STOP! Do not cry! We still have plenty of MLB player props to get through on the final week and last full-slate Tuesday of the season.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for September 22, including why Jake Burger is ready to pop off against Sean Manaea.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Freeland |
Over 2.5 earned runs | -151 |
 MacKenzie Gore |
Over 1.5 walks allowed | -141 |
| Jake Burger |
Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI | -105 |
Kyle Freeland Over 2.5 earned runs (-151)
Teams average roughly three runs in the first five innings, while the Colorado Rockies are allowing well over three runs in the first five innings at home this season.
Left-hander Kyle Freeland, who has the worst pitcher rating on Batters-Box’s current-season dataset, is giving up 3.5 runs per game at home this season. Overall, he has allowed 3.79 runs per outing (24 starts).
This evening, the veteran southpaw draws six elite-rated Arizona Diamondbacks hitters. On top of that, this lineup is on fire, posting a 115 wRC+, .775 OPS, and .341 wOBA over the last 12 games.
If you are not in the juice-paying business, alt to 3.5 earned runs, but I would rather have the better number than sweat out another run.
- Time: 8:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ARID, COLR
MacKenzie Gore Over 1.5 walks allowed (-141)
Texas Rangers left-hander MacKenzie Gore has been struggling to find the zone over his last couple of outings. He draws a New York Mets team that has been drawing walks at a solid clip as of late, too.
Paying $1.41 juice is not asking a lot when Gore sports a near-17% walk rate over his last five starts. He has also allowed at least three walks in five straight starts.
New York has been great at drawing walks against southpaws. In its last 60 at-bats against a left-hander, seven hitters own at least a 10% walk rate.
Gore may be on a short leash due to his command issues, but we could also see this prop go over in the first inning. Either way, these percentages are way too high to ignore. Do not pay more than -145.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, SNY
Jake Burger Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-105)
I'm making another Mets vs. Rangers prediction, as Jake Burger finds himself in a feast spot against Mets southpaw Sean Manaea, who has a near-17% barrel rate in his last five starts.
Meanwhile, Burger has been torching left-handers. Against the last 60 lefties the Rangers slugger has faced, he is generating a 60% hard-hit rate and a 35% barrel rate, while owning a .731 SLG and .462 ISO.
Manaea, against the last 30 right-handed hitters he has faced, is allowing a 50% hard-hit rate and a 13.6% barrel rate. On top of that, they have a .317 xBA, .561 xSLG, and .267 ISO.
With how much hard contact Burger is generating and how much Manaea is allowing, if the big fella connects, it should be in the bleachers.
Take this down to -120.
- Time: 8:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: RSN, SNY
- Prop picks: 524-1031, +7.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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