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What Is An MLB Computer Pick?
MLB picks are bet suggestions based on our computer's assessment of the game. Tons of betting data goes into a computer pick, including pitching matchups, injury reports, analytics, and even recent betting trends.
MLB Picks
Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on Sept. 23, 2026.
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Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.63 |
+154 
|
o8.0 -110 
|
+1.5 -139 
|
|
3.87 |
-175 
|
u8.5 -125 
|
-1.5 +130
|
Washington
- Nationals are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
- Nationals are 4-0 in their last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.
- Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 games on grass.
Detroit
- Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-2 in Tigers last 5 home games.
- Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 home games.
- Under is 6-0 in Tigers last 6 interleague games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Dillon Dingler u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
u0.5+190
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.13 |
+105
|
o7.5 +105
|
+1.5 -225
|
|
4.33 |
-120
|
u7.5 -125
|
-1.5 +175
|
Toronto
- Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 5-1 in Blue Jays last 6 vs. American League East.
- Over is 8-2 in Blue Jays last 10 overall.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Scherzers last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Baltimore
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
- Under is 4-0 in Orioles last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Orioles are 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 7-1 in Bassitts last 8 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.43 |
-148 
|
o7.5 -113
|
-1.5 +118
|
|
3.21 |
+128
|
u8.0 -120 
|
+1.5 -135
|
Minnesota
- Over is 5-0 in Twins last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-1 in Twins last 7 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 7-2 in Twins last 9 interleague games as a favorite.
San Francisco
- Under is 4-0-1 in Giants last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Giants last 4 interleague games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Connor Prielipp o5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+120)
o4.5-159
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.45 |
-138
|
o7.5 -105
|
-1.5 +128
|
|
4.16 |
+120
|
u7.5 -113
|
+1.5 -144 
|
Milwaukee
- Brewers are 5-0 in Hendersons last 5 starts during game 2 of a series.
- Under is 4-0 in Hendersons last 4 starts vs. National League East.
- Brewers are 4-0 in their last 4 during game 2 of a series.
- Over is 7-1-1 in Brewers last 9 games as a road underdog.
Philadelphia
- Over is 3-0-1 in Phillies last 4 vs. National League Central.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Nolas last 7 starts a home underdog.
- Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as a home underdog.
- Over is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 games as an underdog.
Top Projection
Bryce Harper o0.5 Total RBIs (+207)
o0.5+207
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.19 |
+100
|
o7.5 -112
|
+1.5 -220
|
|
4.15 |
-113
|
u8.0 -115
|
-1.5 +165
|
St. Louis
- Over is 7-0 in Liberatores last 7 starts as a favorite.
- Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a road favorite.
- Cardinals are 5-0 in Liberatores last 5 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Liberatores last 4 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Pittsburgh
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 overall.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+135
|
o6.5 -139
|
+1.5 -175
|
|
4.03 |
-150
|
u7.5 -140
|
-1.5 +156
|
Tampa Bay
- Under is 5-0 in Rays last 5 vs. American League East.
- Rays are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 overall.
- Under is 5-1 in Rays last 6 games as a favorite.
NY Yankees
- Under is 4-0 in Coles last 4 starts vs. American League East.
- Over is 4-0 in Yankees last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Coles last 4 starts overall.
Top Projection
Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+300)
o0.5+300
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.88 |
+117
|
o7.0 -117
|
+1.5 -182
|
|
3.85 |
-130
|
u7.5 -117
|
-1.5 +168
|
Cleveland
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 overall.
- Over is 6-0 in Guardians last 6 games as a road underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 vs. American League East.
- Guardians are 5-0 in their last 5 games on grass.
Boston
- Red Sox are 5-0 in Grays last 5 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as a favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Red Sox last 4 games as an underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Grays last 4 starts as a favorite.
Top Projection
Jo Adell o0.5 Total RBIs (+208)
o0.5+208
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.95 |
+210
|
o7.5 +103
|
+1.5 -103
|
|
4.96 |
-245
|
u7.5 -120
|
-1.5 -105
|
Cincinnati
- Reds are 4-0 in Abbotts last 4 starts as a favorite.
- Under is 4-1-2 in Reds last 7 overall.
- Under is 2-0-2 in Reds last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
- Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 road games.
Atlanta
- Under is 5-0-1 in Sales last 6 starts as an underdog.
- Over is 5-0 in Braves last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Sales last 4 starts vs. National League Central.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Braves last 4 games as a favorite.
Top Projection
Eugenio Suarez o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+170)
o1.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.95 |
-110
|
o8.5 -109
|
-1.5 +150
|
|
4.99 |
+100
|
u9.0 -134
|
+1.5 -170
|
Chi. White Sox
- Under is 6-0 in Feddes last 6 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts vs. American League Central.
- White Sox are 7-0 in Feddes last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- White Sox are 5-0 in Feddes last 5 starts as an underdog.
Kansas City
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Under is 4-0-1 in Royals last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
- Over is 4-0 in Lugos last 4 starts as a favorite.
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.94 |
+150
|
o6.5 -132
|
+1.5 -150
|
|
4.77 |
-170
|
u7.0 -113
|
-1.5 +132
|
Miami
- Over is 6-0-1 in Marlins last 7 games as a favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Under is 4-0 in Gustos last 4 starts as a road underdog.
- Under is 4-0 in Gustos last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Chi. Cubs
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 games as a home favorite.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Cubs last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 5-1-1 in Cubs last 7 overall.
Top Projection
Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
o0.5+250
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4.52 |
-107
|
o7.5 -110
|
-1.5 +165
|
|
3.88 |
+100
|
u7.5 -105
|
+1.5 -166
|
NY Mets
- Under is 3-0-2 in McLeans last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
- Under is 3-0-1 in McLeans last 4 starts vs. American League West.
- Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road favorite.
- Mets are 4-0 in McLeans last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Texas
- Over is 6-0-1 in Rangers last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 4-0 in Rangers last 4 interleague home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Top Projection
Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+208)
o0.5+208
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6.42 |
-155
|
o10.5 -140
|
-1.5 -102
|
|
5.30 |
+135
|
u11.5 -132
|
+1.5 -112
|
Arizona
- Under is 5-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 6 road games.
- Under is 8-0-1 in Kellys last 9 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Diamondbacks last 4 games as a road underdog.
- Under is 3-0-1 in Kellys last 4 starts as a road favorite.
Colorado
- Over is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 vs. National League West.
- Over is 4-0 in Rockies last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-1-2 in Rockies last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Top Projection
Mickey Moniak o0.5 Total RBIs (+176)
o0.5+176
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
5.38 |
-129
|
o9.5 -105
|
-1.5 +125
|
|
4.74 |
+116
|
u9.5 -109
|
+1.5 -140
|
LA Angels
- Under is 7-2 in Urenas last 9 starts as a road underdog.
- Angels are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
- Over is 4-1 in Urenas last 5 starts on grass.
- Under is 4-1 in Urenas last 5 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Athletics
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 starts with 5 days of rest.
- Over is 6-0 in Springs' last 6 starts a home underdog.
- Over is 8-0 in Springs' last 8 home starts.
- Over is 5-0 in Springs' last 5 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Top Projection
Zack Gelof o1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+105)
o1.5+105
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.77 |
+185
|
o7.0 -200
|
+3.5 -286
|
|
5.08 |
-210
|
u8.5 -120
|
-3.5 +225
|
San Diego
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 road games.
- Over is 7-0 in Padres last 7 vs. National League West.
- Over is 8-0 in Padres last 8 games as a road favorite.
- Over is 4-0 in Padres last 4 during game 2 of a series.
LA Dodgers
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 overall.
- Dodgers are 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 games as a favorite.
- Over is 2-0-2 in Dodgers last 4 on grass.
Top Projection
Teoscar Hernandez o0.5 Total RBIs (+167)
o0.5+170
Predicted Score
Team |
Predicted Score |
ML |
Total |
Run Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3.82 |
+128
|
o7.5 -125
|
+1.5 -165
|
|
4.43 |
-140
|
u8.5 -127
|
-1.5 +145
|
Houston
- Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
- Under is 3-0-2 in Astros last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
- Astros are 6-0 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
- Under is 8-1 in Astros last 9 games as a favorite.
Seattle
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 starts on grass.
- Over is 3-0-1 in Kirbys last 4 starts with 6 days of rest.
- Over is 4-0 in Kirbys last 4 starts overall.
- Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 overall.
Top Projection
George Kirby o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-130)
o4.5-130
WAS
@
DET
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:10 PM ET
Spread
DET -1.5 (+121)
Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Play up to 50%. Detroit gets an ideal matchup against a Washington bullpen game, especially with the Tigers carrying a 128 wRC+ over the last week. The Nationals’ relief corps has been shaky and vulnerable to power, giving Detroit plenty of chances to build a multi-run cushion.
Total RBIs
Spencer Torkelson o0.5 Total RBIs (+202)
Projection 0.57
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Spencer Torkelson ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Spencer Torkelson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Among all major league stadiums, Comerica Park has the 3rd-lowest average fence height.. Built 602 feet above sea level, Comerica Park has the 9th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to better offense.. Spencer Torkelson will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.
TOR
@
BAL
Wed, Sep 23 • 1:35 PM ET
Total Home Runs
George Springer o0.5 Total Home Runs (+850)
Pick made: 17 hours ago
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
What's wrong with a little double-dip on Springer tonight? Not only does he have strong numbers against Bassitt (2 HR, .631 xSLG), but six of his 15 homers this year have come off breaking balls - and we all know the veteran righty loves to throw the kitchen sink at hitters. If someone is going yard tonight, Springer is the most likely candidate, and at +850, we can't turn down that price.
Total
o7.5 (+100)
Dustin Saracini
Senior Analyst
I'd price this closer to -110, so we're going to take advantage of this value. The Blue Jays see a familiar face on the bump in Chris Bassitt tonight, and while he's been fine over his last two starts, his 4.96 xERA suggests Toronto should be able to get to him. I'm expecting the Blue Jays to manufacture runs, with Bassitt posting a career-high xBA (.279) and career-low K rate (16.4%) this season. On the other side is Max Scherzer, who Baltimore just tagged for six earned runs 11 days ago. No matter how you slice it, tonight looks like we'll see some offensive fireworks.
MIN
@
SF
Wed, Sep 23 • 3:45 PM ET
Total Bases
Shay Whitcomb u1.5 Total Bases (-280)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive talent, Shay Whitcomb ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Shay Whitcomb is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.. The #2 venue in baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.. Oracle Park has the highest average fence height in the majors.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which tends to lead to lower offensive output.
Total RBIs
Royce Lewis o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.51
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
This game is expected to have the 4th-most humidity on the schedule today (78%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Cesar Perdomo throws from, Royce Lewis will have the upper hand in today's game.. Royce Lewis's launch angle this year (20.6°) is a considerable increase over his 17.5° figure last year.. Royce Lewis has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 26.81 ft/sec to 27.67 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).. Despite posting a .292 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Royce Lewis has had bad variance on his side given the .015 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .307.
MIL
@
PHI
Wed, Sep 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Moneyline
PHI (+121)
Jon Metler
Betting Analyst
The Philadelphia Phillies are trading as a 45% underdog on Polymarket, and I'm hitting the button at that price, as I make them closer to a 49% underdog against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday. The edge really comes down to the sense of urgency for both teams. The Phillies are locked in a three-way battle for seeding in the NL Wild Card race, while the Brewers are in the driver's seat for the top seed in the NL and have already clinched a bye into the NLDS. I'd expect the Brewers to prioritize pitch-count preservation for Logan Henderson and their high-leverage bullpen arms, while the Phillies will be managing this game with a greater sense of urgency.
Moneyline
MIL (-136)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Milwaukee has won eight of its last 10, and I like the pitching advantage with Logan Henderson. The right-hander owns a 2.51 ERA and 0.81 WHIP and has allowed just eight earned runs over his last five starts. Philadelphia counters with Aaron Nola and a bullpen carrying a 4.34 ERA. With the Brewers owning MLB's best record and getting the better starter and relief corps, -136 is a price I'm willing to lay.
TB
@
NYY
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:05 PM ET
Total Bases
Cedric Mullins o1.5 Total Bases (+280)
Projection 1.23
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Cedric Mullins will hold the platoon advantage against Gerrit Cole today.. Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Cedric Mullins has been unlucky this year, notching a .276 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .031 difference.
Total Bases
Jonathan Aranda o1.5 Total Bases (+180)
Projection 1.52
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Among all stadiums, Yankee Stadium has the 8th-lowest average fence height.. Jonathan Aranda will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gerrit Cole today.
CLE
@
BOS
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:10 PM ET
Total
u7.5 (-120)
Chris Vasile
Publishing Editor
Sonny Gray has been excellent down the stretch, posting a 2.61 ERA over his last five starts while averaging six innings per outing. Four of those five games finished with seven runs or fewer. Foster Griffin has a 3.06 ERA of his own and held Boston to one run over five innings earlier this season. With two starters capable of working deep, I'm backing Under 7.5.
Total Hits
Isiah Kiner-Falefa u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.75
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When estimating his overall offensive ability, Isiah Kiner-Falefa ranks in the 15th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game.. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which often leads to worse offense.. According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this contest will be the most favorable for pitching on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the best of the day for mound aces.
CIN
@
ATL
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:15 PM ET
Total Bases
Austin Riley u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.83
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Total Bases
Sean Murphy u1.5 Total Bases (-250)
Projection 0.71
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Sean Murphy is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today's game.. Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.. Out of all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Cincinnati Reds.. Sean Murphy has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 13.1% rate last year has dropped off to 7.9% this year.. Sean Murphy's average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 89-mph EV last season has dropped off to 86.7-mph.
CHW
@
KC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Munetaka Murakami u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.73
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The deepest RF fences in the majors are found in Kauffman Stadium.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.6-mph in this match-up, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams today.. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.. Munetaka Murakami is in the 1st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (35.8% rate this year).
Total Bases
Andrew Benintendi u1.5 Total Bases (-225)
Projection 0.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.6-mph in this match-up, the 7th-most-favorable of the day for mound aces.. Andrew Benintendi pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's deepest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Kansas City Royals infield defense projects as the 2nd-best out of all the teams today.. Andrew Benintendi will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.. Andrew Benintendi's launch angle this year (17°) is quite a bit worse than his 20.6° mark last season.
MIA
@
CHC
Wed, Sep 23 • 7:40 PM ET
Total Bases
Heriberto Hernandez o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.56
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Heriberto Hernandez is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation among all major league stadiums. High elevation often leads to better offense.. This game is forecasted to have the 2nd-highest humidity of all games on the slate (82%); there is a small yet noteworthy correlation with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Heriberto Hernandez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.9% — 93rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.
Total Bases
Michael Conforto u1.5 Total Bases (-260)
Projection 0.69
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Among all parks, Wrigley Field's right field dimensions are the 5th-deepest.. In MLB, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Michael Conforto's true offensive talent to be a .314, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .035 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .349 wOBA.. Michael Conforto has put up a .223 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
NYM
@
TEX
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:05 PM ET
Total Hits
Corey Seager u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.93
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Globe Life Field as the 2nd-worst stadium in the majors for left-handed batting average.. Among all major league stadiums, Globe Life Field's CF dimensions are the 6th-deepest.. Corey Seager is not very toolsy, ranking in the 6th percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.03 ft/sec this year.. By putting up a .269 BABIP this year, Corey Seager grades out in the 23rd percentile.
Total Bases
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (+127)
Projection 2.01
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 3rd-best batter in the league.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Globe Life Field is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. The Globe Life Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this game 114° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.
AZ
@
COL
Wed, Sep 23 • 8:40 PM ET
Total RBIs
Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Ketel Marte ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ketel Marte is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Despite posting a .322 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ketel Marte has been unlucky given the .027 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .349.
Total Bases
Mickey Moniak o1.5 Total Bases (+134)
Projection 1.81
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Coors Field as the best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in the majors, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.. Mickey Moniak will hold the platoon advantage over Merrill Kelly in today's game.. Mickey Moniak may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.
LAA
@
ATH
Wed, Sep 23 • 9:40 PM ET
Strikeouts Thrown
Walbert Urena u5.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-160)
Projection 4.12
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Walbert Urena to throw 85 pitches in today's game (11th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Felix Neon profiles as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate today.. The #6 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Sutter Health Park.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.. Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Walbert Urena in today's matchup.
Total RBIs
Mike Trout o0.5 Total RBIs (+140)
Projection 0.79
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Mike Trout ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the game.. Mike Trout is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Sutter Health Park as the best stadium in MLB for RHB home runs.. In Major League Baseball, Sutter Health Park has the 4th-lowest average fence height.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report expects the hottest temperature of all games on the slate today at 86°.
SD
@
LAD
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total RBIs
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.49
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Kyle Tucker ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Dodger Stadium projects as the #2 venue in baseball for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Kyle Tucker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Cracking 5 HRs over the last 14 days, Kyle Tucker has been on fire lately.
Total Bases
Will Smith o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.88
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Will Smith ranks as the 16th-best batter in the game.. Will Smith is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. The #2 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Dodger Stadium.. Dodger Stadium has the lowest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Will Smith will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray in today's matchup.
HOU
@
SEA
Wed, Sep 23 • 10:10 PM ET
Total Bases
Christian Walker o1.5 Total Bases (+220)
Projection 1.32
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When assessing his home run talent, Christian Walker ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. T-Mobile Park has the 10th-lowest fence height (on average) among all major league parks.. Homers are generally more common at stadiums with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest in the majors.. Out of all the teams in action today, the worst infield defense is that of the Seattle Mariners.. Based on Statcast data, Christian Walker grades out in the 78th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 26.400.
Strikeouts Thrown
George Kirby o4.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-135)
Projection 5.68
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Throwing 93.7 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, George Kirby places in the 85th percentile.. Cal Raleigh, the Mariners's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. T-Mobile Park ranks as the #2 venue in baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. T-Mobile Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. George Kirby will hold the platoon advantage against 7 opposing bats in this matchup.
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How To Use MLB Computer Picks
You can use the tables above to help with your bets during the MLB season. The first section includes free, computer-generated picks for daily Major League Baseball games. Baseball bettors can choose to follow the computer, fade the computer, or simply use our computer picks as one element of their betting strategy.
This page also tees up access to deeper betting trends. For example, if a club's run line is favored, you can check their ATS trends, potentially opening up some quality underdog bets.
If you're ready to get started with MLB betting, visit our dedicated page highlighting the best MLB betting sites.
Moneyline
This is the most common and easiest wager for a bettor to make when it comes to MLB picks. Basically, to win an MLB moneyline pick, you just have to choose which team will win the game.
It's simple: if you bet the White Sox moneyline over the Red Sox and Chicago wins, you win your bet.
Run line
The run line is another name for a point spread that you may be more familiar with in NBA and NFL betting. A point spread varies in the NFL and NBA from as little as 0.5 points up to double-digit spreads. A baseball run line is almost always a 1.5-point spread.
The favorite will be -1.5 while the underdog will be +1.5. At the end of the game, if you take away 1.5 runs from the favorite or add 1.5 runs to the underdog and they end up winning the game, you win your MLB pick against the spread.
Totals (Over/Under)
Another common wager is to bet on the total in baseball, which is a bet on the total runs scored in the baseball game. You are simply choosing whether the final score will be Over or Under that total. Betting the Over/Under on a matchup is a great way to get started in MLB score predictions.
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More MLB Picks & Betting Tools
NRFI/YRFI MLB Picks
A new and emerging MLB betting market is the NRFI/YRFI bet. These are quick-hitters in which you make a wager on the O/U total of the first inning, typically set at 0.5 runs. Thus, the bet is coined as No Run First Inning or Yes Run First Inning. No need to wait a couple of hours to cash a bet when it could be done in 20 minutes or less.
First Five Innings MLB Picks
The above options, moneyline, run line, and Over/Under, can also be placed on the first five innings of a game rather than the full game. Many experienced bettors will use this approach because, typically, this will take bullpens out of the equation and make your job researching the game easier. After all, you can just focus on the starting pitchers.
MLB Picks And Parlays
If you want to combine multiple games into one mega wager, you may consider making a parlay bet. A parlay is when you pick two or more MLB games on one single betting ticket, which will increase the payout of your bet.
But it also comes with more risk, as each of those MLB picks must hit for your ticket to pay out. Our parlay calculator is a great tool to find out what your potential payout would be.
If you're looking for more MLB picks content, check out our consensus picks and prop bets pages to get your fix. While you're at it, head over to our MLB promos page to get the best bang for your buck.
MLB Player Props
Player props are a great way to hone in on an individual matchup for a game. These types of wagers will be individualized for a player: Will Shohei Ohtani hit a home run? Will Gerrit Cole get seven strikeouts? Will Paul Skenes allow two earned runs?
You simply choose whether this outcome will happen or not. Keeping up to date on daily pitching matchups and batters on a hot streak can give you a huge boost when placing player prop bets.
MLB Futures Picks
Lastly, prior to the season and even throughout the season, you can place futures bets on all the long-term awards and outcomes. You can lock in an MLB pick on who will win their division, which squad will win the World Series, or even who will win the Rookie of the Year, MVP, or Cy Young.
MLB Free Picks FAQs
When do we release our MLB picks?
Covers’ MLB picks release on game day. Some significant matchups like playoff games release in the days leading up to the game.
What kinds of MLB picks do we make?
Covers provides free MLB picks covering many markets, including run lines, totals, moneylines, player props, and more.
