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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.49 |
+154 
|
o7.5 -120 
|
+1.5 -143
|
|
4.22 |
-175 
|
u8.0 -109 
|
-1.5 +126
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague road games vs. a left-handed starter.
Detroit
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Valdezs last 5 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0-2 in Valdezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-0 in Tigers last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Dillon Dingler u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
u0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+105
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
4.33 |
-120
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
-145 
|
o7.5 -115
|
-1.5 +120
|
|
3.14 |
+128
|
u8.0 -120
|
+1.5 -136 
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 2-0-3 in Prielipps last 5 starts as a road underdog.
- Over is 8-1 in Twins last 9 games following a win.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
San Francisco
- Under is 5-0-1 in Giants last 6 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o4.5-160
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.22 |
+104
|
o8.0 -115
|
+1.5 -190
|
|
|
3.70 |
-120 
|
u8.5 -121
|
-1.5 +163
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a road underdog.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.46 |
-138
|
o7.5 +100
|
-1.5 +130
|
|
4.10 |
+125
|
u7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -141
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Under is 7-0 in Nolas last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-0 in Nolas last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
Top Projection
Trea Turner o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
o0.5+290
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.21 |
+100
|
o7.5 +102
|
+1.5 -205
|
|
4.25 |
-113
|
u7.5 -102
|
-1.5 +165
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 8-0-1 in Cardinals last 9 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-0-1 in Bachars last 6 starts on grass.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Ryan O'Hearn o0.5 Total RBIs (+255)
o0.5+255
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.04 |
+135
|
o6.5 -136
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
3.98 |
-150
|
u7.5 -145
|
-1.5 +156
|
Tampa Bay
- Rays are 6-0 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 4-0 in Rays last 4 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 8-1 in Coles last 9 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Top Projection
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+330)
o0.5+330
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.82 |
+114
|
o7.0 -117
|
+1.5 -197
|
|
3.86 |
-130
|
u7.5 -124
|
-1.5 +170
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a win.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 vs. American League Central.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+203)
o0.5+203
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.79 |
+220
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -110
|
|
4.62 |
-250
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -105
|
Cincinnati
- Over is 4-0-2 in Reds last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Reds last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Braves last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Jose Trevino o0.5 Total RBIs (+450)
o0.5+450
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.13 |
-113
|
o8.5 -105
|
-1.5 +148
|
|
4.98 |
+100
|
u8.5 -104
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Lugos last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Lugos last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.76 |
+150
|
o6.5 -137
|
+1.5 -152
|
|
4.73 |
-170
|
u7.5 -150 
|
-1.5 +136
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Cubs are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-107
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +163
|
|
3.88 |
-105
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -180
|
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Rangers last 9 games as a home favorite.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
o1.5+140
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.47 |
-155
|
o10.5 -135
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.33 |
+135
|
u11.5 -130
|
+1.5 -112
|
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Pavin Smith o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+125)
o1.5+125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.41 |
-129
|
o9.0 -141
|
+1.5 -275
|
|
4.87 |
+116
|
u9.5 -109
|
-1.5 +215
|
LA Angels
- Over is 6-0 in Angels last 6 games following a loss.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Angels last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Angels last 4 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Angels last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Shea Langeliers o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-125)
o1.5-125
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.61 |
+182
|
o7.0 -200
|
+3.5 -286
|
|
5.39 |
-215
|
u8.5 -120
|
-3.5 +225
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 5-0-1 in Padres last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 6-0 in Padres last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Dodgers are 5-0 in Yamamotos last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
o1.5+150
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.97 |
+125
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.44 |
-143
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +150
|
Houston
- Under is 7-0-2 in Astros last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
- Under is 5-0-2 in Astros last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Seattle
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mariners last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Mariners last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Mariners last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+275)
o0.5+275
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.70 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
St. Louis
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts on grass.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Leahys last 5 starts overall.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Leahys last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Pirates are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Pirates are 7-0 in their last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 overall.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
5.30 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.85 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Chi. White Sox
- Over is 4-0 in White Sox last 4 road games.
- Over is 8-2 in White Sox last 10 vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in White Sox last 6 games as a favorite.
Kansas City
- Under is 5-0 in Royals last 5 during game 3 of a series.
- Under is 8-1-1 in Royals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Royals last 6 home games.
- Over is 4-1 in Royals last 5 vs. American League Central.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.45 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall.
- Over is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games as a road underdog.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games.
- Over is 6-0-1 in Cubs last 7 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 4-0-1 in Cubs last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.74 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.54 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
NY Mets
- Over is 6-0-1 in Mets last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 overall.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 on grass.
Texas
- Over is 7-0-1 in Rangers last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 home games.
- Rangers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Over is 8-1-1 in Rangers last 10 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.35 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.89 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Arizona
- Under is 6-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 7 road games.
- Diamondbacks are 9-0 in Rodriguezs last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 4-0 in Rodriguezs last 4 starts as a favorite.
Colorado
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as a home underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.51 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.64 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Milwaukee
- Over is 8-1-1 in Brewers last 10 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as an underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Brewers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1 in Brewers last 5 games as a road favorite.
Philadelphia
- Over is 4-0-1 in Phillies last 5 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 overall.
- Phillies are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 on grass.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.65 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.34 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cleveland
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 overall.
- Guardians are 6-0 in their last 6 games on grass.
- Guardians are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Guardians are 7-1 in their last 8 games as a road favorite.
Boston
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 starts as a home favorite.
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Suarezs last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- Red Sox are 6-0 in Suarezs last 6 home starts.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 home games.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
3.48 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
4.29 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Tampa Bay
- Under is 6-1 in Rays last 7 vs. American League East.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
- Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 4-1 in Rays last 5 overall.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 starts as a home favorite.
- Yankees are 4-0 in Schlittlers last 4 home starts.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Yankees last 8 games as an underdog.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
4.38 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.39 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Cincinnati
- Over is 6-0-1 in Singers last 7 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 6-1-1 in Reds last 8 during game 3 of a series.
- Over is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Atlanta
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts on grass.
- Braves are 5-0 in Mahles last 5 starts.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts during game 3 of a series.
- Braves are 4-0 in Mahles last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
6.61 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
|
5.28 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
Houston
- Under is 3-0-1 in Astros last 4 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
- Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 during game 1 of a series.
- Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 road games.
Athletics
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 11-1 in last 12 vs. American League West.
WAS
@
DET
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Total
o7.5 (-129)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 60%. Washington’s pitching setup creates plenty of scoring potential, while the Nationals themselves have been productive against left-handed arms. That gives both sides a path to contributing offensively. Even with Detroit’s bullpen pitching well, there should be enough volatility here for this game to reach eight runs.
Spread
DET -1.5 (+121)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 50%. Detroit gets an ideal matchup against a Washington bullpen game, especially with the Tigers carrying a 128 wRC+ over the last week. The Nationals’ relief corps has been shaky and vulnerable to power, giving Detroit plenty of chances to build a multi-run cushion.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Pick made: 21 hours ago
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
What's wrong with a little double-dip on Springer tonight? Not only does he have strong numbers against Bassitt (2 HR, .631 xSLG), but six of his 15 homers this year have come off breaking balls - and we all know the veteran righty loves to throw the kitchen sink at hitters. If someone is going yard tonight, Springer is the most likely candidate, and at +850, we can't turn down that price.
Total
o7.5 (+100)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'd price this closer to -110, so we're going to take advantage of this value. The Blue Jays see a familiar face on the bump in Chris Bassitt tonight, and while he's been fine over his last two starts, his 4.96 xERA suggests Toronto should be able to get to him. I'm expecting the Blue Jays to manufacture runs, with Bassitt posting a career-high xBA (.279) and career-low K rate (16.4%) this season. On the other side is Max Scherzer, who Baltimore just tagged for six earned runs 11 days ago. No matter how you slice it, tonight looks like we'll see some offensive fireworks.
MIN
@
SF
Wed, Sep 23 • 3:45 PM ET
Total Home Runs
Victor Bericoto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
Bericoto has five homers and a solid .192 ISO across 102 plate appearances, and he sports an elite 59.5% hard-hit rate against lefties. So, in a game I’m forecasting to be low-scoring, the San Fran rookie checks out as a flier candidate to leave the yard this afternoon.
Total
u7.5 (+100)
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst
This Under 7.5 is in play until -115 because both teams are missing multiple impact hitters, and Oracle Park ranks 26th in Baseball Savant Park Factor and 28th in home runs. Both offenses have also been dreadful the past two weeks. Minnesota ranks 29th in xwOBA and 26th in ISO, while San Francisco checks in 24th and 22nd, respectively. There is also potential for the forecasted westerly breeze of 10-12 mph to gust closer to 20 mph and in from left-center field to provide a huge pitching advantage this afternoon.
MIL
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
PHI (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Philadelphia Phillies are trading as a 45% underdog on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to a 49% underdog against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. The edge really comes down to the sense of urgency for both teams. The Phillies are locked in a three-way battle for seeding in the NL Wild Card race, while the Brewers are in the driver's seat for the top seed in the NL and have already clinched a bye into the NLDS. I'd expect the Brewers to prioritize pitch-count preservation for Logan Henderson and their high-leverage bullpen arms, while the Phillies will be managing this game with a greater sense of urgency.
Moneyline
MIL (-136)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10, and I like the pitching advantage with Logan Henderson. The right-hander owns a 2.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP and has allowed just eight earned runs over his last five starts. Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola and a bullpen carrying a 4.34 ERA. With the Brewers owning MLB's best record and getting the better starter and relief corps, -136 is a price I'm willing to lay.
STL
@
PIT
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Henry Davis o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.39
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for run-scoring.. PNC Park sits at the 6th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to higher offensive output.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Henry Davis will have an edge today.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Henry Davis will hold that advantage today.. Henry Davis has been unlucky this year, notching a .265 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .312 — a .047 disparity.
Total RBIs
Thomas Saggese o0.5 Total RBIs (+260)
Projection 0.4
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for run-scoring.. The Pittsburgh Pirates outfield defense projects as the 4th-worst out of every team in action today.. Thomas Saggese has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last season's 89.8-mph figure.. This year, Thomas Saggese's 10.3% Barrel%, an advanced stat for measuring power, places him in the 77th percentile among his peers.
TB
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Junior Caminero o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.82
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Junior Caminero ranks as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Junior Caminero is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Junior Caminero has averaged 36.4 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 97th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. This year, Junior Caminero's 13% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 89th percentile among his peers.
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+290)
Projection 1.24
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage against Gerrit Cole today.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Cedric Mullins has been unlucky this year, notching a .276 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .031 difference.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-120)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has been excellent down the stretch, posting a 2.61 ERA over his last five starts while averaging six innings per outing. Four of those five games finished with seven runs or fewer. Foster Griffin has a 3.06 ERA of his own and held Boston to one run over five innings earlier this season. With two starters capable of working deep, I'm backing Under 7.5.
Total Hits
Trevor Story u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Trevor Story has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most favorable for pitching on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Sean Murphy u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sean Murphy is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today's game.. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Sean Murphy has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 13.1% rate last year has dropped off to 7.9% this year.. Sean Murphy's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 89-mph EV last season has dropped off to 86.7-mph.. Sean Murphy's launch angle this season (6.1°) is a considerable dropoff from his 11.1° figure last season.
Total Home Runs
Jose Trevino o0.5 Total Home Runs (+2500)
Projection 0.06
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The 3rd-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball are found in Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.. This game is expected to have the most humidity on the slate (83%); there is a small but significant connection with increased offense (and decreased whiffs) when the weather is humid.. Given Chris Sale's huge platoon split, Jose Trevino will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Carter Jensen o1.5 Total Bases (+155)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carter Jensen in the 89th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Carter Jensen is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Carter Jensen will have an advantage in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (+106)
Projection 1.99
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his batting average skill, Bobby Witt Jr. is projected as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Kauffman Stadium ranks as the #7 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Bobby Witt Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+175)
Projection 1.48
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Pete Crow-Armstrong o1.5 Total Bases (+109)
Projection 1.84
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Gusto today.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total RBIs
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+196)
Projection 0.64
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 114° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 17.6%.
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+127)
Projection 2
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 114° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Juan Soto's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 17.6%.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Pavin Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+202)
Projection 1.43
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 75th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Batting from the opposite that Mason Adams throws from, Pavin Smith will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Despite posting a .245 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pavin Smith has had some very poor luck given the .061 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .306.
Strikeouts Thrown
Merrill Kelly o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-132)
Projection 4.23
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Merrill Kelly has averaged 91.8 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 76th percentile.. The Colorado Rockies have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Hunter Goodman, Connor Norby, Mickey Moniak, Zac Veen).. It is scheduled that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Nestor Ceja) in charge of the strike zone in this game.. Given the 0.91 disparity between Merrill Kelly's 6.38 K/9 and his 7.29 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to see positive regression in future games.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Jose Siri o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.54
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Jose Siri will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Jose Siri o1.5 Total Bases (+160)
Projection 1.65
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Siri in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 85°.. Batting from the opposite that Jeffrey Springs throws from, Jose Siri will have the upper hand in today's matchup.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Teoscar Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+150)
Projection 1.92
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Teoscar Hernandez in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Teoscar Hernandez will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Teoscar Hernandez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Compared to last year, Teoscar Hernandez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 38.8% to 45.8% this season.
Total Bases
Manny Machado o1.5 Total Bases (+170)
Projection 1.61
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.. Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Manny Machado hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 79th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences today.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Cal Raleigh u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.66
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks T-Mobile Park as the 2nd-worst ballpark in MLB for run-scoring.. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Cal Raleigh's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 97-mph average last year has dropped to 93.4-mph.. Cal Raleigh's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 39% to 31.4%.. By putting up a .230 BABIP this year, Cal Raleigh is positioned in the 1st percentile.
Total RBIs
Randy Arozarena o0.5 Total RBIs (+280)
Projection 0.5
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams today.
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Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
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MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
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