The final full-slate Tuesday of the regular season has arrived. Let's end things strong with my top home run props and predictions for today's slate.
Find out why I am backing Yordan Alvarez, Jo Adell, and Jackson Merrill to go yard in my favorite MLB picks for Tuesday, Sept. 22.
MLB home run props for today
For help understanding Polymarket probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Player to hit a HR | Chance |
|---|---|
 Yordan Alvarez |
28% |
 Jo Adell |
18% |
 Jackson Merrill |
18% |
| 💲Today's HR parlay | 164.04x |
Home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez
We can finally trust the big fella once again, as Yordan Alvarez draws Seattle Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert.
The Houston Astros slugger sports a .559 SLG and .265 ISO while generating a hard-hit rate above 57% and a 14.3% barrel rate over his last 10 games.
Alvarez enters Tuesday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, where he also covers 100% of Gilbert’s pitch mix. Across 63 elite ratings this season, Alvarez has gone yard 22.22% of the time.
The last 30 left-handed hitters Gilbert has faced have posted a hard-hit rate above 52%, while barreling the ball 10.5% of the time. They also have a .460 xBA and .669 xSLG.
Take this up to 30%.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SEAM, SCHN
Home run prediction: Jo Adell
Another big fella we can back this evening is Cleveland Guardians slugger Jo Adell, who draws fan-favorite Boston Red Sox southpaw Payton Tolle. Although the left-hander has been wheeling and dealing, Tolle has struggled against right-handed hitters of late.
The last 60 right-handed bats the Red Sox have faced are making 50% hard contact with just a 28.9% ground-ball rate. They also own a .349 xBA and .633 xSLG during that span.
Adell has been killing southpaws all season, but he has been red hot over his last 60 at-bats, posting a .712 SLG and .347 ISO while keeping the ball elevated and owning a 17.1% barrel rate.
Take this to 20%.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NESN, CLEG
Home run prediction: Jackson Merrill
San Diego Padres youngster Jackson Merrill draws Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Roki Sasaki, who has gone back to his struggling ways. The last 60 lefties he's faced own a .417 xBA, .524 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.
Merrill, over his last 10 games, has maintained a 67.7% hard-hit rate, along with a .628 SLG and .233 ISO.
With Sasaki going from looking like he had turned things around to posting a 5.02 ERA and 5.48 xERA while allowing nearly 46% hard contact over his last three starts, I need to back a Padre.
Play to 20%.
- Time: 10:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: TBS
- HR picks: 133-450, +31.2 units
Best home run combo for September 22
| Yordan Alvarez |
Trade Now 164.04x |
| Jo Adell |
|
| Jackson Merrill |
Want more baseball parlays? Check out our MLB parlay picks page!
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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