangersvs  Twins |
51% |
 Astrosvs  Athletics |
61% |
 Diamondbacksvs  Padres |
46% |
 Angelsvs  Mariners |
45% |
 Dodgersvs  Giants |
77% |
Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 9-25.
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Expert MLB moneyline picks for September 25
Cubs vs Red Sox Game 1: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 48%
The Cubs send Clay Holmes to the hill in the first game of the doubleheader, and he owns a 4.91 FIP and an ERA over 6.00 in his last two starts. Boston is set to go with a bullpen game here, and that's a strength right now.
The Red Sox relief corps sports a 2.80 FIP in its last 30 2/3 innings of work, and Chicago's offense has cooled off considerably. Boston's staff will keep them off-balance.
Orioles vs Yankees Game 1: Orioles
Orioles win probability: 45%
Trevor Rogers gives the O's a cleaner look here. He's posted a 2.69 xERA in his last 14 innings of work, and he's limited opponents to a mere 25% hard-hit rate.
The Yankees have called up Brandon Beck to start in Game 1. He hasn't pitched in the majors since August, and has already surrendered seven runs in 7 2/3 innings.
Cubs vs Red Sox Game 2: Red Sox
Red Sox win probability: 49%
I'm eyeing Boston to also take Game 2 behind the brilliance of Brayan Bello. He's only allowed 0.18 HR/9 at Fenway Park this season, and it's difficult to overlook his recent 1.61 xERA.
David Peterson has also been in good form for the Cubbies, but the Red Sox are a team that swings it well against left-handers, compiling a 106 wRC+ in 2026. It could be a pitcher's duel, but Boston has a small edge.
Pirates vs Tigers: Tigers
Tigers win probability: 51%
Detroit has a clear opportunity to do damage against Bubba Chandler, who has posted a poor 7.64 xERA over the last two weeks with major command and long ball issues.
Jackson Jobe, meanwhile, gives the Tigers stability. He's compiled a 2.23 xERA over his previous two outings while holding opponents to a 29.6% hard-hit rate.
Rays vs Phillies: Rays
Rays win probability: 40%
I'm seeing immense value in Tampa here. Freddy Peralta has hit a wonderful run of form, allowing a mere 11.5% barrel rate across his last two starts with a 2.63 FIP.
Cristopher Sanchez has still been respectable, but he has a 4.83 xERA in his previous 12 2/3 innings of work, and that vulnerability is dangerous against a Rays lineup that is among the best in the big leagues.
Mets vs Nationals: Nationals
Nationals win probability: 46%
The Mets haven't announced who will start tonight, but I'm backing the Nationals regardless because of Andrew Alvarez. The 27-year-old has tossed back-to-back scoreless starts while posting a 2.12 FIP during that span.
He's already pitched well this season against New York, surrendering just two earned runs in each of his two outings.
Orioles vs Yankees Game 2: Yankees
Yankees win probability: 56%
I'm going with the Yankees to take the second game of this doubleheader. They haven't revealed the Game 2 starter, but Brandon Young's vulnerability gives New York a clear path to victory.
The right-hander has had major control issues lately while surrendering too many homers. N.Y.'s offense will capitalize.
Reds vs Blue Jays: Blue Jays
Blue Jays win probability: 55%
Nick Lodolo has been vulnerable for most of the season, and he's been no better lately. The left-hander owns a 6.67 FIP over the last two weeks while allowing 1.93 HR/9.
Jose Soriano, on the other hand, has been much more reliable. The righty has a 3.01 FIP in his last two starts with pinpoint command. The Blue Jays are the clear pick tonight.
Braves vs Marlins: Braves
Braves win probability: 53%
The Braves will go with an opener in this NL East matchup, with Ray Kerr likely going one or two innings after getting called up. Atlanta's relief corps has a 2.99 FIP in the last week, giving them stability throughout this contest.
Eury Perez has allowed 13 earned runs in his last four appearances. He's vulnerable, and the Braves' offensive profile at the moment should punish him.
Guardians vs Royals: Guardians
Guardians win probability: 56%
Gavin Williams takes the hill for the Guardians, and he's been dealing. Over the last month, the right-hander has a 2.18 FIP while consistently pounding the strike zone and limiting home run damage.
Noah Cameron has been decent as well during that same span, but the Royals starter has had issues with the long ball, and Cleveland is swinging it very well at the moment.
Rockies vs White Sox: White Sox
White Sox win probability: 68%
Chicago's Sean Burke has a 0.82 ERA and a 3.10 FIP over his last two appearances, and he certainly gives the White Sox an edge as Tomoyuki Sugano takes the mound for the Rockies.
The righty has a poor 5.10 FIP over his previous five starts while allowing plenty of hard contact.
Cardinals vs Brewers: Brewers
Brewers win probability: 63%
Neither of these starters is in great form, but Robert Gasser is doing a much better job of limiting hard contact than Michael McGreevy.
He's allowed a hard-hit rate under 30% in his last two starts, and Gasser has only surrendered 0.91 HR/9 at home this season.
Rangers vs Twins: Rangers
Rangers win probability: 51%
The Rangers have the cleaner look tonight behind Jacob deGrom. He hasn't been spectacular, but his 3.11 xERA recently is certainly respectable, and Texas should be able to do damage against Joe Ryan.
He has a 7.76 FIP in the last two weeks while giving up 3.00 HR/9. The Rangers have an advantage.
Astros vs Athletics: Astros
Astros win probability: 61%
Hunter Brown has been absolutely dealing, posting a 0.59 FIP over his last two appearances. Jacob Lopez, meanwhile, is in horrible form, collecting a 9.41 FIP in that same span.
The Astros have a massive edge tonight.
Diamondbacks vs Padres: Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks win probability: 46%
Casey Mize's struggles give Arizona a clear path as an underdog tonight. The right-hander owns a 6.84 FIP over his last two starts.
Brandon Pfaadt has been much better with a 3.00 FIP during that same span, and he hasn't given up an earned run to the Padres in his last two outings against them this season.
Angels vs Mariners: Angels
Angels win probability: 45%
Reid Detmers is dealing right now. The left-hander owns a 3.37 FIP over his last two starts with phenomenal command, and he sports a 2.13 ERA against the Mariners this season.
As for Bryce Miller, his 5.80 FIP over the last two weeks is troubling, and he's walked 6.10 per nine innings during that span.
Dodgers vs Giants: Dodgers
Dodgers win probability: 77%
The odds do not offer much value, but I'm still siding with the Dodgers as Tarik Skubal toes the hill. While he did surrender four earned runs to this same Giants team in his last start, the southpaw still has a 2.58 FIP over the last month.
L.A.'s offense is also raking, posting a 127 wRC+ in the last two weeks. They already tagged Giants rookie Yunior Marte for six earned runs on September 20, too.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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